2010 MLB Predictions: Victor Martinez's Impact Over a Full Red Sox Season

Victor Martinez will be a powerful force for the Red Sox in 2010.

While Red Sox Hot-Stove debates this winter have focused on retaining Jason Bay, pursuing Matt Holliday, or acquiring another "big bat" via trade, much of the Nation has seemingly forgotten last year's near blockbuster that brought Victor Martinez to Boston. Martinez is a big bat.

He'll be an even bigger bat during his first full season at Fenway.

When Theo Epstein dealt Justin Masterson to Cleveland at the 2009 trade deadline, Red Sox fans rejoiced at the proverbial coup that brought Fenway a desperately needed catching upgrade. In Martinez the Nation virtually stole a powerful, switch-hitting player in his prime from a financially strapped Indians organization.

As some fans lament the loss of Jason Bay's power, all should look forward to the elite Martinez's (hopefully) season-long presence in the Sox lineup.

Martinez is a career .299 hitter with a .372 on-base percentage and a .465 slugging percentage. In 2009, before being dealt to Boston, Martinez batted .284/.368/.464/ for Cleveland.

Yet that was at Progressive Field, second only to San Diego's Petco Park on the list of best pitcher's ballparks.

Fenway ranks eighth among Major League Baseball's 16 hitting fields according to ESPN's park factors.

After moving to Beantown, Martinez hit .336/.405/.507. Martinez's average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage increased by 52, 38, and 43 points, respectively.

Those numbers align with what one should expect of an elite hitter moving from Progressive to Fenway.

2010 Projection

Considering Martinez's demonstrated improvement and factoring in the specific advantages Fenway affords him, I project that in 2010 Martinez will hit .333, slug at a .519 clip, and reach base safely to the tune of a .415 OBP.

Sabermetrically, Martinez will weigh in with a 54.4 RAR, a 5.5 WAR and a value of 24.5 million dollars, far beyond his $7 million salary.

While Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez are effectively equals in fielding percentage, Martinez should outmatch Varitek's career batting line by 75, 72 and 85 points in average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, respectively.

Martinez's RAR should outstrip Varitek's by 41.2.

The Red Sox lost Jason Bay (another article), and they still need another "big bat," but a full season of Victor Martinez should go a long way to pick up the offensive slack.