What the Roy Halladay Trade Means for the Philadelphia Phillies' Future

So you were sitting at work on Dec. 14, contemplating getting another cup of coffee to avoid the "2:30 feel," as the "5-Hour Energy shot" commercial says, and you overheard your colleagues talking about Roy Halladay.

After a few seconds, you began to realize that your beloved team, the team that is known for offseason trades of has-been pitchers (Freddy Garcia) and free agent signings of never-has-been pitchers (Adam Eaton), actually did something to make them better.

The Phillies signed Roy Halladay! The kicker is, they even got him to agree to a three-year extension! Finally, they used the offseason to do something smart.

Not so fast. It's been a month since the deal, so we've almost all made up our minds on whether or not it was a "good" move or a "not so good" move—I hesitate to use the word "bad" because no deal in which you acquire one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball is a "bad" move.

First, let's refresh your memory and recap the deal.

The Phillies got Roy Halladay, $6 million, Phillippe Aumont (RHP), Juan Ramirez (RHP), and Tyson Gillies (OF).

The Blue Jays got Kyle Drabek (RHP), Michael Taylor (OF), and Travis D'Arnaud (C).

The Mariners got Cliff Lee. 

Let's break it down and see how it affects the Phillies in the short term and long term.

Because of the money that the Blue Jays so generously handed over, the Phillies won't be paying Halladay any more than they would have Lee. Lee was set to make $9 million, with Halladay a little over $15 million. After this year, Halladay's extension kicks in, and we get to watch Roy Halladay in Phillies red for at least three more seasons—through 2013. Brilliant!

So at least in the short term, the next one to two years, this is one of the best deals the Phillies have made in their history. A rotation of Halladay-Cole Hamels-Joe Blanton-J.A. Happ-Jamie Moyer, while it has serious questions at the four and five spots, easily has the ability to make World Series runs, especially with the offensive firepower behind it.

But...what about the questions surrounding the future?

Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud: These were all players expected to, sooner or later, contribute on a Major League level. As of now, the depth chart after the 2011 season is astonishing, with so many questions left to be answered.

C-
1B-
2B-Chase Utley
SS-
3B-
LF-
CF-
RF-

SP-Roy Halladay
SP-
SP-J.A. Happ
SP-
SP-Kyle Kendrick

RP-Brad Lidge

After 2010, Jayson Werth might walk. After the 2011 season, Utley, Halladay, Happ, Kendrick, and Lidge are the only players with Major League experience guaranteed to be (more or less) on the roster. Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino are all free agents, as is almost the entire team.

Granted, they will likely re-sign Jimmy Rollins, but what will Ruben Amaro Jr. do with Howard, Werth, Victorino, and the plethora of vacant roster spots for the 2012 season? 

If they win another World Series or two, free agents will be knocking on their doorstep. That is where Amaro needs to be careful. Are the Phillies going to be the next Yankees and turn into a franchise that just signs free agents? Or will they continue to develop homegrown talent—the strategy that has been nothing but success so far?

Obviously, prospects can come up from the farm too—but not all prospects are created equal. Players like Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor are special. They don't just magically appear in your farm system one day.

Sure, Phillippe Aumont may turn into the next phenom, but if Amaro and company didn't judge the players they got in return as well as their own players correctly, the Phillies could be in for a long ride in 2012 and beyond—and that's a ride on a road that Phillies fans have travelled too many times.