Now that the draft has passed, the stage is set for what could be the toughest NBA Rookie Of the Year Award race in recent memory.
This year's NBA rookie class is stuffed to the brim with studs. Less people are competing to win Wimbledon than to take home this glass trophy. There were less suitors for ABC's Bachelor. The NBA has more top-notch freshman than Yale. Heck, the Portland Trail Blazers alone have more good candidates than any political party put out this campaign.
From 19-year olds who went one and done, from college graduates, to international superstars, to injury-plagued prospects who didn't get to touch the court last year—the 2008 rookies come in all varieties, but they're all ripe and ready to go.
Choosing the favorite is like trying to pick the best Hawaiian island. It's like predicting San Diego summer weather. Every option is great.
But only one will end up as America's finest rookie.
Nevertheless, I'm taking a stab at forecasting this freshman fight. I'll break the race down player by player, to see who has the best chance at bringing home the glass:
Going by the draft order, the first guy up is Derrick Rose. There's no question about Rose's talent. He's got all the tools to be the next dominant point guard in the league. I'm concerned, though—he doesn't have all the opportunity.
The Bulls drafted him into one of the most crowded back courts in the league. Rose will have to fight for playing time with Hinrich, Gordon, Duhon, and Larry Hughes. Even if Chicago deals Kirk, Rose still won't have a full time starting gig.
I'm not saying he won't be a cornerstone of the team, or a starter—but the somewhat limited playing time that he'll get will prevent Derrick Rose from being the Rookie of the Year.
Michael Beasley is considered by many to be the early favorite. I don't see how anyone can not think he deserves to be up there. The Miami Heat have three good pieces of the puzzle: Wade, Marion, and Beasley.
Beasley will touch the ball a ton, but he won't be keyed up. He'll get the opportunities without the double teams. Defenses have two other studs to think about, and Beasley will reap the benefits. 20 and 10 is entirely possible. So is the Eddie Gottlieb trophy.
To me, the most amusing thing about this year's draft was OJ Mayo—the player so focused on building his brand name he allegedly went to USC because it would get him the most publicity—going to the forgotten, crappy, Memphis Grizzlies. Mayo's down syndrome-esque talking was a close second. Good luck to you, OJ, as you try to market your signature shoe in a small market like Memphis.
However, regardless of whether he gets noticed, he may get the Rookie of the Year award. There is no one on the Grizzlies who will take time away from OJ at shooting guard. And Rudy Gay will draw teams' best defenders. Mayo's scoring ability, paired with everything else he has going for him, could definitely bring him home the hardware.
Somewhere in Portland, Greg Oden
8 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Joshua Skaar about 1 year ago
ROY goes to Rose if the Bulls can make the playoffs, regardless of seed.
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Andrew Kneeland about 1 year ago
I think Oden takes it, and I don't think it will be close.
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Tosten Burks about 1 year ago
No love for Beasley. Wow. Even though the consensus on him from the BSPN experts is that he has a good chance of dropping 20 a night?
I thought there would be a little MBeezy love in the house.
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jereima gilg about 1 year ago
what about russell westbrook he will put up somenumbers because he will start and if not get alot of minutes
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Marcus Hagness about 1 year ago
Beasley won't score 20 ppg as a rookie. Not because he's not capable of doing it, but he isn't capable of doing it in Miami. Dwade is a 25 ppg scorer and Marion left Phoenix so he could be more offensively involved. Beasley will be a 14-16 ppg and 8-10 rpg player which should be fine for his inagural season.
This race comes down to three men: Derrick Rose, Greg Oden, and OJ Mayo. Rose is going to have a legitimate chance at 10 assists a night with the guys he has around him in Chicago. \
Oden is going to have plenty of single coverage because of Portlands extra muscle around him in the paint. They also have an All-Star in Brandon Roy to take heat off him and multi-talented guard Jerryd Bayless to run the show.
OJ Mayo is going to have a shot because it's going to be the OJ-Rudy show in Memphis. His numbers are going to be impressive playing for a team as offensively inept as Memphis.
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Brandon Toussaint about 1 year ago
No one on the Bulls roster is gonna take minutes away from Rose. Period. lol....Hinrich isnt even a true point, he'd be better suited coming off of screens at the two or just being dealt. He'll log over 30 minutes a game easily. I wouldnt be suprised if it was high 30's. And yes the Chicago offense is packed with talent and guys who can score. Its up to Rose to push the ball and control the tempo of the game. Im almost postive that no ones gonna be able to stay in front of the guy 1 on 1. And if he gets in the lane he can dunk with his elbows. I think we're looking at the next Dwayne wade with better ball handling.
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Tosten Burks about 1 year ago
As I hear, read, and learn more, I'm starting to like Rose's chances to step in and be a stud from the get go and possibly be the ROY.
Duhon is a UFA. He'll most likely be out of Chicago.
Gordon is a RFA. He could be out of Chicago if a team offers him a big contract in the range of 50-60 mil.
Hinrich trade rumors haven't stopped.
If Rose is the starter and plays 35 minutes a game, would he be the favorite for this award?
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Brandon Toussaint about 1 year ago
Absolutely. If he plays 35 minutes a game, his numbers alone will do enough to take the award, not to mention the team's turnaround that i predict next year
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