The 2008 Mclaren/Ferrari battle - Who will come out on top?

As has been the case in previous years, during the last decade, this season’s championship is a fierce battle between Ferrari and Mclaren. BMW have looked a threat so far this season but at the moment it seems they are slipping back and I can’t see them winning the races they need to challenge for the championship. Like last season, in my view, it’s a straight fight between Ferrari and Mclaren with the others playing cameo roles.

Last season both challengers were vastly different. Ferrari had a long wheelbase car, which worked beautifully on fast and flowing tracks such as Silverstone, Magny-Cours, Istanbul and Malaysia. Mclaren’s car was superb in slow corners and could attack the kerbs with ease. Therefore the Mclaren worked well at tracks such as: Monte-Carlo, Montreal and Monza.

Throughout the 2007 season the teams took it in turns to dominate races when the track either suited Ferrari or Mclaren better.

So how is the battle faring so far this season?

The design philosophies from both teams have changed somewhat this season. Over the winter and during the start of this season both Mclaren and Ferrari have worked extremely hard to cure the weaknesses of their cars and fine-tune the areas where they were losing big chunks of time to one another last season. Ferrari made their wheelbase shorter and has adopted the J-Damper (a spring type device on the suspension) successfully onto their car. Both these two elements have helped the car in the slower corners and ride the kerbs with more ease. At Monaco in 2007 Ferrari were thrashed by Mclaren. This season they annexed the front row and had enough pace to stay in front, but it rained, which made the race wide open in the end.

Mclaren have always been good on the slower circuits but they have worked very hard on being faster on the fast circuits. Mclaren has never been slow on the fast circuits, the big Achilles heel is that in the fast corners the Mclaren has always been too hard on its tyres. The Ferrari on the other hand is always very easy on its tyres. Therefore the Mclaren is always able to match Ferrari’s pace on the first lap (i.e. qualifying) on a fast circuit but over the long distance the Ferrari can stretch its legs as the tyres can hold throughout the stints. Mclaren have definitely shown signs of improvement this season in this aspect. In Turkey, notoriously a Ferrari circuit, Mclaren took the battle to them (Hamilton matched Raikkonen’s fastest race lap), however Ferrari still held the edge. In Spain and Malaysia, which are both very fast circuits too, Ferrari were still able to dominate despite Mclaren’s improvements. For a comparison between the two teams in Spain Raikkonen was around 0.3 to 0.4 seconds faster per lap than Hamilton.

Who has been able to make the most ground on their main weakness from last season?

The answer to that question is definitely Ferrari, on slow tracks I feel Ferrari have improved sufficiently enough to be able to challenge for victory (as shown in Monaco). Mclaren on the other hand, even though they clearly have made their car better suited for fast circuits, still lack the pace compared to Ferrari. Due to some of the penalties Mclaren have received this season, particularly in France, it is a little harder to gauge exactly how much they have improved on the fast circuits, but I think most would agree that Ferrari still rules the roost on this type of circuit.

The simple conclusion to make is that Ferrari have closed the gap significantly more to Mclaren on the Mclaren circuits whereas Ferrari still in my opinion maintain a clear advantage on the Ferrari tracks. This is very key towards the outcome of this championship.

Mclaren are still very competitive this season and will challenge for the championship until the latter stages. However, overall, they have lost a bit of ground to Ferrari compared to last season.

A useful advantage that does still remain in Mclaren’s favour though is that on a low grip or a bumpy surface their car still fares better than the Ferrari. There was strong evidence of that on the crumbling track in Montreal where the Mclaren seemed faster. In qualifying in Montreal Lewis Hamilton was 9 tenths faster than Raikkonen’s Ferrari. Also in Melbourne, which is always a low grip track, as it is only used for racing two or three times a year, the Mclaren again seemed the stronger car. Mclaren got a 1-2 in the fastest lap charts, 0.5 seconds faster than Kimi Raikkonen’s Ferrari.

Bearing all of these facts in mind here is a track-by-track guide explaining who should have the upperhand in the rest of the races this season.

As explained, last season it was much easier to pick who would win the races, this year there are more events, which are closer to call, as is the nature of the way Mclaren and Ferrari have developed their cars this season.

Britain

Silverstone is one of the ultimate fast circuits; the first corner (Copse) is taken at 190 mph. This leads onto Maggotts and Becketts which see incredibly fast direction changes. Bridge is another incredible fast corner on the track. The only slow part of the track is the final few corners (designed to entertain the VIP guests), which are very technical and fiddly. Overall the Ferrari should work brilliantly around this track as it did last season. A saving grace for Mclaren is that the track is particularly bumpy in places but this won’t be a big enough factor for Mclaren to be able to fight equally with Ferrari.

VERDICT: Comfortable advantage for Ferrari. They ought to get a 1-2 finish as in Magny-Cours

Germany

This season the German GP returns to Hockenheim. The current track layout is a mix of fast and slow corners. For instance turn 2 is taken in second gear followed by a long sweeping straight followed by an extremely tight hairpin taken at just 25 mph. Most of the track follows this slow corner followed by fast corner sequence. This is apart from the final section known as the stadium. This is the slowest sequence of the track just as on the old layout of the circuit. Ferrari has the best recent record here with a 1-2 finish in 2006, the last time Formula 1 raced at this circuit.

VERDICT: Ferrari to have the edge but Mclaren should be able to challenge

Hungary

The Hungarian track is very tight and twisty and consists of many slow corners. It is often described by many in F1 as Monte-Carlo without walls. The track should suit the Mclaren pretty well. They have a very good recent history here. Hamilton won for them here last season, Raikkonen got pole in 2006 despite Mclaren not being very fast that season and Raikkonen dominated the 2005 race. This is a race, which Mclaren will most definitely have to win but Ferrari will be a lot more competitive than recent Hungarian GPs.

VERDICT: Mclaren and Ferrari will be very even here but Mclaren will have a slight edge

Europe (Valencia)

A new track is always a big challenge when attacked for the first time. Neither Mclaren nor Ferrari will have any previous data so will have a lot of work to do on the Friday of this event. New tracks can always cause surprises and if Mclaren or Ferrari drops the ball they could easily drop points. Looking at the track layout a similar sequence occurs throughout the lap, which is a sweeping straight (of varying lengths) followed a slow and tight section, then another sweeping straight and so on for the whole lap. Overall I feel this is another track which should provide us with another tight Mclaren-Ferrari battle. The Mclaren will be in its element in the tight fiddly sections and the Ferrari will purr on the sweeping straights. What could give Mclaren the slight advantage is it is a street circuit and it will be used for F1 for the first time so the track may not offer a lot of grip which as mentioned before suits the Mclaren better than the Ferrari.

VERDICT: New track can upset the formbook but in principle Mclaren are likely to have a slight edge.

Belgium

Like Silverstone and Magny-Cours, Spa is an extremely fast circuit with not many slow corners. A lot of the bends are taken at very high speeds like the incredible Eau Rouge corner, and turns 16 and 17 taken at more less full throttle, heading towards the new bus stop chicane. Last year Ferrari absolutely walloped Mclaren in the race and I would expect Ferrari to hold an advantage there again this season. Albeit it will be closer than last season, but come the chequered flag I expect Ferrari to have won comfortably. It does very often rain in Belgium though which can turn the race upside down. Ferrari will be hoping it stays dry so they can make the most of their likely advantage.

VERDICT: Ferrari should be a comfortable winner here but showers are always a possibility, which could bring Mclaren back into the game.

Italy

Monza is the fastest track on the calendar and all the teams bring different aero configurations for this race. Last season Mclaren dominated the race due to their ability to ride the kerbs better than Ferrari. This year it will be a very different race as Ferrari is now a lot better over the kerbs as explained earlier. Also their straight-line speed advantage is improved over last season. With this in mind I think Ferrari will have closed the gap right up to Mclaren. Mclaren will still be very strong also so I think it is very hard to pick a winner here.

VERDICT: Mclaren and Ferrari will be locked in an extremely tight battle here, I can’t pick a likely winner.

Singapore

Like the European GP this is a brand new track so this will cause headaches for both Mclaren and Ferrari, as they try to find the perfect setup for this race. A new interesting variable is that this will be a night race. At night the track temperatures will be a lot lower than they would normally be during the day so grip will be at a premium on this circuit, along with the fact it is the only time that the streets of Singapore will be used for racing. The track itself is a mixture of straights and slow corners so overall Ferrari and Mclaren will be well matched. However due to the low amount of grip there is likely to be due to racing on the streets at night I think Mclaren will have the advantage.

VERDICT: Mclaren will have the edge for the first night race at Singapore.

Japan

The F1 circus will be coming to Fuji for the second time. Last season we never saw who had the advantage as the race was soaking wet. Overall I feel that in dry conditions Ferrari should have an advantage here. The gigantic main straight is 1.5km long. With Ferrari’s straight-line speed advantage they should gain time there. Also the first two sectors of the lap are fairly quick before the slow fiddly final sector. Mclaren should be strong too but I think Ferrari will be a few tenths clear here. However rain is always a strong possibility in Fuji and this will make it a very close race.

VERDICT: Ferrari will have an edge here but the probability of rain is very high so we may never get to see that advantage.

China

This is a very bland and very technical circuit, which doesn’t really suit either team particularly. Overall it’s a mixture of fast and slow sections. It will be a very close fight but if you are looking for where the advantage will lie I would give it to Ferrari. Again with the straight-line speed advantage that the car has it will purr by the 1km back straight and nearly equally long pit straight. Again though like Fuji there is a high risk of rain to mix things up. The last two GPs in China have both been wet. In the latter stages of the championship this could really tilt it in either direction.

VERDICT: A fairly even circuit but Ferrari has the slightest of edges due to straight-line speed advantage.

Brazil

The last race of the season has a bit of everything in it. A couple of long straights, fast corners, slow corners, bumps and rain. Interlagos has delivered great racing in the past. There are features that will suit both cars really well. This makes Brazil the ideal place to host the world championship showdown. However Ferrari have dominated the last two races here so overall they will have the slight edge being very fast in a straight line and the now much smoother surface which the car likes. But as with the last two races rain is always a looming threat.

VERDICT: Ferrari will have an advantage but Mclaren should be close enough to compete.

Summary

Looking back at my predictions for each of the races it is clear to see that Ferrari does have an advantage. They have 2 or 3 races which they should be able to dominate (Belgium and Britain) and there is never a track where Mclaren are likely to dominate since Ferrari have made more progress in their weak areas than Mclaren have in theirs. So Ferrari can be confident that they can compete for victory in every single race. Mclaren on the other hand will have to play the damage limitations card at Silverstone and Spa and then on the tracks where they have the slightest of edges, or can compete evenly with Ferrari, they have to ensure that they win most of these races. They can’t afford to drop many of those races otherwise they will be too far behind in both championships.

As Ferrari and Mclaren appear quite close on most tracks team tactics and pit stops may become more vital than ever before. The championship could indeed be won or lost on the pit wall. Another factor caused by Mclaren and Ferrari appearing closer, is they may go wheel-to-wheel more than last season. This could end up in the odd disaster.

The key thing to this championship is that Ferrari and Mclaren have to win the races where they are faster. If Ferrari were to drop the ball in Spa or Silverstone then it would do them a fair bit of damage championship wise. It would be a huge opportunity missed. Mclaren for example missed a big opportunity in Canada where a comfortable win was likely. Instead with the pit lane demeanor the team ended up with nil points at what was likely to be their strongest track of the season advantage wise.

The weather could well have something to say about the championship. Mclaren will hope that it rains at Silverstone and Spa as it means they can close the advantage Ferrari have and win on a Ferrari track. Ferrari may want it to rain in Hungary or Valencia. Dropping points due to wet race disasters may have a big contribution towards the championship.

Ferrari and Mclaren will both continue to work hard on their shortcomings so that they can try and alter my current verdicts for each track to their advantage. Mclaren need to stop Ferrari being dominant at Silverstone and Spa, Ferrari will want a clear advantage at the slower tracks where Mclaren still maintain a slight advantage. The development race as well as the on-track race will have a huge bearing on the final result. Mclaren showed this week that they have made a few in-roads in the test at Silverstone so we will see if they have closed the gap or not and stop Ferrari dominating at Silverstone which they really need to do.

And lets not forget the reliability of the cars. Reliability doesn’t really pay a huge part in Formula 1 anymore, as the cars are so reliable these days. Between Mclaren and Ferrari however, Ferrari are more at risk to a failure. The Mclaren is more or less bulletproof but as shown in Magny-Cours, with Kimi Raikkonen’s exhaust problems the Ferrari is not perfect reliability wise and retiring from the lead of a race would make a huge difference to the championship.

Final Conclusion

When doing this comparison between Mclaren and Ferrari and taking a close look at the rest of the tracks we have in store for us between now and the end of the season Ferrari should take both championships. Ferrari has the potential to win the rest of the races whereas Mclaren still fall a bit short to the Ferrari at a couple of tracks.

Another important factor is that I rate Ferrari’s pit wall and tacticians higher than I do Mclaren’s. Mclaren come up with some weird tactics, which don’t seem to work and Ferrari more often than not get it right, particularly under immense pressure. With Ferrari and Mclaren close together at various events now this strength in Ferrari’s favour becomes very important. You don’t really need good tacticians if your car is dominant but as I have explained Mclaren are very unlikely to be dominant, anywhere for the rest of the season unless there is a dramatic improvement somewhere down the line.

Driver wise I feel Mclaren have too in-experienced a driver line-up. Mclaren have put all of their eggs in Lewis Hamilton’s basket and you sense the pressure is beginning to tell and errors occurring losing the team points. A reliable and experienced driver who can deliver every single weekend is sorely missed at the moment. Ferrari has a young but experienced driver pairing, which is working very well for the team. On the negative side both drivers are locked together in the championship battle, which could let Hamilton back in if, they are not careful.

So for a final prediction, Mclaren will win a few more races this season but I feel Ferrari will be able to win more races and will make less mistakes and wrong calls than Mclaren and their drivers. Ferrari should be able to win both championships comfortably in the end unless they really lose their head. However in F1 you never know what can happen.