Royal Rumble: Prediction Through the Numbers

Sharif NasrContributor IJanuary 23, 2010

The Royal Rumble is only eight days away and I am trying to come up with the most educated guess on who will win the Royal Rumble. The true winner does not lie in a story line, the main event status, nor whether they have won it or not.  The true winner can be predicted by everyone’s favorite subject: math.

Okay, I jest, but looking at the numbers of the previous winner, we can make a few assumptions on who will win the Royal Rumble:

First, remember these nos. : 1,2,3,5,8,13,18,22,23,24,25,27,28,29,30. Those are all the numbers that someone who has won the Royal Rumble drew. Furthermore, the following numbers 1, 2, 24, 27, 30 are the only numbers to have repeat winners.  All except 24 (three winners) and 27 (four winners) have two each.

With that bit of information, the following are assumptions we can make about the winner:

1. Drawing a no. between 11-21 probably means you are going over the top rope:

Only two people (“Hacksaw” Jim Duggan (13) in the first Royal Rumble and Shawn Michaels (18) in Royal Rumble 1996) have won with a number between 11-21.  Story line wise, this is the section where we get many of the joke entries and this is also the section that is probably the most boring; the event is going close to half an hour and we are only half way there.

We pull for wrestlers in the 1-10 stop because they are the underdogs of the event and we know wrestlers from 22-30 have a “huge” advantage. Having a winner from one of these spots isn’t as fun to root for or against as someone earlier or later on. Besides, the last time someone in the teens won it was 14 years ago.

2. Drawing a one or a two gives you a better chance to win than drawing 30:

Four winners came from the one or two spots to win it all: Shawn Michaels, 1 in 1995; Vince McMahon, two in 1999; Chris Benoit, one in 2004; and Rey Mysterio, two in 2006.  While two wrestlers, the Undertaker in 2007 and John Cena in 2008, drew the no. 30 spot.

For most of its history, there really was no advantage of holding the number 30 spots as it took 19 years before someone with the 30 spot to win it all, and it happened two years in a row. While the last time someone one with the no. one spot was six years ago and four years for no. two, could we see someone go the distance? There is a good chance of that.

3. No. eight won last year, but don’t expect it again:

We can pretty much eliminate the eight spot since Randy Orton won from that position last year. Only twice has the same no. won in back-to-back years: the no. 30 spot as mentioned before and no. 27 in 1993 and 1994; though in ’94 there were two winners, which is the same for the no. 23 spot as well. Last year was the first time someone won at eight. So unless the love child of The Rock, Stone Cold Steve Austin, and John Cena comes out at eight, no one is winning at eight.

4. In he last eight years, a pattern has developed; I call it the Multiple/First Time Pattern:

Since 2004, the winning number from the Royal Rumble has followed a pattern, one year a spot that has won before wins it, followed by a year when a first time spot has won it. Take a look at the chart below:

2004- Chris Benoit, one spot (second time that spot won, Multiple)

2005- Batista, 28 spot (first time that spot won, First Time)

2006- Rey Mysterio, two spot (Multiple)

2007- The Undertaker, 30 spot (First Time)

2008- John Cena, 30 spot (Multiple)

2009- Randy Orton, eight spot (First time)

Also note that in 2000 and 2001, we had multiple win and in 2002 and 2003, were first time. I cannot guarantee that this pattern will hold, but it does give us a few numbers to eliminate for the sake of the pattern: 4,6,7,9,10,11,12,14-17,19,20,21,26.  Sorry if your favorite wrestler gets that number because, they are not going to win. For each of the multiple, it was only the second time that number had won it all, but that doesn' mean that we should forget the following:

5. All glory belongs to the nos. 24 and 27:

Seven out of 22 winners held either 24 or 27, which is 32%, and that’s pretty good.  The last winner to hold either number was Stone Cold Steve Austin in 2001 with 27 (24 won the year before with The Rock). It’s been a while since we have had either one those numbers win. Just like the Undertaker being 17-0 in Wrestlemania, it is always good to bring legend to a number, and this legend being if you hold 24 or 27, you have the best chance at winning.  Also note that the Multiple/First Time Pattern started with two multiples, 24 and 27.

With this bit of knowledge it is time for my prediction. Using the information provided and plugging it all into the pattern I have come up with, the winning nos. for the next four Royal Rumbles. 

The winner of this year's Royal Rumble will come from number 27 .The year after will be 24 . The year after that 21 , and the year after that 26 . I feel these four years will bring a wonderful end to the multiple/first time pattern, as it started with 27 and 24 being the multiple and 22 (Triple H in 2002) and 29 (Brock Lesner in 2009), being the first time number. Those first time numbers are both high, and even though 21 falls into the dreaded 11-21 area, so did 22 until 2002. It was followed by a higher number, 29 being the second highest possible and only the first time someone won from that spot.

While we can look at these numbers and try to make an educated guess, there is only one rule of math that applies to all Royal Rumbles: everyone has a 1 and 30 chance of winning.