Big Ten Expansion: 242 Possibilities, One Real Chance (Hint: It's Not ND)

When the Big Ten first announced that it was considering expansion just over a month ago, a firestorm of speculation swept across the sports world as bloggers and commentators suggested nearly every school as a possible addition.  However, after a pause from the first crazed activity, determining the realistic candidates is easy.   Rather than trying to list a few candidates, we simply have to consider all 231 Division I schools that are not currently in the Big Ten and eliminate those which do not meet the criteria.

Thus we will begin our discussion with:

1. Academically Fit

University presidents will have a primary role in inviting a new member. This concept puzzles most observers who do not understand that the Big Ten is fundamentally a coalition of large, prestigious, research-focused state schools (and Northwestern, a small, prestigious, research-focused private school).  Whatever school is added will fit the same mold.

Schools eliminated: (59)

West Virginia, Louisville, UConn, USF, all the non-BCS schools (except maybe a few like Rice, Buffalo, or Utah, but they have other issues so I'm going to eliminate them now), Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

Marginal:

Nebraska, Missouri, Notre Dame (very good undergraduate, unspectacular research output)

Number Remaining: 172

2. Expanded Audience

With their own TV channel, the Big Ten receives about $.70 a household for anyone in a Big Ten state.  Thus the new school must not be in a current Big Ten state (except Notre Dame, because their addition would cause BTN to be on basic cable nationwide).  Furthermore, the added state must have sizable markets and the school must be able to deliver those markets.

Schools eliminated: (Eight)

Iowa State, Cincinnati, Pitt (would be a great fit otherwise), Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Syracuse (anyone who thinks Syracuse can deliver New York is fooling themselves), Boston College (same thing, but Boston)

Marginal:

Rutgers (Do they control the NY market? Do they even control the NJ market?), Nebraska (Is their national-ish fan base enough to make up for their tiny state?)

Number of Schools Remaining: 164

3. Athletics

The new school must be good at sports (duh).  This attribute is difficult to quantify.  The best way I have of putting this point is, "if the school played OSU in an average year for both, would it be a big game?"  I'm focusing on football because that sport is what drives revenue, though having a wider sports program would obviously be a plus.

Schools eliminated: (122)

Any I-AA school (I have no idea why people even mention this idea.)

Marginal:

Rutgers (any game by OSU in the shadow of NYC would be huge), Missouri

Number of Schools Remaining: 42

4. Desire to Join

It takes two to tango.  Determining what schools look best to a small group of money-grubbing academic elitists is reasonably easy.  Determining the end result of a decision made by a confluence of state politics, boosters, faculty, alumni, chancellors, trustees, and athletic directors is much more difficult.  However, I can list a few schools that would not even call back if the Big Ten were to ask:

Any SEC school (money is about the same as the Big Ten, maybe more), any Pac-10 school (conference is too close-knit), any pre-2003 ACC school (also a tightly-linked group), and Notre Dame (too fond of "rogue" image and national schedule).  The service academies (Army, Navy) will stay independent as well.  

Schools Eliminated: 34

Number of Schools Remaining:Eight

We have reached the end of the journey.  If the Big Ten expands, it will be one of the following:

Rutgers, Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado, Virginia Tech, or Miami

Quick thoughts on each one:

Rutgers

I do not think Rutgers can deliver the markets as required.  Perhaps in 10 years if it becomes a huge power and we have this discussion again, but I would be surprised if Rutgers were invited in this round.

Missouri

If the Big Ten had to invite a school tomorrow that was sure to accept, it might ask Missouri.  However, it is a cut below what the conference would like in several areas.  No single point is bad enough to completely eliminate it, but the combination might.

Nebraska

Nebraska has the opposite problem—its academics might single-handedly block it.  I cannot see the faculty leadership at a place like Michigan or Wisconsin accepting Nebraska as an equal.  Other than that drawback, it would be a top-notch candidate.  

Texas

If the Big Ten does not at least have talks with Texas I will be very disappointed.  Texas is off the charts in all of these points.  I do not have a strong understanding of how seriously Texas would consider the proposal, but the better television money (about $10-15 million more per year), its weak ties to the Big XII (other than Texas A&M and Oklahoma), and increased access to the Big Ten academic community would be arguments in favor. However, increased travel costs could be a negative.

Colorado/Texas A&M

The only way I can envision Colorado or Texas A&M joining would be as a package deal with Texas.  If state politics plays as large a role as it did during the Big XII formation in 1996, perhaps Texas and Texas A&M would join the Big Ten together.  

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech is far too pleased with its new ACC connections to consider jumping conferences.  They probably should be in the "would not call back" list.  

Miami

I was surprised that Miami came up on this list.  Though it has shown an openness to conference hopping in the past, if the Big Ten is going to invite someone that far away, Texas is a far better choice.  

The final conclusion?  The Big Ten has added one team in past 60 years—Penn State, an athletic, academic, and market powerhouse.  With standards like that, the only real possibility is Texas.  Barring the admittedly unlikely scenario that both sides can reach an agreement, I think that Big Ten will happily remain at 11 schools.  

Note: Obviously several of the schools eliminated are not appropriate in several categories.  I've tried to list them in their most obvious or severe flaw.