Pac-10: An Exhaustive Examination of Expansion Options

The Pac-10 is currently looking for a new commissioner.  Outgoing commissioner Tom Hansen has been a famous football traditionalist, resisting the BCS, conference basketball tournaments, and conference expansion.

Should the new commissioner of the Pac-10 take a more serious look at the revenue generated from expansion, what are the conference's options?

Below is a legitimate comparison of the non-BCS Western teams that come up as candidates for expansion: BYU, Utah, UNLV, UNR, Fresno, SDSU, Hawaii, Boise State, and TCU.

I wanted to look at real numbers for the kinds of things a conference should look for when looking to expand: football success, market, academics—not just the ESPN hype or message board hyperbole.

Also, for good measure I compared the Western schools to the non-BCS Eastern schools often reported as next in line for invitations to the Big East, if and when it expands: East Carolina, Central Florida, Memphis, and Southern Miss.

Finally, we’ll compare some numbers from the Big XII schools that are often mentioned as Pac-10 candidates: Texas A&M, Texas, and Colorado.

I realize that the Pac-10 wants the Texas schools, and I would too, but so did the Big VIII in 1995.  Their original plan was reported to be to only take Texas and A&M, much like the Pac-10 would like to do now.

The Texas government (with pressure from the executive, legislative, and judicial branches) wouldn’t allow only those two to leave the SWC alone in 1995, and I doubt they’ll allow them to leave now. 

The numbers show the strongest candidates to be Texas and A&M.  After that a  Colorado/Utah invitation would arguably be a better fit culturally and would bring in both the Denver and Salt Lake markets.  However, I doubt any Big XII team wants to leave, or if the Pac-10 wants to make invitations only to be rejected.

Outside of those Big XII schools, the numbers below will show that among the national (not just Western) options for non-BCS teams:

BYU and Utah rank first and third for top 25 football finishes;

Rank first and second for football attendance;

Are classified by Carnegie as ‘research schools’ with Utah having ‘very high research activity’;

Bring new viewers within and outside the Pac-10 market;

Have solid athletic budgets (ranked second and sixth);

Have well-rounded athletic programs (with the second and fifth-highest men’s basketball attendance);

And maintain the rivalry pairing the conference is built on.  Short of getting a Big XII team to defect, BYU and Utah are the best options. Have a look at the numbers:

I. Number of Football Seasons Ranked in Top 25

It’s pretty hard to compare teams who play in completely different conferences. How does one guess how well Boise’s 2006 team or BYU’s 1996 team would play if they were in the Pac-10?  You can’t.

I have collected the number of times each program has finished the season nationally ranked in the top 25 of the AP or coaches poll.  By using only national numbers, I think it’s a pretty good gauge of a team’s football reputation (i.e. BYU = pretty good. Nevada schools = nonexistent).

Pac-10

USC: 45

UCLA: 32

UW: 24

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