I Can't Sleep: How The Saints Will Win Sunday

We are one day away from one of the best days of my life or one of the most disappointing days of my life.  There is only word to describe my mood here in New Orleans this week…anxious.  I feel like I’m going to play a game on Sunday.  In fact I haven’t done this much film study in my life.  Usually by this time I’ve moved on to my analysis of Senior Bowl players.  Do people really think Tim Tebow translates to an NFL QB?  I haven’t even acknowledged the fact that there is a game in the AFC yet.  Instead my entire focus has been, what are the Saints weaknesses and how can we sure them up?  Where are the Vikings vulnerable and how can we take advantage?  What are the keep match ups that will swing advantages in this contest that resembles a tennis match?  Farve and Brees, Bush and Harvin, Allen and Smith…oh my!  After all of this film study I broke down the players and the keys I think will determine the outcome of this NFC Championship match up.

First things first…the obvious…yes whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game.  Ball security is always a must and if you look at the Saints Vikings game from last year turnovers determined the outcome of that game and most NFL games.  Now as most football fans know Brett Farve in the past has been known to throw up a lot of ill advised throws during his career.  This year he only has seven INT’s, his lowest total in his career. 

The reason for his brilliance is simple and his name is Adrian Peterson.  With Peterson on the field eight man fronts are a necessity and the key to any defense is to stop the run first then worry about the back end.  What this leads to is Brett Farve getting a lot of single coverage on the outside and successful pre snap reads.  So a key match up in this game will be Darren Sharper confusing Farve on his pre snap reads and Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer holding serve and doing what they've done all year in man to man coverage.  Decent play by these three guys along with Jonathan Vilma and Sedrick Ellis in the middle is essential.

Push from Sedrick Ellis stepping into Brett Farve’s throwing lanes is the next essential component for a Saints victory.  When I looked at the games Farve lost this year there was one constant theme, pressure from the opposing defense inside.  They used stunts, speed and power to get in Farve’s throwing lanes and the good thing for the Saints is that’s exactly what they did to stymie the Cardinals and Kurt Warner last week.  These key components should help assist the Saints offense in their quest for the franchise’s first Super bowl birth. 

Offensively the Saints have to keep the Vikings off balance as they done most of the year to opposing defenses.  Since I’m anticipating the Vikings dropping their linebackers to combat seem throws by Drew Brees, I see Reggie Bush having another good game in the playoffs.  Another key for the Saints will be running out of three wide receiver sets.  When you run three wide sets Pat Williams comes off the field for the Vikings and you neutralize a huge part of the Vikings run defense.  Once running lanes are open and if the Saints are successful running the ball they are impossible to stop because you will always be off balance as a defense and Sean Payton and Drew Brees will pick you apart.  If you look at that Vikings game last year the Saints had little trouble moving the ball in the first half but a blocked kick for a TD, two fumbles and an interception in the first half lost the game for the Saints.

The Vikings and the Saints are both different teams than they were last year.  The key addition for the Vikings was Brett Farve and the key addition for the Saints was defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and ironically the performance of both of those men will play a part in who will get the chance to compete in Superbowl XLIV.  Is there another game this weekend?  I guess so…  Who will stand out in the Senior Bowl?  Who knows? At this point, in this game on, this Sunday nothing else matters…or as we say in New Orleans…it’s Lagniappe.