Fantasy Football's Biggest Suprises and GOATS of 2009

All sports champions -real or fantasy, and especially those with salary caps and/or drafts-are crowned because of the GM's decision to pursue the correct players at a value that is equal to their potential contribution. Fantasy sports are the same- managers that can correctly assess the value of a player will most likely be the same that win year after year. 

A great example can be seen by looking at the first RBs selected in 2009 Yahoo! leagues and how they ranked at the end of the year:

Player	Team	Avg Draft Position	2009 Points	Final RB Rank
Adrian Peterson	(Min)	1.2	277.9	3
Michael Turner	(Atl)	2.5	146.6	63
Maurice Jones-Drew	(Jac)	3.9	270.5	4
Matt Forte	(Chi)	5	160	55
Brian Westbrook	(Phi)	6.9	57.5	252

Obviously, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew or "MoJo Drew" held up to their end of the bargain, but we all know that injuries and other issues caused Michael Turner, Matt Forte, and Brian Westbrook to fail to live up to the hype that a top five pick brings.  

You may be wondering where iIm going with this. Essentially, now that the season is over, we can look at preseason rankings vs. actual season rankings and understand who over and under-performed in 2009. We can then use these rankings to determine the best strategy for next year's draft by understanding who to draft, when to draft them, and how to value firstst round picks and 15th round picks.

Here we go. 

In 2009 the top over-achieving players drafted in the top 208 players were:

Player	Team	2009 Position Rank	Pre- Season Rank	Rank Differential
Ricky Williams	(MIA)	7	49	42
Ray Rice	(BAL)	4	31	27
Rashard Mendenhall	(PIT)	13	39	26
Steve Smith NY	(NYG)	11	36	25
Fred Jackson	(BUF)	16	40	24
DeSean Jackson	(PHI)	4	26	22
Tim Hightower	(ARI)	26	47	21
Derrick Mason	(BAL)	17	38	21
Vernon Davis	(SFO)	1	19	18
Cedric Benson	(CIN)	15	32	17

Not included are players such as Miles Austin, Mike Sims-Walker, Sidney Rice, and Hakeem Nicks because they were typically FA's in most leagues in week one and therefore are not included in this study.

The biggest under achieving GOATs of 2009 are: 

Player	Team	2009 Position Rank	Pre- Season Rank	Rank Differential
Brian Westbrook	(PHI)	61	5	56
Dwayne Bowe	(KC)	53	11	42
Clinton Portis	(WAS)	53	12	41
Willie Parker	(PIT)	67	26	41
Le'Ron McClain	(BAL)	73	37	36
Antonio Bryant	(TB)	51	16	35
Torry Holt	(JAC)	66	32	34
Darren McFadden	(OAK)	57	25	32
Kevin Walter	(HOU)	63	31	32
Larry Johnson	(KC/CIN)	54	23	31

So what do we know from this? The biggest GOATs are usually taken high in the draft.  Late round failures won't end your season and usually can be replaced by an FA. However, a failed top round pick can hurt your FF season if you don't have a successful replacement on your roster. No one can rely on an FA pick up to replace a failed top pick.

In order to hedge all risks, make sure to handcuff your risky top round picks with high-risk, high-reward players in the middle rounds that have the potential to be one of the year's best surprises. Drafting an extra RB or WR in mid-to-late rounds, such as Steve Smith (NY), Ricky Williams, or  Ray Rice has the potential to provide massive dividends, while the risk is extremely minimal, as most owners should already have their roster filled by the time players such as these would normally come off the board.