Rafael Furcal: Fantasy Baseball Rebound Candidate or Write-Off?

We all remember the days when Rafael Furcal was among the top shortstops in the game, don’t we?  That seems like ages ago, as he has fallen on hard times the past few seasons.

In 2008, it was injuries that limited him (143 AB).  In 2009, it was complete inability:

• 613 At-Bats
  
• .269 Batting Average (165 Hits)
  
• Nine Home Runs
  
• 47 RBI
  
• 92 Runs
  
• 12 Stolen Bases
  
• .335 On Base Percentage
  
• .375 Slugging Percentage
  
• .303 Batting Average on Balls in Play

First let’s talk about the positives...OK, well, at least the single positive, because there’s only one number there that is truly encouraging: the runs scored. 

As long as the Dodgers continue to trust him at the top of their order, he should be in position to score a significant number of runs once again. 

That’s what happens when you have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Manny Ramirez waiting to chase you around the bases every time you get on.

Unfortunately, that’s where things end.  Well, sort of.  The other numbers we are about to get into have to be put into perspective.  In his effort to return from back surgery, it’s very possible that it took him the first few months of the season to get re-acclimated to the game.

His legs used to provide his value, stealing as many as 46 bases in a season (2005).  Last season, while he stole just 12, five of them came in September (in six attempts).

What’s interesting is that, prior to that, he just wasn’t running:

• April: four attempts
• May: two attempts
• June: two attempts
• July: two attempts
• August: one attempt

Was it that his previous back injury made it uncomfortable for him to attempt to run?  It is a possibility, and his outburst at the end of the season certainly does give owners a touch of hope that he could rebound in the speed department.

Does he have the upside of a 35-40 SB threat?  Probably not, since he had only 25 stolen bases in 2007, prior to his injury.  Still, getting into the mid-20s would have value.

How about the average?  Could the back injury have been affecting him there as well?  He has a career BABIP of .318, so it certainly is possible that he has some upside potential there, especially if the injury is what was limiting him.

Again, however, it’s tough to say with certainty that he is going to get back to that mark.  In 2007, prior to the injury, he posted a BABIP of .298.

How about the strikeouts?  Let’s take a look at his monthly rates:

• April: 17.05 percent
  
• May: 15.63 percent
  
• June: 17.78 percent
  
• July: 11.11 percent
  
• August: 15.97 percent
  
• September: 11.43 percent
  

He obviously improved, especially in the second half, lending credence to the theory that the back injury was the major problem.  This is one stat that I think he will certainly be better with in 2010.  From 2003-2007, he only had one season over a 12.7 percent strikeout rate.

So, the real question is, what type of gamble do you put into Furcal for 2010?  Before answering that, let’s look at my projection for him:

.270 (155-575), 10 HR, 45 RBI, 90 R, 22 SB, .296 BABIP, .339 OBP, .388 SLG

You can see that I’m expecting a rebound, but that I also expect that he will continue his career a far cry from the player he used to be.  I really just don’t believe that his struggles were solely due to the remnants of his injury.  While he has some upside potential, he is far from a player that I would focus on.

The position is rich of players who could be the player that Furcal once was, like Elvis Andrus (click here to see my 2010 projection), Everth Cabrera (click here to see my 2010 projection), and Alcides Escobar (click here to see my 2010 projection).

I’d much rather take the risk on one of them, as opposed to the huge injury risk (among other things) hanging over Furcal.  Unless I am caught in a desperate spot, it is unlikely that I will have Furcal on any of my teams in 2010.

What about you?  Is Furcal a player you still think can produce like a top option at shortstop?  Are you looking to draft him?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including:

• Andrus, Elvis
• Baker, Scott
• Beckham, Gordon
• Blanks, Kyle
• Butler, Billy
• Cabrera, Everth
• Cain, Matt
• Correia, Kevin
• Davis, Chris
• Escobar, Alcides
• Harang, Aaron
• Kershaw, Clayton
• Kouzmanoff, Kevin
• Lee, Derrek
• Lopez, Jose
• Nolasco, Ricky
• Oswalt, Roy
• Pena, Carlos
• Peralta, Jhonny
• Rasmus, Colby
• Reimold, Nolan
• Shields, James
• Suzuki, Ichiro
• Upton, B.J.
• Vazquez, Javier
• Votto, Joey
• Werth, Jayson
• Wieters, Matt

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