Andrew Bynum: Will He be Crushed by the Weight of Expectation?

In the aftermath of the Lakers’ latest capitulation to the Celtics in the NBA Finals, many within the Los Angeles sports community have suggested that having Andrew Bynum in uniform would have reversed the outcome of the series. 

Of course, many of these same “experts” boldly predicted a Lakers' sweep or (at the very least) a 4-1 series victory, even without Bynum in the lineup.  Well, the latest thing we’re hearing from this vocal crowd is just how great the Lakers will be next season with Bynum returning from knee surgery. 

To such fans, a healthy Bynum virtually guarantees a return to the NBA Finals, where the Lakers will undoubtedly sweep or (at the very least) crush by a 4-1 margin whatever team emerges from the “weak” Eastern Conference. 

Is Bynum really that good?  Will he be able to return from knee surgery (performed about a month ago), regain his NBA fitness, and overcome the psychological scars associated with his injury to post the kind of numbers that his eager fans expect of him?

Assessing just how good Bynum is presents difficulties because he has only played one full season, his second in the NBA.  In 2006-'07, as the Lakers’ starting center (53 of 82 games), Bynum averaged 7.8 points per game on 56 percent field goal shooting, while grabbing 5.9 rebounds per game. 

For purposes of comparison, let’s look at the numbers for Leon Powe who, at times, played as the Boston Celtics’ third string center behind Kendrick Perkins and PJ Brown (and even Brian Scalabrine) this past season, his second in the NBA. 

Like Bynum, Powe is a young and talented player, whose second year numbers have been surprisingly similar.  Powe scored 7.9 points per game on 57 percent field goal shooting, while grabbing 4.1 rebounds per game in 2007-'08. 

Bynum obviously had the edge in terms of rebounding. But when you consider he played 50 percent more minutes than Powe (22 versus 14.5), that rebounding margin doesn’t look quite so impressive. Especially when you consider that Bynum also enjoys a four inch height advantage. 

What does this tell us?  During his only full season in the NBA, the Lakers' starting center put up numbers that were comparable to those put up by a third string center/power forward for the Boston Celtics who happened to play seven fewer minutes per game.

Of course, before his season-ending injury in January, Bynum began to put up numbers that started to justify the hype surrounding him, nearly doubling the scoring and rebounding averages he posted during the 2006-'07 season.  More importantly, Bynum began to establish himself as a better interior defender by blocking roughly two shots per game. 

According to Bryant, that interior defense would have made the difference in the championship series: “He gives us a presence in the middle that we didn't have in the Finals.  He's a shot-blocker. So now guys coming down the middle, Pierce laying the ball in, he's got to think about that now and shoot floaters because Bynum is naturally a shot-blocker.” 

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