MLB's Five Fantasy Gems: Why Jose Lopez May Out-Produce Brandon Phillips

There are lots of debates in the world of fantasy baseball: Who is the No. 1 overall pick in your draft, Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez? Should you take Alex Rodriguez fourth or fifth? Who is the better first baseman between Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Miguel Cabrera?

The truth is, it really doesn't matter. If you're lucky enough to have one of the first two picks, you're going to have a stud on your hands either way. If you miss out on A-Rod because he's taken fourth overall, it isn't the worst thing in the world to have to take another infielder like Chase Utley fifth. Similarly, Fielder, Howard, and Cabrera are pretty much interchangable.

They are all high-end fantasy stars who will carry the bulk of the weight on your team. There is a saying that drafts are not won in the first 10 rounds, but they can be lost. That holds true regardless of the format you are participating in. If you stick with reliable producers in the first half of your draft, you'll be in much better shape when you start to speculate on people lower down.

But just because you already have 10 spots on your roster filled, it doesn't mean there are not some reliable names still out there. In fact, there are likely still several low-risk options—guys who are experienced, virtually injury free, and who are expected to see the lion's share of playing time at their position.

Here are five options for the 2010 season, all of who will be around when your draft enters round 10.

Jose Lopez, 2B

Lopez has been hovering around the 10th round of most mock drafts, which puts him being drafted in between Dan Uggla and Howie Kendrick.

Interestingly, you get a little of both men in Lopez. He will hit more home runs than Kendrick, with a worse batting average, but he'll hit fewer homers than Uggla with a better batting average.

If you can’t afford to grab Uggla in the sixth or seventh round, Lopez is a perfect replacement, especially if you can find that little bit of extra power elsewhere.

2009 showed signs of growth despite a slow start and he may not be done yet. He’s an elite-level contact hitter who experienced a power growth after the All-Star break. If he adds them both together, you get be rewarded with Uggla’s power and Kendrick’s BA.

Who wouldn’t want to take a 30-homer, .300 bat in round 10. Brandon Phillips has been going in the middle of the third round...Lopez could out-produce him in 2010.

Corey Hart, OF

In mock drafts over the last few weeks, Hart has been going around the 15th round of a 12-team draft, or 185th overall.

He barely makes the top 50 outfielders and in some leagues he has not even been drafted at all. Not once in the last fortnight has he been taken inside the first 10 rounds, or 120 picks, in any format.

Hart has seen his power and speed freefall over the last few years and that means he will be overlooked by most owners in 2010. In theory, he should be coming into the stage of his career where his power is be on the rise, but, unfortunately, he has seen an almost universal collapse in skills. Don't let 2009 overshadow his worth.

His contact percentage dropped to 78 percent from 82 percent in 2008 and with it went his batting average. Make no mistake, he's not going to put up numbers that he did in 2007. But that doesn't mean he's not going to bring value from where you drafted him. People rave about Nate McLouth (who is being drafted in the seventh or eight round) but Hart is every bit as good as him.

Hart still has that likeable combination of above-average power and speed and he has improved his eye, so there is hope of a productive 2010. If you need a third or fourth outfielder, Hart is not a bad option. He may not jump back up to his 2007 skill set overnight, but he should see a lot of playing time in Milwaukee.

A .270 average, 18 home runs, and 20 steals is still going to be useful whatever format you play in. While others around you are scrambling for Colby Rasmus, Hart is a much better mid-to-late game flier with higher upside.

Jermaine Dye, OF

Dye is too good not to be snapped up for a team this winter, and you should view him the same way, especially for a guy getting drafted around the 14th round because of his uncertainty.

His back obviously gave him some problems in the second half of last season, but there’s nothing to suggest that the days of 25 home runs are behind him.

He’s not going to perform over the course of a whole season as well as he did in the first half of 2009 (18 home runs, .295 batting average), but similarly he isn’t as bad as his post All-Star numbers suggest.

The obvious truth is that he lies somewhere between the two. He still makes solid contact with the ball, as evidenced by his 78 percent contact rate which remained in tact even when he slumped in July and August last year. He also still owns above-average power and knows how to draw a walk.

Don’t go into your draft expecting a rebound to 2008, but do not hesitate to pull the trigger on him if he falls to you as a third outfield option in round 12. He has a pretty solid history of good health, is an experienced hitter, and should get close to 500 at-bats wherever he ends up setting up camp in 2010.

The Cubs and Padres are both rumored to be interested in Dye, and even though neither park is as conducive to a right-handed power hitter like US Cellular Field is, Wrigley Field isn’t an awful place to end up. Temper your projections more if he ends up in PETCO—that place is a death trap for all batters. Pay for 25 homers and a .260 average.

I’ve got him pegged down to out-produce Hunter Pence who is getting drafted on average in the middle of the eighth round and as early as the sixth.

Bengie Molina, C

Molina finally re-signed with the Giants this week after a “will he-wont he” seesaw with the Mets. Molina is a top 10 fantasy catcher and I believe he is great value in the 13th round (158th overall) in a 12-team draft.

He won’t help you too much in any leagues which count walks, and he is only an average option in terms of his batting average, but his value comes from his home run-centric approach to batting.

Molina has apparently decided to punt getting on base, instead focusing his attention on going yard. More than half of all his batted balls in 2009 were fly balls, and it comes as no surprise that he cracked the 20 home run plateau at the expense of his batting average.

If you can afford to weather the hit that his .265 BA will do to you team, Molina can be an elite source of power behind the plate.

He is really just Brian McCann, who is a fourth round selection, with 20 points fewer on his batting average.

Jorge Cantu, 1B/3B

Cantu is being drafted around round 15 in mock drafts right now, roughly the 17th first baseman. Cantu, who should also have eligibility at third base, is on a par with guys like Billy Butler who is being drafted 100 places higher than Cantu, around the sixth round.

Butler will give you around 22 home runs, 90 RBI, and a .290 average. He makes decent contact with the ball and has an average eye, but he’s very much a ground ball hitter. Cantu will likely hit 18-20 home runs and post 80 RBI and a .285 average.

Butler is obviously the better overall player, but if you could get a cheaper version of him some eight or 10 rounds later, I don’t think there’s much contest when it comes to value.