Player: Casey McGehee
Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Fantasy Baseball Search Breakout Rank: 4/30
Casey McGehee was a pleasant surprise in 2009. In 355 at-bats, McGehee hit 16 home runs and batted .301. While he never showed that kind of power in the minors, McGehee found a stroke, and he was consistently hitting the ball out of the part.
Our choice of him as a breakout player isn't because he's going to smoke his 2009 stats. I know many sabermetrics guys are going to come out and tell you to avoid McGehee. They’ll use the standby excuses because the numbers don't add up, like "he was lucky" or "he'll regress."
While it is entirely possible that McGehee was lucky or that he could regress, I don't think it will happen.
At 27, Casey McGehee is in his prime and finally got a chance to play full-time, and we saw how good he was. I expect more of the same from him and even a bit better. While I expect his home run rate will decline from 1:24 at-bats to 1:27, his average should get better as he adjusts to the major league pitchers.
If you decide to draft McGehee, draft him late. He is an excellent choice for a late-round third baseman if you weren't able to draft a top-notch one. He will give you power and average but gives you zero speed. His current ADP is 237th pick, which puts him in the 20th round. I think grabbing McGehee anywhere after round 16 is a steal.
2010 Projections: .307 BA, 24 HRs, 103 RBI, 79 Runs, 1 SB
I feel this player will achieve my projections through our formula based on 11 herbs and spices (it's locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season.
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