Quality: The Unmeasurable Factor of CFL Expansion

Recently I took part in a survey about CFL expansion.  Since I've written numerous Bleacher articles about the subject, I was considered to be an "expert", and my opinion was solicited and valued.

One of things I had to explain was the basis for my opinions about why I make the choices I do.

Whether I take part in a survey or write a Bleacher article about expansion, I take into consideration four factors:  market size and composition (population); investors; sports facilities (stadiums); chance of survival.

I usually combine factor one with factor four, and my criteria is, the bigger the better.

Canada's small population as compared to the United States means that the CFL's choices for expansion are limited.  The CFL's existing franchises are based in seven of the nine largest cities in Canada.  Only Ottawa, which is scheduled to return, and Quebec are lacking teams.

So when I was asked if I had to pick one city for CFL expansion, without hesitation I chose Quebec.

Besides having surpassed Winnipeg in 2001 as Canada's seventh largest city, Quebec successfully staged its 400th anniversary in 2008, and more importantly for the CFL it has a thriving football program at Laval University and last year hosted a sold-out Vanier Cup of 18,000.  So for me, the choice of Quebec is a no-brainer.

And my complete choices based on population/survival are Quebec, London, Kitchener, Halifax, Oshawa, Victoria, and Windsor.

I believe the CFL could expand to the first three cities right now and then the next four within twenty years.

The problem is, there are no CFL-size stadiums in these cities or active investors seeking franchises.

But there are ways of climbing up my list and butting into the head of the line, and that is to solve factors two and three.

So I have to also consider small Moncton, which is Canada's 29th largest city and also has the 21st largest growth rate, because they are building a stadium even if it is only half-CFL size.

Moncton has attracted the CFL's attention, and with the promise of doubling the stadium by adding temporary seats, it will host a CFL game featuring the Toronto Argonauts next year.

Such unforeseen tactics made me realize that there may be other factors in determining CFL expansion.  The one that jumped out at me is quality, and there is almost no way of measuring that factor.

By quality, I mean active support/enthusiasm for the CFL.

In the end when I make my choices for expansion, I'm really playing the odds and betting on which city will have the best chance for success, and as I stated above, I go by the rationale, the bigger, the better.

But the quality factor can change everything. 

Quebec may have a population of over 700,000 as opposed to only 126,000 for Moncton, but if there are only 10,000 enthusiastic fans who will buy tickets in Quebec as opposed to 50,000 in Moncton, all my calculations get turned upside down.

There really isn't any way of measuring quality except by taking extended surveys and hoping the responders aren't lying.

Another approach, which I urge the CFL to do, is to play one regular season or exhibition game in these cities each year and see what the response is.

The league might get some idea of the support it has in these cities, and if the response is seen to be overwhelmingly positive, it might attract the attention of investors and garner civic support for a team and a stadium.

Quality itself can be affected by other factors.

Moncton may have 50,000 enthusiastic fans who would buy tickets, but if only 5,000 are employed and can afford to do so, then the ball bounces back to Quebec.

Another factor that can affect quality is the change in the composition of the population.

There may be 50,000 enthusiastic fans right now, but if the fathers sire daughters who grow up preferring figure skating to football, attendance will fall off despite a bigger population.

It's impossible for anyone trying to pick the best places for expansion to consider all the possible factors involved.

Maybe a rich investor has a home in Moncton instead of Quebec.

In the end, I'm probably better playing the best odds I do right now.

But quality—enthusiasm for the CFL—which is almost impossible to accurately measure, is probably the chief factor I have to leave out when I consider CFL expansion.

One indirect measure of enthusiasm for CFL expansion is the number of questions Mark Cohon, the CFL commissioner, gets about it at the CFL's website.

And whenever I write Bleacher articles about it, I usually get 100-300 people who read them.  I hope most of them are in favor of CFL expansion like me.

It's put Moncton on the map for a team and made it a possible Jack-the-giant-killer.  And I hope they prove me wrong and get a team which will be around for the long term.

The CFL needs more enthusiastic fans wherever they come from.  It's the reason that the only Roughriders around today are from Saskatchewan and not Ottawa.