Tony Stewart transitioning to ownership? Jeff Gordon looking at retiring after the 2010 season? Jimmie Johnson admitting he won't race much longer after Gordon retires?
Three of NASCAR's top stars could be out from behind the wheel by 2015 if the right cards fall into place.
Combine that with the recent retirements and part-time schedules of Mark Martin, Rusty Wallace, Dale Jarrett, and Bill Elliott, and teams' needs to replace top drivers are at all-time highs.
Sure, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. will still be around.
Plenty of top drivers will continue to make the rounds in NASCAR's top series long after the combined 147 wins, 565 top-10s, 89 poles, and eight championships (and counting) of Stewart, Gordon, and Johnson are nothing more than statistics.
But which driver will be the next Stewart, or Gordon, or Johnson?
This is where teams' development programs come into play. They're usually hit-or-miss, with some drivers becoming stars (Joey Logano) and far more drivers becoming forgotten (Blake Feese, Boston Reid, Joel Kauffman, Todd Kluever... the list goes on).
However, NASCAR's teams have currently scouted out plenty of drivers who have the prerequisite skill to dominate the Sprint Cup Series in a few years, when the series' top stars start retiring.
This list contains brief profiles of the ten drivers I have judged to be most capable of bringing a Sprint Cup to their respective teams in the coming years.
In order to be on this list, the driver in question must never have won a Sprint Cup Series race, attempted more than two full seasons in Sprint Cup, or won a Nationwide Series race prior to 2007.
Without further ado:
10. Michael Annett, Bill Davis Racing
Davis' latest hot property currently drives the No. 22 Toyota Tundra in the Craftsman Truck series in a part-time schedule.
Consistently performing well in Truck and ARCA starts is the first step towards gaining a Sprint Cup ride, and Annett's two wins in eight ARCA starts bodes well in that respect.
In his debut in the No. 22 truck, he finished sixth at Milwaukee.
9. Landon Cassill, Hendrick Motorsports
Currently the lead driver of Hendrick's No. 5 Nationwide car, Cassill is potentially being groomed as a replacement for Jeff Gordon.
He hasn't failed to finish a race since his series debut at Gateway last year. Occasionally driving the No. 46 truck for Morgan-Dollar Motorsports, Cassill just finished third at Milwaukee.
Hendrick has enough time to develop Cassill into a top-caliber driver.
- B/R Ticket Guide
8. A.J. Allmendinger, Team Red Bull
Since getting back in the No. 84 Sprint Cup car after being replaced for five races, Allmendinger has kept the car going in the right direction—six straight races running at the finish and a career-best 12th at Pocono attest to that.
His win in the Sprint Showdown, the last-chance race to gain entry into the Sprint All-Star Race, proves that the former Champ Car driver is starting to get the hang of this stock-car thing.
7. David Reutimann, Michael Waltrip Racing
One of the best Nationwide Series drivers currently competing in the series, Reutimann is the de facto lead driver at Michael Waltrip Racing.
He scored his first top-10 finish this season in the Coca-Cola 600, and his first Nationwide Series win at Memphis late last year.
After finishing second in Nationwide points in 2007, Reutimann inherited the UPS sponsorship from the retiring Jarrett and has kept the car steadily within the top 35 in owners' points.
6. Scott Speed, Team Red Bull
Ranked sixth, if only for his Formula One experience, Speed has shown flashes of brilliance in trucks and ARCA, winning his sixth career truck race at Dover for Bill Davis Racing's No. 22 team.
He currently sits second in ARCA points, driving the No. 2 Toyota for Eddie Sharp Racing.
Besides his obvious talent, Speed brings a little European flair to a racing series desperate to gain footing globally.
5. Aric Almirola, Dale Earnhardt Inc.
Currently splitting the No. 8 US Army Chevrolet with Martin in the Sprint Cup Series, Almirola is regarded highly by many teams in the garage, and has been promised a full-time ride by DEI in 2009.
He finished eighth in his season debut at Bristol this year.
In 2007, he scored the pole in the first race of the season at Daytona, and was awarded the win at Milwaukee despite being replaced in his car mid-race by Denny Hamlin, thus leading to his departure from Joe Gibbs Racing.
Max Siegel immediately snapped up the young driver to replace Regan Smith in the no. 01 car with Martin.
4. Marcos Ambrose, JTG Racing
The two-time Australian V8 Supercar champion is scheduled to run a total of 12 Sprint Cup races this season for JTG Racing and the Wood Brothers.
In his rookie season in the Nationwide Series last year, he finished eighth in points, the highest driver not also competing in Sprint Cup, and finished second in Rookie of the Year points to David Ragan.
This year, in the Nationwide race at Mexico City, the affable Australian finished second to Kyle Busch, his best career finish in any major NASCAR series.
3. Brad Keselowski, Hendrick Motorsports
Currently ranked second in Nationwide Series points for JR Motorsports, Keselowski is rumored to partner with Martin in the No. 5 Sprint Cup car for Hendrick Motorsports in 2009.
In 17 Nationwide starts so far this season with JRM, Hendrick's de facto development team, he has scored nine top-10s and a victory at Nashville.
Since being hired to drive the No. 88 US Navy Chevrolet last season, Keselowski has only suffered four DNFs in 31 starts.
2. Joey Logano, Joe Gibbs Racing
Winning in his third Nationwide Series start was just the first of many triumphs expected from the Connecticut phenom.
Potentially Tony Stewart's replacement in the No. 20 in Sprint Cup next year, Logano has been lauded since Mark Martin first brought him to NASCAR's attention three years ago.
Already the 18-year-old appears ready to contend for race wins and Chase positioning, and he has the best team in the Nationwide Series behind him.
Logano has handled the pressure placed upon him magnificently thus far and has shown no reason for anyone to expect anything less.
1. David Ragan, Roush Fenway Racing
People will call me crazy for ranking Ragan over Logano, but Ragan has consistently overachieved in Sprint Cup since being installed into the No. 6 Ford.
Roush Fenway has always regarded Ragan as their fifth driver, but it hasn't stopped him from contending for the Chase this season (he's currently ranked 14th) or consistently improving in the Nationwide Series.
Ragan's four top-five's so far this year matches last season's total, and his 10 top-10s are one more than he had all of last year.
Only Juan Pablo Montoya prevented him from winning Sprint Cup Rookie of the Year in 2007.
When Roush Fenway drops one team in 2010, expect Ragan to have won his first race, and perhaps made his first Chase. As he steadily improves, the No. 6 may yet again be one of the top two or three teams in NASCAR.
Honorable Mentions:
Colin Braun, Roush Fenway Racing; Brad Coleman, Hall of Fame Racing; Erik Darnell, Roush Fenway Racing; Chad McCumbee, Petty Enterprises; Michael McDowell, Michael Waltrip Racing
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4 months ago
Ragan is the perfect choice for #1. He'll win 2 cups. Print that.
Check the list of drivers that Bill Davis has brought to Nationwide and Cup since 1988.
I'd take anyone he picks.
Scott Speed is a lock as is Logano. Ambrose is in. All three are stars , let 'em run 'em right now.
Kez, probably, maybe. The rest will be field bets.
But ... I'd put the lot of them in Cup right now and let them hash it out on top rather than develop. The cars they drive below Cup have no relevance to what they'll drive when they make the break. Wait too long and this COT thing will break them.
Besides ... you know you have a list of 12 Cup drivers that do not belong there ... don't you.
from 4 months ago
12 guys who don't belong right now? For the heck of it, let's throw some names out.
Regan Smith
Michael Waltrip
J.J. Yeley
Paul Menard
Reed Sorenson
Scott Riggs
Casey Mears
Dario Franchitti
Joe Nemechek
Johnny Sauter
Tony Raines
Kyle Petty (Kyle, please, please work with the VJCs and Petty Enterprises full-time. They need you more as an ambassador and manager than a driver.)
I don't know... that was actually pretty hard once I got past Menard, especially with guys like Nemechek and Petty who I've always loved to watch. I think guys like Franchitti have really earned their shot to try and drive in a different type of car, but he's had the most problems so far.
4 months ago
Agree with all your picks...minus Allmendinger. He's not consistent enough yet. He may be qualifying for races now...nut he seems to have a lot of troubles during the actual race. It wouldn't surprise me that, if he keeps struggling, he'll end up back in Open Wheel by 2010.
Anyway, nice piece my man. The future of NASCAR seems to be pretty bright.
from 4 months ago
I agree with this. I'd replace Allmendinger on the list with Colin Braun (pronounced "Brown"). He was fantastic as a teen in the Grand Am series and will get better as he builds time in trucks before moving into Cup.
Only problem is Jack Roush doesn't have enough seats to put him up and coming talent into. Braun should be ready for a full-time Cup ride next year. He's young enough to give another year in trucks, though. McMurrary is on the way out at Roush, Edwards should be secure for years to come, as will Ragan. If Biffle is in for 3 more years, then that will put Kenseth's continued employment in question past 2009/2010. I would expect Braun to move up into that seat.
And as much as I like Ambrose, and he could pave the way for other Aussie V8 Supercar drivers to come in to NASCAR, I don't think he's one that belongs on the list.
from 4 months ago
Well, depending upon how the other Ford teams are doing, Roush could farm Braun out to Yates or the Wood Brothers for a season or two when he's ready. Same with Darnell.
It's funny how Roush's young drivers now are so much better than Todd Kluever and Danny O'Quinn Jr., who were mediocre at best. Then again, those couple years seemed sort of bad for developing talent for some reason.
4 months ago
I would agree with most of your picks. The major factor seems to be car owner. Imagine if Jeff Gordon had stuck it out with Bill Davis, I doubt he would have ever won a championship.
Reutimann will hopefully not go down with the MWR ship. Ragan has all the makings of being a Kurt Busch type Roush racer... meaning hit everything for a few years then end up winning the championship.
My personal favorite from your list is Scott Speed. This guy is going to show us something in the coming years. Between Speed and Almendinger, and Vickers, and all the money Red Bull is pumping into those Toyota's, I expect them to grow wings pretty soon. Vickers is showing us what the cars can do every week now.
Great piece.
4 months ago
Wonderful article!
4 months ago
It is sad that Scot Speed could not do much in F1, but he is one of my fav drivers.
4 months ago
RE: List of dead weights.
I agree totally on all but have misgivings on Franchitti and Sauter.
Mr. Judd has been fast this weekend so far and might do well on flat tracks, something he's run alot, and I would miss Mrs. Judd in the garage. We'll check back in 12 months.
Johnny Sauter is just a personal favorite of mine. He's had a couple of fast runs these past 3 seasons but ...
4 months ago
What,no Steven Wallace? He sits top 12 in Nationwide points,already has 2 top 5's and has shown considerable improvement. He will be better then both his uncles and with poppa Rusty guiding his career this guy has it all laid out for him (Keep an eye on his cousin Chrissy as well,she may become the best female Cup driver ever).
from 4 months ago
Chrissy wallace is a strong racer but at the same time she has an attitude that will get her into trouble with her sponsors/team. once I went to an HMS race and after the race had ended she was mad and rear ended Kyle Grissom on the back straight away after he passed her on one of the last laps. It messed up her car and was a waste of money.
4 months ago
I agree with most of your list minus David Reutimann, he has been in Cup for 2 seasons now and hasnt really impressed me at all but I guess you never know.
I think Id take Ragan as my number 1 to, he has been more consistant than any of the guys in Cup racing and has the upper hand on the COT that the non-cup up and comers have.
4 months ago
It would be interesting to know what everyone thinks of up and coming drivers who have not yet made it to Nationwide or Cup teams yet. There are so many that could potentially make it if they got the right break.
Kyle Grissom, Jake Crum, Coleman Pressely, Derrell Wallace Jr., just to name a few I've noticed...
from 4 months ago
also I really think that Chrissy Wallace has the potential andi s very talented. She especially has an upper hand being a girl aswell.
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