A.J. Burnett: Fantasy Baseball Superstar or Too Risky Option?

Eric StashinJan 24, 2010

Enigmatic. That’s the one word that really encompasses what A.J. Burnett is when he toes the rubber. It’s not even necessarily from start-to-start, either, as he can be unhittable with terrible control in the same night.

Just look at his start against Boston on August 7 as proof:

7.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 6 K, 6 BB

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So, they couldn’t touch him, but he couldn’t find the strike zone? Reminds you of his no hitter back in 2001, when he walked nine in the process. That’s just typical Burnett, which can be seen in the following line:

13 Wins
207.0 Innings
4.04 ERA
1.40 WHIP
195 Strikeouts (8.48 K/9)
97 Walks (4.22 BB/9)
.302 BABIP

His control hasn’t been that bad since early in his career. Over the past two seasons he had posted BB/9s of 3.59 and 3.50. He was also significantly better in the second half in ‘09:

First Half: 4.45 BB/9
Second Half: 3.99 BB/9

The problem is, with him, you just really never know. In 2009, he walked four batters or more nine times, but none of them came after Aug. 7. How can someone be so bad with his control early on but then find it for nearly the final two months? The moral of the story is that he is a pitcher you simply can’t trust from a control perspective, which obviously can be an awfully big problem, especially in the WHIP department.

Speaking of WHIP, a .302 BABIP is not an unreasonable number at all. In 2008, while pitching for the Blue Jays he posted a .328 mark and has a career BABIP of .294. While he may improve a little bit, it’s going to be impossible for him to post a great WHIP without significant luck.

The strikeouts were down last season, having had K/9s of 9.56 and 9.39 the prior two years. However, his career mark is at 8.37 and those were the only two years that he has posted marks above a strikeout per inning.

While he is going to be a great asset to any fantasy roster in the strikeout department (assuming he stays healthy), it’s impossible to go into the season expecting numbers like he posted in 2007 & 2008. Still, if he can stay on the mound to throw 200+ innings, he could potentially reach 190 Ks.

He has had ERAs over 4.00 each of the past two seasons and pitching in the new Yankees Stadium it’s likely that it continues for another year. The ballpark has proven too easy to score runs in (does anyone believe he can repeat a 3.51 ERA at home), coupled with his career 3.84 ERA, he’s not likely to be a strength there.

So, you put it all together, and here’s what I’m projecting for him in 2010:

200.0 IP, 16 W, 4.01 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 189 K (8.51 K/9), 87 BB (3.92 BB/9)

As you can see, I’m expecting him to take a step forward in 2010, but not a huge one. That makes him a good option, due to the strikeouts, but he has the potential to be significantly worse in the WHIP department so keep that in mind. Of course, this also assumes that he can stay healthy for an entire season, something Burnett has not always proven capable of doing.

He currently has an ADP of 125.54, meaning he’s going right around the end of the tenth round. That’s the 25th starting pitcher off the board, which is about right, but I’d still rather have some other pitchers coming off in that area, like Ubaldo Jimenez (21) or Clayton Kershaw (23). That means, chances are, I’m going in another direction over Burnett.

There’s just way too much risk in the control and health departments to trust him.

What about you? Do you trust Burnett enough to draft him? Where are you targeting him in your draft?

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