A Discussion on LaMarcus Aldridge

This week I had the opportunity to talk with Nathan Begley of Portland Roundball Society (@hurrakane212 on twitter) about all things LaMarcus Aldridge. For the Blazers, Aldridge has been somewhat of a polarizing figure, and I wanted to get some decent analysis on what exactly Aldridge contributes day in and day out.

Sophia Brugato: LaMarcus Aldridge is often referred to as "soft," by fans and media alike, do you agree with this assessment?

Nathan Begley: Well, Aldridge does have a finesse game. He shoots the midrange jump shot very well. While that shot is not the most efficient shot in the NBA, it's one that Aldridge can get with regularity. I like to think the Brandon Roy/LaMarcus Aldridge pick and pop as a "left jab" that works the opponent by forcing Aldridge's man to stay with him and give Roy a clearer path to the rim.

I do wish the Aldridge would roll to the rim a bit more since he is a good finisher and hits free throws well. I think his handle holds him back a bit from being able to drive the lane and get to the rim or the free-throw line, a la [Chris] Bosh.

An area where I think Aldridge does not get enough credit for is rebounding. He usually averages between just seven and eight boards a game, but Portland routinely out rebounds the opponent when he is on the floor, as opposed to when he was not.

Because of Aldridge's jumper, opposing power forwards get drawn out of the paint, leaving [Greg] Oden or [Joel] Przybilla (theoretically) with single coverage on the boards. Now, except for maybe Dwight Howard and Yao [Ming], I expect Oden and Przybilla to dominate the boards if they only have to worry about boxing out one guy.

Aldridge also tips a lot of rebounds to the guards and does not get credited with a board. Aldridge has been an excellent offensive rebounder, which I believe is a result of beating his man from the perimeter after the shot goes up.

Now, as a caveat, Aldridge's on/off rebound numbers could be influenced by the fact that he was backed up by Travis Outlaw, who is not a strong rebounder. However, I believe that this is offset by the fact that Aldridge played the 5 in small ball lineups. I think that Aldridge's rebounding in recent games shows that his rebounding average is more a product of his role than his natural ability.

SB: What are LA's most important strengths? That is, what does he do well that is most important to the team overall?

NB: I think that Aldridge's ability to do a bit of everything is the most important contribution to the team. He is the Swiss army knife of the team.

He can get his own shot, he can play in the post or on the perimeter, he rebounds, he runs the floor, he passes, he stretches the floor allowing Roy and Oden more room inside, he doesn't turn the ball over much, he doesn't foul often, he can block shots a bit, he tips passes, he can switch onto a PG and force them into a contested jumper and then defend in the post.

Last year, he held his counterpart to about a league average PER of 15.5, while putting up a PER of 21.6 according to 82games.com. Now, of course, defense is not just individual, but Aldridge wasn't getting killed out there either.

SB: Do you feel LA has the potential to be that 20/10 guy every night for the Blazers? Do you feel he could become that type of player on another team or within another system?

NB: For the Blazers? No. For another team, where he was the star? Yes. At the Blazers slow pace, Roy focuses the offense, and Oden dominates the boards. I doubt Aldridge will average more than 18/8. However, put him on the Phoenix Suns replacing Amare', and I think he'd average 22/10-ish.

I think that if Aldridge wants to be an all star, the answer is simply "get to the line." If Aldridge got to the line for say three more attempts a game he'd be drawing at about the same rate as Pau Gasol, and that would probably bump his scoring up to over 20 per game.

SB: LA is averaging well below what he did last year in a couple different categories. Do you feel that is because he just gets a slow start to the season, or have the shifting lineups/rotations this season had an impact on his game?

NB: Well, there is a reason I haven't used this year's statistics very much in evaluating Aldridge. Take a look at this table from http://www.basketball-reference.com:

His true shooting and effective field goal percentages are as high as they've ever been, as well as his defensive and total rebounding percentages. He's blocking a lot fewer shots, but his offensive rating has never been higher, and his defense has never been better.

He's also passing better. While it's true that Aldridge seems to start slow and then end the season on fire, we've also asked him to change roles a lot. We first had him playing farther out on the perimeter and less in the post to make room for Oden. Then Oden went down, and we asked him to play in the post a bit more.

Then Przybilla went down, and we asked him to be our only force in the middle at both ends. Aldridge has done very well for what he has been asked to do. One reason I believe that his blocks are so low is because he absolutely cannot afford to get into foul trouble.

As I said before, Aldridge does not foul much, which is important because he's our only player over 6'9" that is not in a knee brace. I expect Aldridge, barring a trade for a big man, to reach a career high in rebounds this year and finish with a PER of over 19.

SB: You stated that LA is like a super Boris Diaw. Can you expound upon that?

NB: He's that same sort of "do it all" stretch 4, but Aldridge is taller, better and with less attitude problems. When Aldridge disappears in a game, it's because the team quits going to him, not because he's inconsistent. Another example is that Aldridge may be a better rebounding but a worse three-point shooting Rashard Lewis in the Nate MacMillian offense.

Nathan Begley: If you could improve one thing in Aldridge's game (like a slider in NBA 2K10 or something), what would it be?

Sophia Brugato: I want Aldridge to be a sniper three-point shooter. So far this season he has attempted a three pointer seven times (not including half court heaves) and has made five. Overall, he is a career 22 percent three-point shooter, but if LaMarcus developed this shot, I think it could fit into McMillan's system.

He already draws opposing defenders out with the high pick and pop. If he becomes reliable behind the three, he could further open up the lane for someone like Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless or Andre Miller. If he is a legitimate threat from the arc, then defenders would have to stay on him. With a team of healthy players, this could potentially work.

NB: Do you think Aldridge is going to be worth the contract he signed?

SB: $10,477,000. That is roughly what Aldridge will be paid next season. He signed for $65,000,000 with a reported $5,000,000 in incentives over a five-year period.

Considering the current economic climate and financial plight of several NBA organizations this year, the amount is staggering for a player who didn't make the All-Star team and averaged less than 20 points per game last season—a season which led to a disappointing first round playoff exit. Add in the fact that had the Blazers waited until 2010 to sign him, they could have potentially retained him for millions less.

Despite all this, I do not think Aldridge was overpaid. According to several sources, Aldridge's contract was predictable based on his age, production and projected contributions. In the end, I feel the contract was fair for all parties involved.

NB: Do you think that Aldridge is sacrificing his own stats for the team, or do you think he is what he is?

SB: The absurd amount of injuries aside, the optimist in me thinks Aldridge is always trying to make the best out of every possession. There could be some sense that Aldridge is sacrificing in order to get more wins for the team, but I don't think that is the case.

This season, some of his stats are taking a hit in part because of his shifting role and increased responsibility. I don't think he is purposely shooting less or trying to ZBO (read: pad) his stats each game though, as he doesn't strike me as either careless or malicious.

In this sense, it sort of "is what it is" in that he is working with the opportunities he's given. There are many parts of Aldridge's game that could be criticized this season, however he has consistently displayed a tireless work ethic and faithful commitment to the team.

NB: Can you name another non-all star, young PF that you would rather have than Aldridge?

SB: No.

NB: Dave Berri thinks that the gap between Tyrus Thomas and Aldridge isn't very large. Do you think Berri is totally delusional, or just on good drugs? *WARNING* Forthcoming article.

SB: I have always been under the impression that good drugs and delusions often go hand in hand.

I won't get into too much detail because you are going to take care of this yourself, but I will point out that Aldridge has averaged 15.5 points per game over his career compared to Thomas' 7.8. Aldridge has a total of 1,836 rebounds and averages seven per game; Thomas has a total of 1,236, averaging 5.1 per game over his career. Furthermore, Aldridge has played many more minutes and has a higher PER.

Berri contends that based on wins produced on a per minute basis, Thomas has done more, thus is not so far behind Aldridge and has not been such a bad deal for Chicago. To that I say, "whatever." I would take Aldridge over Thomas every time.