Hanley Ramirez, Not Albert Pujols, Deserves First Pick in Fantasy Drafts

Positional scarcity is a controversial topic among fantasy baseball players.

Some argue that players eligible at positions (generally catcher, second base, and shortstop) that lack depth in fantasy merit priority selection above those who play positions (outfield and, especially, first base) that have it.

Others, taking a simple and clear approach, argue that the best player should always be selected first.

The issue bears a passing resemblance to the sabermetric notion of a defensive spectrum: The spectrum theory of defense, as it were, holds that defenders who play tougher defensive positions well (in order, shortstop, second base, third base, and center field) can easily move to the easier and less important ones (the corner outfield spots and, especially, first base).

Many, citing specialized skills required at different positions, reject this irreverence for the established notion of defensive type-casting, or say that a good defensive third baseman has no more value than a good defensive first baseman, if they are equally good with the glove.

The fantasy iteration of the debate is nowhere more apparent than in the fight for the top spot in this season's fantasy drafts.

Hanley Ramirez, the superstar shortstop of the Florida Marlins, won the National League batting title last season. Aside from his .342 average, Ramirez clubbed 24 home runs. He drove in 106 runs, a career high. He stole 27 bases and scored 101 runs. 

Albert Pujols, the superstar first baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals, won the home run title with 47. He also led the NL with 124 runs scored, batted .325, drove in 135 runs, and stole a career-high 16 bases.

If we were to muse about which man is the superior player, there would be no good debate: It's Pujols.

In fantasy, however, the tremendous advantages Pujols holds in plate discipline and on defense matter little. What does matter, as fantasy owners try to project Pujols's and Ramirez's numbers for next season, is that Pujols is now 30 years old.

He also has a slowly accumulating list of injuries; though he has missed minimal time during his career, he has had surgeries on his shoulder and elbow, and has complained intermittently of knee pains. 

Ramirez, meanwhile, turned 26 in December. He is at his peak, and will perform as such in 2010.

Pujols, however, showed wear down the stretch in 2009. After the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday, Pujols batted .326 in 64 games. Ramirez, meanwhile, batted .339 in his last 64 games.

Pujols hit 15 home runs during the stretch, six more than Ramirez, but drove in just one more run (45, to Ramirez's 44).

He also scored one more run than Ramirez, by a tally of 47-46. However, Ramirez's 14 steals in 15 attempts over that stretch blew away Pujols's six in seven tries. 

For 2010, I project that Pujols (2010 projection: .331-38 HR-117 RBI-103 R-8 SB) and Ramirez (.319-34 HR-108 RBI-111 R-28 SB) will wash out, or nearly so, in terms of fantasy value added.

In many years, I might take Pujols and his nine-year track record of consistent excellence.

With such significant question marks about the next tier of shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes), however, and with first basemen as good as Billy Butler and Kendry Morales due well into the sixth and seventh rounds, it has to be Ramirez.