National League Closer Rundown

National League East

New York Mets—Francisco Rodriguez
Next in Line: Pedro Feliciano, Eddie Kunz

I urge you to try to forget the ugly season that it was for the New York Mets in 2009 when you are evaluating Francisco Rodriguez.  There is no possible way that the team can suffer the same number and severity of injuries again this season. 

However, there are two things you need to know about Rodriguez that you will deal with if he is on your roster.  First, he will put a lot of guys on base; and second, he will blow saves.  K-Rod put 89 guys on base in just 68 innings last year, and he has blown seven saves in each of the last two seasons. 

Even with those two factors, he is still one of the top closers in baseball.  He is almost guaranteed 40 saves, and he will also give you a good number of strikeouts, as well.  He should be one of the first three or four closers gone in your draft. 

Philadelphia Phillies—Brad Lidge
Next in Line: Ryan Madson, Danys Baez

There are not words to describe how bad Lidge was in 2009.  He blew 11 saves; he gave up more hits than innings pitched, and his ERA was well over 7.00.  This all comes one year after a season in which Lidge was perfect in save chances and had an ERA under 2.00. 

So which guy can you expect to see in 2010?  Well, to complicate matters, Lidge has had two surgeries in the offseason, which puts his availability on Opening Day in serious question.  He says that he wants to be ready, but every athlete says that, so take it with a grain of salt. 

The Phillies will load up and have a chance at the World Series for a third-straight season, so the save chances will be there. It is just a matter of which Lidge comes to the show.  Hopefully, these injuries are what were ailing him in 2009, and he will be back to form in 2010.  When he is right, Lidge is as dominant as they come, piling up saves and strikeouts by the handful.  With the uncertainty of his performance and the injuries, Lidge can be no more than a second closer on your team.    

Atlanta Braves—Billy Wagner
Next in Line: Takashi Saito

Wagner missed a lot of the past two seasons because of injury, and as he approaches 40 years old, that has to be a major concern.  However, you wouldn’t know it by the way he pitched after he came back last season.  Wagner was great after his trade to the Red Sox, with his 1.98 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 13.2 innings.  This makes Wagner one of the bigger wild cards when it comes to closers in 2010. 

Atlanta isn’t going to be an elite team, but they could challenge for the National League East championship, so Wagner should have the chance to save at least 40 games.  Given the way he pitched last season, it is a distinct possibility. 

On the flip side of that coin, he is aging and coming off major arm surgery.  It is hard to say how he will bounce back in his first full season in three years.  He could start out the year very strong and then lose steam in July or August.  Whoever drafts Wagner is in for the ultimate high risk/high reward season in 2010, as he will likely either be an elite closer again or implode early in the season.  Those are guys that I tend to stay away from.

Florida Marlins—Leo Nunez
Next in Line: Dan Meyer

It was an interesting situation at the back of the Marlins bullpen in 2009, with Matt Lindstrom and Nunez taking their turns giving up runs and blowing saves.  However, once Nunez got the job, he did plenty enough to hold on to it—and enough for the Marlins to feel comfortable enough to send Lindstrom packing to Houston. 

Nunez gave up far too many home runs (13) and walked too many batters (27), and his ERA was too high (4.06).  Once he was given the closer’s job, he seemed to settle down some, as he converted 25 of the 29 chances after the end of June. 

You might not gather this from reading my analysis, but I actually like Nunez for 2010.  Ideally, he would be the third closer on your squad, but I will assume that you will have to draft him high enough that he will be your No. 2.  

Washington Nationals—Matt Capps
Next in Line: Brian Bruney

Capps has always been viewed as a decent closer on a bad team.  So now that he has gone through free agency, we can now view him as...a decent closer on a worse team.

Last season was a total disaster for Capps, as he dealt with inconsistency as well as injury.  Capps' ERA was well north of 5.00, and he blew five of his 27 save chances.  He now will close games for the Nationals, who are amassing more offensive talent and might not be as hideously embarrassing as they have been since their inception. 

I probably like Capps more than some, and I would feel fine with him as the third closer on your team.  Sure, it isn’t ideal, but I don’t see him doing anywhere near as bad as he did in 2009.  I wouldn’t go into your draft targeting Capps, but if you are looking for saves late in the proceedings, Capps isn’t a bad choice.

National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals—Ryan Franklin
Next in Line: Jason Motte

When 2009 started, it seemed as if Franklin was a real long shot to close games in St. Louis, as he was battling Motte and Chris Perez for the job.  Perez got the first crack, but it was obvious early that he wasn’t ready.  Tony LaRussa turned to Franklin, and the next thing you know, he was pitching in the All-Star Game. 

Franklin and his crazy beard dominated the ninth inning for most of the rest of the season.  His ERA was under 2.00, and three of his five blown saves came in the final month of the season.  Franklin isn’t a dominating strikeout pitcher at the end of the game, but he is very efficient at holding leads.  He tends to make things interesting with guys on base, but he always seems to save the game when it is all over. 

Franklin is a guy who is likely to be drafted as a No. 1 closer, but I wouldn’t be that guy.  I would want him to be the second closer on my team.

Chicago Cubs—Carlos Marmol
Next in Line: Angel Guzman, Jeff Samarzdija, Kevin Gregg?

Before the season started, either Kevin Gregg or Marmol was to be the closer for the Cubs, and everyone and their mother assumed that the fireballing Marmol would get the job.  However, Manager Lou Pinella went against what everyone was thinking and gave the job to Gregg. 

It was late August when Marmol finally took over, and he saved 11 straight opportunities.  That is not to say that everything is perfect for Marmol owners. 

The guy pitched 74 innings last year, and he walked an insane 65 batters.  He did also strike out an impressive number, with 93 Ks, but he is wildly inconsistent. 

Those of you who draft Marmol are going to have to know when you take him that you are going to have to deal with his erratic command and inconsistency.  He is going to hurt your WHIP, but most of the time, he will come up with the save, and the strikeout numbers will be impressive.  He is a good option for a second-tier closer. 

Houston Astros—Matt Lindstrom
Next in Line: Brandon Lyon

Lindstrom’s numbers last year were downright ugly, but he certainly has the stuff to be a dominant closer.  It is easy to be scared away by an ERA in the neighborhood of 6.00 and 24 walks against just 39 strikeouts in 47 innings pitched, but he is a guy that I still will be taking a chance on this season. 

At this time in January, it is hard to say definitively that he will be the guy for the 'Stros, but he throws the ball 100 mph and blew only two of 17 save chances last season before dealing with injury and Leo Nunez. 

If he is back and fully healthy, there is no reason that Lindstrom and his electric arm can’t tally 30 saves and strike out many more batters than he did last year.  He should be considered a third-tier closer, but if all breaks well, he could bring you much more value than that. 

Milwaukee Brewers—Trevor Hoffman
Next in Line: LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey

I have to say that when I first started this article, I looked to see who the Brewers acquired to replace Trevor Hoffman because I was sure he retired.  Low and behold, “Hells Bells” will be ringing through Miller Park in the ninth inning again in 2010. 

It was another great performance for the future Hall of Famer last year, as he had 37 saves and an ERA under 2.00 and struck out nearly a batter an inning.  He is 42 years old, so the end could come at any time, but after a season like that, you have to believe that he has another good one in him.

He should be a low-end second closer on your roster.

Pittsburgh Pirates—Octavio Dotel
Next in Line: Joel Hanrahan

I have to admit, I didn’t see this one coming.  But I always say when you see a decision that the Pirates make and you question it, that is why the Pirates are the Pirates.  

So a team in total rebuilding mode trying to move toward the future signs a 36-year-old reliever who has recorded one save in the last three years?  And they bring in Joel Hanrahan also, just in case Dotel can’t get it done?  Ugh! 

This is a situation that I would try to avoid if at all humanly possible, as Dotel should only be considered at desperation time at the end of drafts, trying to get a few cheap saves. 

Cincinnati Reds—Francisco Cordero
Next in Line:  Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes

Even as he approaches the ripe old age of 35, Cordero keeps mowing down the hitters and piling up the saves.  His strikeouts might have taken a bit of an alarming dip last year, but 39 saves in 43 chances with an ERA of 2.18 sure still makes me happy. 

He does allow a few too many runners to reach base, but last year, it didn’t come back to bite him. 

You have to be a bit careful with him, as he is prone to blowing some saves (six or more in five of the last eight seasons), but overall, you can expect him to save 30+ games again in 2010 with an increase in strikeouts. However, he will also hurt you in WHIP.  Cordero is a mid- to low-end second closer in fantasy baseball. 

National League West

San Francisco Giants—Brian Wilson
Next in Line: Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt

The Giants play a brand of baseball that revolves around pitching and defense, which means they tend to play a pretty good number of close games.  That means that there are generally plenty of save chances for Wilson, who has racked up 79 saves during the past two seasons. 

Outside of his nice save numbers, the rest of his statistics are generally average as far as closers go.  Wilson gets about a strikeout an inning, and his 2.74 ERA is just about middle of the pack for guys at his position. 

San Francisco seems to be an improving team during the past couple of seasons, which means there should continue to be decent opportunities for Wilson to save games.  He is a prototypical second closer on our roster and should be good again in 2010. 

Los Angeles Dodgers—Jonathan Broxton
Next in Line: George Sherrill

Broxton did have a couple of rough patches during the season, but he still finished as one of the best closers and one of the more dominant from a fantasy perspective.  His 114 strikeouts in just 76 innings is a legendary number, and the 36 saves were among the tops in the National League. 

The Dodgers will again be one of the best teams in the National League, so there is no reason to think that Broxton will do anything other than repeat his dominating 2009.  I think that there is plenty enough to like here to take Broxton as the first closer off the board in 2010 and feel very comfortable with that decision. 

Arizona Diamondbacks—Chad Qualls
Next in Line: Aaron Heilman, Clay Zavada

Before his season ended prematurely because of injury, Qualls was a guy that nobody wanted on their fantasy roster, but he didn’t do that bad.  Sure, his ERA was over 3.50, and he blew five save chances—which isn’t great, but considering the way he was treated last season in fantasy leagues, you would have thought he blew 20 games. 

All that being said, I was a Qualls owner for most of last season, and I didn’t enjoy the experience, so I will try to avoid it again in 2010.  If he is anything more important than the third closer on your team, your relief staff is in a lot of trouble.  Qualls should be one of the last closers taken in your draft. 

San Diego Padres—Heath Bell
Next in Line: Mike Adams, Edward Mujica

After the Padres revamped most of their bullpen during spring training last season, it seemed as if Bell was given the job by default.  Forty-two saves and an All-Star appearance later, San Diego seems to have one of the better closers in baseball. 

Bell did blow six saves, but he was able to strike out more than a batter inning and keep his ERA and WHIP in places where it isn’t going to hurt you. 

There are a couple concerns with Bell for 2010: Namely, can he repeat this performance, seeing as he has no track record as a closer in the past—and the Padres will again be one of, if not the worst, team in baseball. 

He will likely be drafted as a top-shelf closer, but I am not ready to treat him that way until he does it one more time. Ideally ,Bell would be a great second closer, but I would be surprised if he lasted that long. 

So you have to decide whether you believe in him and draft him, or let him go and have someone else in your league take that risk. 

Colorado Rockies—Huston Street
Next in Line: Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz

After being unable to hold down the job in Oakland, Street was traded to the Rockies and became one of the better closers in the National League. While his ERA of 3.06 seems a little high for a closer, Street blew just two of his 37 save chances and averaged less than a baserunner an inning.  He also recorded better than a strikeout an inning, which made him a very valuable fantasy player in 2009. 

Can Street do it again in 2010?  I believe he can, but I also believe that he perhaps will be drafted among the top closers in all of baseball, and I do not quite trust him that much at this point.  

If Street is the first closer you draft, please do yourself a favor and take another one close behind for insurance.  With Colorado likely to be in the hunt for the NL West title, a 30-save season seems to be a foregone conclusion for Street, but there is just one part of me that is a little concerned. 

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