A few years ago, NBA Commissioner David Stern and NCAA President Myles Brand came together and established the one year rule, which states that an incoming NBA player must be out of high school for at least one year prior to the draft. The rule was stated as a move to lead high school players into college to help them mature and get an education.
In reality, it was a financially driven move by both sides. NBA owners could see these anointed high school prodigies for at least a year in college to help weed out the busts.
Meanwhile, big conference college programs could essentially rent these players out for at least a season and reap huge profits and program notoriety. It was a win-win situation, and there has been talk of expanding the rule to two years out of college.
Proponents of the program claim the rule is a safeguard for high school seniors who are egged on by their peers to go straight to the NBA but aren’t ready or at least good enough to get drafted in the first round. Others say that it’s the right of these players to jump ship if they feel like it.
Some of today’s best young players made the transition straight from high school with immediate success: LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and Amare Stoudemire. All of these players were physically ready to enter the league, and that is the main difference between modern high school prep stars and the ones in the days of Kobe and KG.
Greg Oden was physically able to play in the NBA out of high school. Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo could’ve been playing in the league for a year now, and their success or struggles would have nothing to do with their physicality.
In the last high school draft classes, even the high school players that misjudged their decisions ended up having more success then failure.
Here is the last high school draft class (2005):
Martell Webster, 6th overall
Andrew Bynum, 11th overall
Gerald Green, 18th overall
C.J. Miles, 34th overall
Monta Ellis, 40th overall
Just three years later, all but one of these players have made their mark on a team.
Webster is starting to emerge as another scorer in Portland. Bynum has developed into one of the league's most promising young centers. Ellis is one of the league’s most electrifying players.
Miles has turned into a defensive force and would get a lot more playing time if not for the great depth in Utah. Green is the only one that hasn’t truly panned out because he is still mentally a kid, but he did dunk while blowing out a cupcake—and no one else can say that.
An 80 percent success rate is pretty good and is easily competitive with players drafted from overseas. A lot of high school players have to mature into their bodies before making it in the NBA, but so do many European players.
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But those from across the Atlantic and beyond get paid for their development, while American kids aren’t enjoying the same ability to make a living from their best talent.
The argument that the rule is protecting players isn’t true—it is just delaying the inevitable. College players are still very young in age and there is a good batch of them that make the mistake of coming out early each year.
The draft a couple of days ago had no high school players, but Davon Jefferson and DeAndre Jordan can tell you they made a mistake by coming out early. There are a handful of players who make a bad decision for every Chase Budinger that stays in college.
So what am I getting at? A week ago Brandon Jennings, the second ranked PG prospect in the country, finally became the voice of reason and said it like it is. He said he has absolutely no interest in going to Arizona to get an education. He basically said he’s going there because he has to. That is how many of these players ultimately feel.
Could you imagine someone telling LeBron at 6’8”, 245 pounds of chiseled muscle at his graduation that he wasn’t ready for the NBA? I didn’t think so. Jennings feels he is basically in limbo, waiting to get into the NBA.
Now Jennings sees a way out. He is the first high school star to seriously consider going to Europe and capitalizing on the same development the European players enjoy. If he goes he is expected to earn the American equivalent of $200,000-$500,000 for the year.
Considering that in the States he can only make a couple grand according to NCAA rules if he has a job, without any proceeds from his jersey sales and marketing, plus the fact that he won’t get a degree, Europe seems like the logical choice.
On top of that, he would play against weaker competition then in big time college basketball, making it easier for him to dominate and preserve his high draft stock. Going to Europe involves less risk with more reward.
In all honesty, I’m surprised it’s taken this long for someone to wake up and consider the opportunity. Considering the growing pool of international players in the NBA, the trip overseas is a good learning experience.
If Jennings goes through with this and plays well in Europe, he will be a top five pick in next year’s draft and have some money to his credit in the process. This will inevitably start a chain reaction of players heading overseas instead of big time college programs.
They would circumvent the intent of the rule, and the NBA would lose valuable scouting information and essentially lose these players for a season to European leagues. College basketball would revert to what it was a few years ago and would thus have no incentive to hold on to the rule—and there’s nothing the NBA can do about it.
Ultimately, if Jennings makes the right personal decision it will signal the end of this rule. The pretense of allowing these young kids to get an education will be thrown out the window. In the end, it’s a money game, and if the NBA is going to lose the revenue these players can bring in for a season to European leagues, Commissioner Stern won’t stand for it.
Unless Myles Brand and the NCAA actually start sharing the mega-millions of dollars that the basketball players rake in, the one-year deal is officially on life support. And as the BCS debacle has shown us, college presidents don’t like to give up money for any reason.
The NBA is not the NFL. Players can come into the league at 18 years of age and contribute to a team. Brandon Jennings is playing the Maurice Clarett role of trying to break down an age rule. Clarett never had a chance because the NFL truly is a monopoly in its field, and because common sense says you have to be a certain age before grown men start trying to smash your head off.
But even in Clarett’s efforts there was a possible exception to the rule. Along with Clarett there were six high school football players who tried to get into the NFL. One of them was Adrian Peterson. Looking back at his freshman year at Oklahoma—and what he did as a NFL rookie—perhaps he was ready.
In the case of the NBA, there is competition from leagues overseas both in their basketball and in their currency. The U.S. Dollar is weakening with every record-setting day for oil prices, and inflation continues to rise.
International players eligible for the NBA are now signing long-term deals in Europe more often and are ultimately passing on playing in the NBA for better money in Euros overseas.
And for the first time ever, an international player that proved himself in the NBA and would’ve netted a sizable contract chose to play overseas instead.
Juan Carlos Navarro was a promising SG for the Grizzlies and could’ve made somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million for a new contract, but instead he chose to go back to Spain.
If Jennings goes to a major European powerhouse like CSKA Moscow, Real Madrid, Panathinaikos, Partizan, or Maccabi Tel Aviv, and helps them win a Euroleague or country championship, it will start a bidding war for high school basketball standouts.
As far as the NBA and NCAA, are concerned that would be the nail in the coffin.
Since this is America, and Jennings has freedom of choice like every other American, this one-year rule might as well rest in peace.
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2 months ago
Great article! Very informative and nicely written. I hope your predictions prove true, because few people beyond those making the money believe that requiring NBA prospects to log one year in college is a great idea. Presumably, these guys are 18 (or close to it) when they graduate from high school, so why not allow them to make their own decisions as adults?
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment. amen.
2 months ago
Man that was absolutely an outstanding article!! I agree with you on every point. 18 yrs old, can go to war, can be tried as an adult, is now responsible for their own taxes, but cannot choose to make a career for themselves for a year due to special interest groups (NBA & NCAA). I hope he goes!!! If you could, check my article out about the very same thing. Leave some feedback.....
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment, will do.
2 months ago
I have some inside contacts that tell me he could be leaning towards playing in Italy... From your opinion is that a good league for him to play in competition wise. I heard it was but I need to do more research on my euro leagues since my intensions are becoming an agent.
from 2 months ago
the Italian league doesn't have a marquis team like a lot of the others but is considered by many the best all-around league in Europe.
2 months ago
This is an interesting article with a lot of great points. I don't think that Jennings' decision will destroy the rule because there is more exposure to scouts and teams by playing even just a season in college, and quriky rule differences overseas make it difficult to accurately judge post players. Still, I'm surprised that a graduating senior hadn't decided to forgo college and go earn a contract overseas for a year for the monetary incentive off the bat.
2 months ago
Well, there are a lot of scouts in Europe now. With more and more Euros making the jump to the nba, every team has a group of scouts that do nothing but keep track of the Euro leagues. Also, if more high school players decide to make this leap, you can bet that the scouts will follow. With more american kids in the game, it might not be so unresonible to assume that major TV networks might start picking up some of the games. Honestly, I can't think of any reason why you WOULDN'T want to play in Europe, get paid, and develop your game. The Italian league is very good, and might actually offer opportunities to hone some parts of the game that Europeans covet...such as shooting. All these kids aleady know how to play American ball, and may in fact learn very little from a short stint in college. The fallacy that the one-year rule is for "personal improvement" is laughfable. These kids seldom go to class and have no intention of earning a degree. If their NBA career does stagnate, having twelve college hours of credit isn't going to help them. I also feel that there are probably less opportunities to get into trouble in the European leagues. These kids would be unknown players in a country where they didn't speak the language. That would force them to hang out with the team (older veterans) and learn how to be a professional. Kids in big-time programs might not be getting paid, but they are often treated like gods, which can lead to off-the-court problems. In essence, I am agreeing whole-heartedly with David. Taken a step farther, I think ANY kid that is thinking about a year or two of college basketball before an NBA jump should instead go to Europe. I think this type of experience would involve more personal and professional and financial growth than a short-lived stint in college. I also agree that a mass exit to Europe would essentially kill the one year rule, and thus make the developmental leagues perhaps a more enticing option.
2 months ago
There is still something to be said about playing in college. I don't fault a guy for wanting to make money rather than go to class, but lets be honest... how much studying was Brandon Jennings ever going to do? I don't feel sorry for a guy who will have to spend the next year as a celebrity in his own school, have girls falling all over you, and only 12 months away from millions of dollars. And on top of that, nobody is ever going to watch a european basketball game here in America, so from a public relations standpoint, it doesn't help. Carmelo Anthony, for all his faults, can still say "You know what, hate me all you want, but I led Syracuse to a National Championship" That's something that can never, ever be duplicated in Europe.
2 months ago
Overall, you did a really great job. There are some things that you forgot to mention. Sure it's true that the year in college helps to "weed out the busts". But more importantly, it allows the teams that need the most help to draft someone who can help them immediately. The system is screwed up when the worst teams use the top picks on guys they plan on benching for a year. If the team screws up that pick on a Leon Smith, Kwame Brown, Ndudi Ebi or Robert Swift it could hurt that team for years.
Second, many teams in Europe will be scared off by Jennings preconditions. Here's what he said in an ESPN.com article:
"I need a team that needs a point guard, a coach who would take the time to work with me, an American on the team who could show me the ropes and playing time to show off my game."
And all that for one season! Are you kidding me? If I'm an NBA GM I'm not only worried about the attention this kid wants but I'm also put off by the fact that he needed three attempts to qualify on his SATs.
Third, the NBDL does not have an age requirement. The NBA would love it if Jennings brought attention to a league where you could currently count the attendance from your living room sofa. If people are flocking to Montgomery, Alabama to watch David Price pitch then why wouldn't they drive to Sioux Falls to watch Jennings.
Fourth, if Jennings decides to play in either Europe or the NBDL he could still sign an endorsement deal with any of the shoe companies that could potentially pay him more than he would make as an NBA rookie. Nike could tell him that he's getting a million for the year and the remainder of his deal would increase depending on where he gets drafted or by whom he gets drafted by.
I've written about this before but the best solution is for the NBA to do what MLB does. Any high schooler that gets drafted in the first round should be able to go directly to the NBA. The rest of them must go to school for at least three years before being eligible for the draft again.
I don't think money has as much to do with this as you think it does. College basketball will make money regardless of which players are wearing the jerseys. The NBA will continue to make money as well.
The reason the rule was established has more to do with these kids growing up for a year than it has to do with money. The players union also doesn't have a real issue with the age requirement because it allows veterans a better chance to stick around instead of getting cut to make room for a teenager.
2 months ago
I like the idea Andrew has said about changing the draft, but what about this. Lets stop making it a punishment to keep your name in the draft!
If you dont get drafted in the first round, you can go back to school. What's so hard about that? I mean, any kid drafted in the first round has a 3 year guarantee and would never give that up anyway. But if youre a high school kid who slipped to the 2nd round or didn't get drafted, why not let that kid go to the school he committed too? What is the big idea of punishing a kid for wanting to play in the NBA, so we are going to completely destroy your chances? I mean, if it has to be a thing where they have to go to a JC for a year or two, then fine, but let the kids make a decision and then play.
I personally think a lot of kids are going to benefit from the 1 year rule, it could have made some kids better (Kwame Brown) and saved some kids from losing all eligibility and any shot at the NBA. But if you let these kids go back to school, it could help.
Expand the draft to 4 rounds and allow non first rounders to keep eligibility.
from 2 months ago
Now that's an interesting point. A way the NCAA could try to counter this is by allowing NBA draft picks to play in college like they do minor league baseball players.
from 2 months ago
Kenny, you're so right. What about the college football players that play minor league baseball in the summer? Those guys lose their scholarships but they are still allowed to pay for their tuition with their baseball money and I'm sure the baseball teams cover the expense.
Any second-rounder that goes back to school should have his tuition paid for by the team that drafts him. This way, colleges don't have to lose a scholarship and you still get the seasoning you need to develop.
There's another straight-from-high-school player that never gets mentioned when it comes to maturation and that's Kobe Bryant. Think about how much he would have benefited by playing one year at Duke. In terms of how relates to others or leadership ability, it would have been huge.
On the flip side, the NBA and NCAA will tell you that underclassmen are allowed to put their names in the draft, attend the pre-draft camp and pull out once as long as they don't hire an agent. This gives guys like Aron Afflalo or Josh Shipp the chance to find out what scouts think they need to work on before going back to school. It also allows teams to tell kids that if they are available then the team will pick them so there's less of a risk. I'm sure a kid like Luc Mbah a Moute was told by the Bucks that they would take him with their 37th pick. Otherwise, I'm pretty sure he goes back to school.
If they expand the draft to four rounds then everybody would declare. I'm not so sure that's a good idea. But I do love the idea of these kids being able to go back to school. Unless, of course, the NBDL turns into a true minor league instead of just a farm system for the Golden St. Warriors.
It was interesting to hear that two kids that the Pistons picked in the second round are going to play in Europe next year. Joe Dumars, again proving he's the league's best GM, asked every player he interviewed before the draft if they would be willing to play in Europe for a year and drafted the two guys, Trent Plaisted and Deron Washington, who had no problem doing it. Plaisted left after his junior year and Washington graduated. At least these kids have a possible future with the team.
2 months ago
Fantastic article. I totally disagree with the one year rule. Imagine Kobe or Lebron being forced to go to college. I think Jennings should go to Europe and earn some money and then be a top 5 pick in next year's draft.
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment.
2 months ago
Great article. This is one of the dumbest rules in sports...if the kids ready to play in the NBA then let him play!
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment
2 months ago
Awesome man, just a great write, I too am definetely surprised its taken this long for anyone to consider the fact that they can go over to Europe, make more money, play against decent competition, and still keep their stock up.
It's gonna be really interesting to see if Jennings actually holds true to his claim and goes through with it.
from 2 months ago
thanks for the comment. i'd say right now its 50-50 jennings hits europe.
2 months ago
great, great article...ur absolutely right, this shameful pretense of having them go to college for a year when there is absolutely no point is ridiculous. I hope this move to Europe happens because then basketball will be even more competitive overseas and the euroleague as a whole will create stronger players for the NBA.
from 2 months ago
thanks. hopefully someone can lead my maccabi tel aviv back to the promise land, lol
2 months ago
this is a really well written article... as a wildcat fan I am scared that he will bolt to Europe instead of coming down to Tucson and playing for Lute
from 2 months ago
thanks. probably the same feeling I had when I found out Speights had set back the Gators another year by leaving.
about 1 month ago
If you think playing in the Euroleague is easier than playing top rung college basketball then god help you....most commentators have advocated this route for American high school ballers with the proviso that they may not find success that easy to come by in Europe.No high school player is going to be an immediate star in Europe (unless he is Lebron or someone)- they play a team oriented style with fundamentals learnt from an early age.
However I agree with your main thrust.
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