Rethinking The Draft: A Few Draft Prospects With Flaws That Make You Think Twice

The NBA draft is hardly a scientific process so I don’t see much point in adding to the tons of mock drafts already available on the web.

First of all, draft day is way too unpredictable (who knew Ray Allen and Jason Richardson would be traded the same day last year). Second, there’s no reliable way to predict how successful a player will be in the NBA (who knew that Rajon Rondo would be the starter for a championship team when he was drafted).

"I think now the way the draft is, it has become a game of educated guessing about how good a player can be instead of how good a player is," Bilas said. "It used to be how good a player was would determine where they would be drafted and now you have to project a player three or four years into the future. It's very difficult and can determine the success of a franchise."

One thing I think I can say with confidence about this draft is that it’s deceptively deep. Not deep in the sense that it will generate a ton of stars or even a lot of career starters. But it’s full of solid rotation players, the type of guys that are needed to make a deep run in the playoffs. In other words, this is a draft where the rich can get richer. It might just take us five years before we figure it out.

However, I do think that if we take a close look at statistics, historical trends, and actual game footage (gasp!) we can at least identify some potentially fatal flaws in players.

I won’t use the term “busts” because it’s not Michael Olowokandi’s, Kwame Browns’, or Joe Smith’s fault that someone chose them with the first pick overall. Plus, so much of success in pro basketball is about a player’s effort, ability to learn, and fit with their team (see: Bruce Bowen, Monta Ellis, and Chauncey Billups for examples). But there is hope for developing informed opinions about the draft.

Thankfully We Have Statistics

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