Jack Morris: How Would He Fit in the Hall of Fame?

If Jack Morris is elected to the Hall of Fame, he will be among the least impressive members of that body, and he will be far inferior to many pitchers who have not been elected.

The main arguments for Morris, as far as I can tell, are the following:

He was the leader in wins for the 1980s.

He won 254 games.

He won 20 games three times.

He was a great postseason pitcher.

He was a winner.

Each of these arguments, though, fails to actually demonstrate Morris’ Hall of Fame qualifications. More important to the argument is whether or not Morris was effective at doing what a good pitcher does well, and what a great pitcher does very well: preventing runs from scoring.

Morris Was the Leader in Wins for the 1980s

This sounds impressive, but it is troubled by the fact that the 1980s, in particular, were a weak time for starting pitching. It is further weakened by a quick look at what the actual win totals for the 1980s are, and who had them.

Morris                          162

Dave Steib                   140

Bob Welch                    137

Fernando Valenzuela     128

Charlie Hough               128

Notice anything about the other four guys in the top five? No Hall of Famers. 162 wins for a decade is not particularly impressive, even for a decade in which there was a strike season. In the 1970s, 162 wins would have been ninth, right ahead of Vida Blue, who had 155. In the 1990s, it would have been third, despite much more missed time in that decade.

Morris Won 254 Games

He did. And that’s a lot of wins. But lately, having a lot of wins hasn’t exactly meant automatic entry into the Hall of Fame. Remember Tommy John? He spent, oh, 27 seasons playing major league baseball. He had the famous surgery. He won 288 games. 

He just went up for election for his last chance on the ballot, and he came away with 31.7 percent of the vote. Remember Jim Kaat? He won 283 games. He never drew more than 29.6 percent of the vote. Do you think Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Famer?  He’s got 258 wins. 

I hope that everyone who thinks Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer will be there for Jamie Moyer when his time comes.

He Won 20 Games Three Times

Jim Kaat also won 20 games three times. Tommy John did, too. Luis Tiant won 20 games four times. Dave McNally won 20 games four times. Wes Ferrell won 20 games six times.  None of these guys are in the Hall of Fame.

He Was a Great Postseason Pitcher

Who can forget the seventh game of the 1991 World Series, with Morris throwing 10 shutout innings for the win? He certainly was a clutch pitcher, right? That should be taken into account. That’s fine. But shouldn’t it be balanced by his utter failure in the 1992 World Series, when he was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA? 

Generally, there are no great postseason players. There are great postseason moments, and there are players who perform very well at a particular time in the postseason, but for players who have a large amount of postseason experience, their performance generally mirrors their regular season performance. 

For Morris, for example, he had a .577 winning percentage and a 3.90 ERA in the regular season, and a .636 winning percentage and a 3.80 ERA in the postseason. For all intents and purposes, he was no more effective in the postseason than he was all year long.

He Was a Winner

Morris had a winning percentage of .577 over the course of his career.  A team with a .577 winning percentage would win 93 games over the course of a season. During Morris’ career, the teams he played for tended to be very good. 

The average team he played for, weighted by the number of decisions he had in each year, had a .546 winning percentage. Over the course of his career, then, if he had had the same number of decisions each year, playing for the same teams, and had as close a winning percentage to the team as possible, he would have won 241 games. 

He was 13 games better than the teams he played for. 

The Arguments against Jack Morris

Jack Morris would bring the highest era ever into the Hall of Fame. His 3.90 career ERA would rank dead last among Hall of Fame pitchers. The closest anyone else comes to it is Red Ruffing’s 3.80 ERA.

Jack Morris, though, did much of his pitching is a fairly strong offensive era, so his 3.90 ERA, which would have been atrocious in a pitching era, such as the 1960s, is not bad.  The ERA+ statistic, which adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for the park he plays in and the offensive tendencies of each year, finds Morris at 105, which is better than average, since 100 is average. 

Of course, you would expect a Hall of Fame pitcher to be above-average at preventing runs from scoring, and every Hall of Fame pitcher is. In fact, there are only two pitchers who have worse ERA+ numbers than Jack Morris: Rube Marquard, at 103, and Catfish Hunter at 104. Marquard was famous for winning 19 straight games in 1912. 

Marquard never received much attention from the writers voting for the Hall of Fame, maxing out at 13.9 percent in 1955. It took a broad definition of a Hall of Famer by a famously broad-minded Hall of Fame Veteran’s Committee in 1971 to bring him in. He is probably the least-deserving Hall of Fame pitcher. 

Catfish Hunter, for those of you who may not remember him, pitched a perfect game as a young man, and then had the good fortune to pitch for exceptionally talented teams.  Hunter’s teams were very bad his first three years, and his record was not much better. 

However, during the years that followed, he pitched for seven teams that went to the postseason. 

His ERA was good, but it was a time of strong pitching, and his ERA was significantly better than average (ERA+ above 115) only three times in his career. Despite pitching for such good teams, Hunter managed only a .574 winning percentage. His election to the Hall of Fame is baffling.

To sum up thus far: Jack Morris would not be a complete outlier in the Hall of Fame.  He would simply be among the three worst pitchers there.

Do Other Pitchers Like Jack Morris Get Elected?

If Jack Morris belongs in the Hall of Fame, then we would expect to find that pitchers with his level of performance would generally be Hall of Famers. The pitcher with the highest similarity score to Jack Morris is Dennis Martinez. Here are their statistics

                        W-L                 ERA     IP         ERA+  SO       BB

Morris              254-186           3.90     3,824   105      2,478   1,390

Martinez           245-195           3.70     4,000   106      2,149   1,165

Moyer              258-195           4.22     3,908   105      2,342   1,117

Faber               254-213           3.15     4,087   119      1,471   1,213

Kaat                 283-237           3.45     4,530   107      2,461   1,083

John                 288-231           3.34     4,710   110      2,245   1,259

Blyleven           287-250           3.31     4,970   114      3,701   1,322

Tanana             240-236           3.66     4,188   106      2,773   1,255

Pennock           240-162           3.60     3,571   106      1,227   916

I think that the comparisons to Martinez and Moyer are instructive. Martinez pitched from 1976 through 1998, and Morris from 1977 through 1994, so Martinez overlaps Morris’ career completely. Moyer began his career in 1986, so there are nine years of overlap there. 

These are guys with essentially the same career record as Morris, and their ERA+ is nearly the same. 

Martinez drew 3.2 percent of the ballot and dropped off in 2004. I don’t see Moyer drawing much support unless he miraculously manages 42 more wins, but he is every bit the pitcher Morris was. I know some will say that Morris was more dominant at his peak—but when was that? Not once in his career did Morris have an ERA below 3.00. 

He never finished above third in Cy Young voting. He never finished above fifth in ERA. He never led the league in winning percentage. He led the league in wins twice, strikeouts once, innings once, shutouts once. 

Conclusion

Jack Morris does not stand out from Dennis Martinez, Jamie Moyer, or Frank Tanana, and his career is considerably less impressive than that of Jim Kaat, Tommy John, or Bert Blyleven. 

However, several comparable pitchers have gained admittance to the Hall of Fame: Catfish Hunter, Rube Marquard, and Herb Pennock. Morris would not be the worst pitcher in the Hall of Fame, but his career is no better, and considerably worse, than many pitchers who have not been elected.