Brian Burke at Work: Free Agent Shopping for Toronto Maple Leafs Won't Be Easy

Written By: Mark "The Hard Hitter" Ritter

With the trade deadline fast approaching and the Toronto Maple Leafs struggling mightily, many Leaf fans are expecting general manager Brian Burke to make significant changes.

Which players Burke decides to trade and what Burke is able to bring back in return is anyone’s guess at this point, but I think it’s safe to say that as many as 10 players may be playing elsewhere when the 2010-11 season commences.

So, which players may be on the block? Unrestricted free agents Lee Stempniak; Alexei Ponikarovsky; Matt Stajan; Wayne Primeau; Jamal Mayers, who has requested a trade; Rickard Wallin; Mike Van Ryn; Garnet Exelby, who has requested a trade; Jonas Frogren; and goaltender Vesa Toskala could all be on the move, as could defenseman Tomas Kaberle—a player many NHL teams are interested in.

When everything is said and done, regardless of the aforementioned players being traded or just straight up allowed to walk, the Leafs will be a very different team in 2010-11. Both Ponikarovsky and Stajan could easily be retained, traded or be allowed to seek out free agency. The rest of the players are all but gone, one way or the other.

What it all means is that Burke will have a tremendous amount of money to spend on free agents this summer—somewhere around $20 million—which should allow him to boost the talent level and acquire that elusive centreman for sniper Phil Kessel to play alongside of.

In an article earlier this week, I pointed out that the crop of centremen to pick from via free agency was very average. Patrick Marleau will be a UFA, but he’s likely to sign back with the San Jose Sharks or with a team that has a better shot at the Stanley Cup.

When you look at the rest of the centremen available, the only player that stuck out was 28-year-old Tomas Plekanec. Plekanec—who has posted 13 goals and 52 points through 55 games with the Montreal Canadiens this season—likes to distribute the puck, something the Leafs are looking for in their first line centre; can play the power play; and should have no problem playing second fiddle to Kessel.

Add up all the intangibles and you get the feeling that Burke may very well go after the Montreal Canadiens' leading scorer.

Market value suggests that Plekanec will likely cost the Leafs anywhere between $4-5 million per season on a four to five-year deal. That leaves $15-16 million for Burke to continue to fill holes.

It’s my belief that Exelby will be shipped off to another NHL team. Van Ryn should also be shown the door, which means signing Ian White (who is a restricted free agent this summer) will be a priority.

Carl Gunnarsson (or, “Ouzi,” as I like to call him) has been playing solid hockey this season and should continue to develop. His solid play should earn him the role of seventh defenseman on this Leafs squad, and, at $630,000 (Gunnarsson’s 2010-11 salary), the price is right!

White has played well this season, establishing himself as a top four defenseman with the Leafs. Expect Burke to sign White to a long-term deal at around $3 million per.

A quick tally tells us that Burke now has $12-13 million left to spend. One area the Leafs will have to address will be goaltending. Not only will Burke need to establish market value for Jonas Gustavsson, he’ll also need to acquire a second string goalie via free agency.

We can speculate all day long regarding whom that backup will be; one thing's for sure, Burke will aim to lock up a backup on the cheap, somewhere around $1 million per. Gustavsson’s value should be around $2-3 million a year, with a term of three to four years.

For arguments sake, we can assume that Burke’s goaltending costs should net out to about $3.5 million next season, leaving Burke with about $9 million to spend.

With $9 million to spend, Burke will have to fill several holes at forward. It’s tough to speculate which prospects will be in blue and white next season, but given their solid play, it’s safe to say that both Tyler Bozak ($875,000) and Christain Hanson ($875,000), will be given every opportunity to make the 2010-11 squad.

Hanson could easily fill the “void” left behind by the departure of Mayers and Primeau, while Bozak could fill the role of Matt Stajan. If this is the case, the Leafs will see some savings, which should pad the Leafs' wallet, allowing them to spend a little more at the free agent table.

At this point, both Viktor Stalberg and Nazem Kadri are wild cards. Both players impressed the Leafs Brass at training camp last summer; that said, there are no guarantees these players crack the Leaf lineup in 2010-11.

Taking all of this into account, Burke will need to add a couple of forwards. First up, Burke will have to extend a contract extension to Nikolai Kulemin, who is a UFA this summer. You gotta think $2 million per gets it done, don’t you?

Some affordable options for Burke to consider (players that will likely command $1-$3 million per season) at forward will likely include pending UFAs Matt Cooke (LW—Pittsburgh Penguins), Rene Bourque (LW—Calgary Flames), Steve Ott (LW—Dallas), Alex Tanguay (LW—Tampa Bay Lightning), Maxim Afinogenov (RW—Atlanta Thrashers), Mike Comrie (C—Edmonton Oilers), and Chris Higgins (New York Rangers).

Some more expensive options (players that will likely command $5 million or more per season) may include Alexander Frolov (LW—Los Angeles Kings), Ilya Kovalchuk (LW—Atlanta Thrashers), and Patrick Marleau (C—San Jose Sharks).

As you can see, the pickings are going to be slim. Kovalchuk, Marleau, and Frolov will garner plenty of interest from NHL teams. The odds of Burke landing one of these players will be pretty slim, if not impossible.

More Likely, Burke will have to focus on trying to get some of those low to mid end forwards to sign affordable/short term deals. Of which, Cooke, Bourque, and Ott catch my eye, with Tanguay being an interesting option.

Fortunately, Burke will have other options. There are several teams out there that will be looking to unload some salary this summer, if not before. The Chicago Blackhawks are one of those teams, as are the Boston Bruins (who love dealing with the Leafs!), and, perhaps, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

All three of these teams can offer up young, talented players in return for salary cap relief. In the case of the Lightning, it may just be a case of unloading salary, with quality players being available.

Whatever course that Burke chooses, it will not be an easy task to rebuild the Leafs. With each signing comes a calculated risk; not every free agent signing works out.

Hopefully, Burke can fill in the pieces, get the Leafs on the right track, and create a winning environment for Leaf fans—something the fans have been longing for for a very long time.

Join my BR counterpart Louis Pisano and I as we throw down our very own LIVE podcast "Get The Puck Out"—TONIGHT—Saturday January 30th at 6:00pm. Log on to www.morencysports.com or call into the show to discuss some Puck, TONIGHT, 6:pm-7:pm. 1-866-964-5710.

Until next time,

Peace!