Chicago Cubs After Kiko Calero: Clever or Calamitous?

According to multiple sources, the Chicago Cubs and free-agent relief pitcher Kiko Calero are in negotiations on what looks to be a one- or two-year contract, worth slightly less than $2 million annually. Calero, 35, went 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA in 60 innings of work for the Florida Marlins in 2009.

Though Calero, whose 1.36 WPA (win probability added, a highly useful measure of the effectiveness of relief pitchers that assigns run values to the base/out states and each possible event that can occur within them) ranked 37th out of 145 qualifying relievers, has a wicked slider and gives up very few hits, health has been an issue for him throughout his Major-League career.

Injuries slowed Calero's development and did not allow him to reach the Majors until the age of 28, in 2003. Shoulder problems have cost him parts of the last three seasons, as well. His delivery, which involves a strange alignment of the shoulders at the point of release, may create this strain.

Chicago does not want to offer the aging right-hander a two-year contract, a demand from which Calero's representation has yet to back down. The length, however, should not bear undue influence upon the average value of the deal.

Calero's aforementioned slider, one of the league's ten best among relievers, makes him exceptionally tough on right-handed batters: they had a measly .475 OPS against him last season. That caliber of out pitch allowed Calero to strike out 10.35 batters per nine innings last season.

For a right-handed pitcher, Calero also does a great job against the running game: he picked off four base-runners last season, and allowed seven stolen bases in only ten attempts.

Wildness and an extreme tendency toward fly balls tarnish an otherwise exceptional profile, but Calero could depend on a bump from Chicago's defense, which is superior to Florida's at nearly every position.

Calero would be good insurance against injury or regression by Angel Guzman, and (because his solid change-up is effective against left-handers) could step comfortably into the set-up role. That would allow manager Lou Piniella to use re-signed southpaw John Grabow, whom Chicago never should have brought back, exclusively against left-handed batters, thereby saving the organization runs and embarrassment.

Calero is no sure-fire relief ace, and indeed, should be handled carefully by Chicago if and when they sign him. The upside of the deal, however, might be enough to entice Hendry to make it.