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Tom DubberkeJan 27, 2010

Jon Garland just signed a one-year deal with the Padres that guarantees him $5.3 million ($4.7 million salary in ‘10, with a mutual option at $6.5 million in ‘11 with a $600,000 buy-out).  While I’m not a big fan of Jon Garland, I don’t think this is a terrible move for the Padres.

The thing I don’t like about Garland is that his Ks/9IP numbers are consistently terrible.  However, he generally throws strikes, he’s still only 30 in ‘10, and he had a sold year in for the DiamondBacks and Dodgers in 2009.  He also eats up a fair number of innings.

Finally, he may benefit greatly pitching his home games in Petco Park. One thing that has always killed Garland is that he gives up a lot of home runs.  However, Petco Park is a tough place to hit HRs, which should benefit Garland as much as anyone.

In a waste of a couple of million dollars, the Cubs decided to give Xavier Nady $3.3 million for 2010, even though injuries limited Nady to only nine professional games played in 2009.  Definitely too much money to give Nady in the current market.

I’ve never been enamored with Nady.  He doesn’t walk at all, and he really doesn’t have enough power for a corner outfielder.  Also, he’ll be 31 in 2010, and after essentially missing the entire 2009, the odds are great that he’ll never have another season anywhere close to his one and only truly good season in 2008.  Even hitting in Wrigley, I think the Cubs will be lucky to get an .800 OPS out of Nady in 2010.

By way of comparison, the Yankees just signed Randy Winn for $2 million.  I’ll be surprised if Nady has a significantly better year with the bat than Winn, and Winn is clearly the better defensive rightfielder.  The only thing really positive I can say about Nady playing right field for the Cubs in 2010 is that he isn’t Milton Bradley.

In a move I like better, the Cubs signed Chad Tracy to a minor league deal.  Chad Tracy really looked good his first couple of major league seasons, but his career has gone straight down the toilet the last three.  Still, he’s only 30 in 2010 and could help the Cubs in a back-up capacity at a reasonable price.  I suspect Cubs’ fans will be happier about the decision to sign Tracy than the decision to sign Nady come the end of the ‘10 season.

To my chagrin, the Twins went ahead and signed Jim Thome for 2010 at $1.5 million.  I have absolutely nothing against Thome, and at that salary level he could really help a number of teams.  But not the Twins.

As I’ve said many times, most thoroughly here, the Twins have to find a way to limit Joe Mauer to about 110 games played at catcher each season, while still keeping his bat in the line-up every day.  With Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome on the same team, that simply isn’t going to happen unless someone gets hurt.  With this roster, however, the player most likely to get hurt is Mauer.

It’s worth noting that the Twins limited Mauer to 109 games at catcher in 2009, and he won the AL MVP Award.  It’s hard to see Mauer playing fewer than 130 games at catcher in 2010, now that the Twins have signed Thome.  As such, the Twins are risking turning arguably the best player in the world at this moment into the next Butch Wynegar.

I just can’t understand it, unless deep down the Twins think there’s no way they can sign him to a long-term contract, so they figure they better suck the marrow from Mauer’s bones while they can.  However, if there’s any team that could get Mauer to accept a home-town deal it’s the Twins.  Mauer is from St. Paul, and the Twins have fielded competitive teams throughout his career there.

Also, the Twins appear to have a fine back-up catcher in Jose Morales.  Morales will be 27 next year, the age at which players as a group peak, and after a slow start to his professional career, he’s looked like a major league caliber player the last three seasons.  How much playing time is he going to get if the Twins are trying to get either Kubel’s or Thome’s bat into the line up?

Perhaps the Twins figure that out of their two corner outfielders (Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer), Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, someone’s bound to get hurt, and then the decision to sign Thome will really come in handy.  There’s certainly a reasonable chance that one of these players will get hurt or (most likely in the case of Young and Cuddyer) won’t hit.

Still, the temptation’s going to be there all year long to keep running Mauer out at catcher so the Twins can pencil either Kubel or Thome’s into the DH slot.  It would have been better for the Twins to avoid that temptation in the first place.

Now that I’ve had the chance to vent my disapproval, I think I see the Twins’ logic.  The Twins want to win in 2010, and Joe Mauer wants to win in 2010.  For a $1.5 million signing price, Thome gives the Twins the most bang they’re going to get for those bucks.

Thome has been remarkably healthy since 2006 for a man of his size and age.  He had an .849 OPS in 2009 and an .865 OPS in 2008.  If he gives the Twins an .825 or .830 OPS in 2010, he’ll be a real bargain, at least in terms of what they’re paying him.

The Twins’ best chance at signing Mauer to a long-term deal at the price they’re willing to pay mostly likely occurs if the Twins make it past the first round of the 2010 play-offs.  Jim Thome gives them the best chance of doing it for the money they’re willing to spend.

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