The Pac-10 is currently looking for a new commissioner. Outgoing commissioner Tom Hansen has been a famous football traditionalist, resisting the BCS, conference basketball tournaments, and conference expansion.
Should the new commissioner of the Pac-10 take a more serious look at the revenue generated from expansion, what are the conference's options?
Below is a legitimate comparison of the non-BCS Western teams that come up as candidates for expansion: BYU, Utah, UNLV, UNR, Fresno, SDSU, Hawaii, Boise State, and TCU.
I wanted to look at real numbers for the kinds of things a conference should look for when looking to expand: football success, market, academics—not just the ESPN hype or message board hyperbole.
Also, for good measure I compared the Western schools to the non-BCS Eastern schools often reported as next in line for invitations to the Big East, if and when it expands: East Carolina, Central Florida, Memphis, and Southern Miss.
Finally, we’ll compare some numbers from the Big XII schools that are often mentioned as Pac-10 candidates: Texas A&M, Texas, and Colorado.
I realize that the Pac-10 wants the Texas schools, and I would too, but so did the Big VIII in 1995. Their original plan was reported to be to only take Texas and A&M, much like the Pac-10 would like to do now.
The Texas government (with pressure from the executive, legislative, and judicial branches) wouldn’t allow only those two to leave the SWC alone in 1995, and I doubt they’ll allow them to leave now.
The numbers show the strongest candidates to be Texas and A&M. After that a Colorado/Utah invitation would arguably be a better fit culturally and would bring in both the Denver and Salt Lake markets. However, I doubt any Big XII team wants to leave, or if the Pac-10 wants to make invitations only to be rejected.
Outside of those Big XII schools, the numbers below will show that among the national (not just Western) options for non-BCS teams:
BYU and Utah rank first and third for top 25 football finishes;
Rank first and second for football attendance;
Are classified by Carnegie as ‘research schools’ with Utah having ‘very high research activity’;
Bring new viewers within and outside the Pac-10 market;
Have solid athletic budgets (ranked second and sixth);
Have well-rounded athletic programs (with the second and fifth-highest men’s basketball attendance);
And maintain the rivalry pairing the conference is built on. Short of getting a Big XII team to defect, BYU and Utah are the best options. Have a look at the numbers:
I. Number of Football Seasons Ranked in Top 25
It’s pretty hard to compare teams who play in completely different conferences. How does one guess how well Boise’s 2006 team or BYU’s 1996 team would play if they were in the Pac-10? You can’t.
I have collected the number of times each program has finished the season nationally ranked in the top 25 of the AP or coaches poll. By using only national numbers, I think it’s a pretty good gauge of a team’s football reputation (i.e. BYU = pretty good. Nevada schools = nonexistent).
Pac-10
USC: 45
UCLA: 32
UW: 24
36 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
James Doker about 1 year ago
Great analysis here. You really did a good job researching the facts and numbers behind each team. A very convincing case is made for Utah/BYU in the event of Pac 10 expansion. I've heard that it's doubtful that they'll even expand, but if they did, those teams make the most sense.
It might be a good idea to clear up what each team's number in the Market Ranking section means. Which market is being ranked for each team (e.g. for BYU and Utah, it's the Salt Lake City market, I assume?), and are the rankings national or what? I was just a little confused.
Also, I like the divisional split, so that key rivals are in opposite divisions.
Any ideas for where a conference championship game might be held? The most geographically central area would probably be San Francisco, presumably Candlestick Park.
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bowlbasaur golden bears about 1 year ago
Pac 10 doesn't want to or need to expand. 9 conf games is great already, much better way to determine conf champ than CCG.
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Justin Goar about 1 year ago
i've said for years the pac 10 needs to absorb byu and utah and call it a day. hopefully a progressive minded commish will take over and this would be another step in the right direction towards a playoff.
unlv and fresno are great 2nd options.
very very in depth, great job!!!
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Brian Hawkins about 1 year ago
One correction I see. UCF has never been in the Top 25 at the end of a season ever in Division 1A. They have finished in the Top 25 at the end of the season 3 times in the Division 1AA poll though. But we all know that Division 1A and 1AA are completely different. This website shows their AA results.
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia/conferenceusa/central_florida/in_the_polls.php
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Pete Sayre about 1 year ago
I noticed some schools had additional markets listed since they are either close or have large alumni populations there. I think it would be worth mentioning that ECU has Raleigh as an additional market (just over an hour driving distance and where's it's largest booster club population resides outside of Greenville).
While it seems eons ago, it might be worth mentioning that in top 25 finishes, ECU did finish #9 in the country in 1991.
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NO Way about 1 year ago
Also, incorrect about UCF Basketball atendance for 2007-08. WHile you report 2.7 (thousand) the actual amount was 4.9 (thousand)
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Brian Hawkins about 1 year ago
Hey "NO". I think this article is using the previous years bball attendance. You are right, UCF had almost 4,900 average attendance this 07-08 school year. But the 2,700 was the 06-07 attendance. Great jump for you guys. So while the #'s are right, they are not current.
I do love how ECU and UCF will go at it all the way across the country in the comment section of a Pac-10 expansion article.
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Ricky Regs about 1 year ago
LOL... funny huh?
I knew the attendance was 06-07... but, this shold have current info IMO.
Also, the info used for TV Markets uses the Population of "Orlando Proper" or the incorporated "City of Orlando" with a population of just over 200,000. MOST Orlando addresses are unincorporated and therefore not listed in the population. If you use the Orlando "Metro-plex" area. (which includes unincorporated areas of Orlando, Kissimmee, UCF Area etc) and has a population of 2,000,000+ which is the #19 TV market.
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Ricky Regs about 1 year ago
According to the Pirate Pete.... ECU should count Raleigh in their "market". If that is the case, UCF shold get Tampa, Daytona, Cocoa Beach, etc. Sorry, Pirate; not today.
1991 also has nothing to do with 2008.
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Pete Sayre about 1 year ago
Ricky,
Let's keep it clean. I didn't make any comments about UCF. I thought it fair to defend what many think of ECU's market being only eastern NC. ECU's TV market truly includes Raleigh and probably Norfolk.
As far as 1991 goes...the stat the article gave about rankings was a historical one...my comment fit. Sometimes history is worth reviewing for whatever it's worth. Would you hire someone without looking back at the the accomplishments they made before coming to you? It's no different if you are thinking about investing in something. Expansion is just that...an investment.
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Brian Wyss about 1 year ago
I love the sensible football talk. Great points on the what seems "off" chance that the Pac-10 expands, though I am all for it.
That being said I do also want to comment to UCF/ECU fans. This is a Pac-10 expansion thread, while you are correct that UCF's top 25 finishes in I-AA shouldn't count and nor should a Raleigh area more then an hour out of Greenville, and nor should nearly 20 years ago top 25 finishes, but ECU does have a decent football history, it is far from a "Historic football school".
Both of you keep doing what you are doing, get to a BYU's level, and it won't be long till you get your shot at the "Big" show. Stay passionate for your teams and get those attendances to be near consistent sellout.
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Brian Hawkins about 1 year ago
Great comments. I agree.
Just to clear things up- I am the Brian who posted about UCF's rankings, and responded to NO's basketball attendance post. The one above me, that I am responding to, is a different Brian. He appears to be a neutral Pac10 fan, and I am an ECU alumni.
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Brian Wyss about 1 year ago
I am actually just a college football fan. I prefer what is best for the kids that play it of course, and I am a C-USA fan at this point in time but I watch every game I can.
I added a picture to differentiate myself from other Brians. Haha.
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CJ Daley about 1 year ago
As a San Diego resident, I would love to see SDSU get in. Simply because it would bring great football to San Diego.
The best additions for the Pac10 would be BYU and Utah. Simply because these two teams already have a BIG game. So some traditions would carry over.
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dave f about 1 year ago
BYU will never join the Pac 10. The conference has no need to add schools only for the sake of expansion. If schools that provide more than what is available now in terms of TV and exposure (read: Texas) happened to fall into their lap, that would be one thing. But dividing the conference pie 12 ways just to add a mediocre market wouldn't make sense.
The growing number of these fan-written stories coming out of Utah is getting to be silly.
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Eric about 1 year ago
Just some corrections...UCF's attendance has climbed to 44k as of last year; Orlando is the #19 TV market; and our athletic budget is now $35 million. Although...this is a PAC 10 article...so there's no relevance to UCF or ECU, here. I do think BYU and UTAH would do well in the PAC 10...and have the fan support to go along!
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C Day about 1 year ago
The future is in Nevada. It is a rapidly growing state even with the recession, and both schools are increasing research activity a a very quick rate. UNLV just needs to get it's stuff together in football and UNLV anf UNR would fit perfectly in the Pac 10. Geographically and culturally it makes sense, and both schools will step up in the next few years to become very attractive options.
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Michael Schlossberg about 1 year ago
I would say either UNLV or Nevada is the most established in both football and basketball... so taking one of them might make sense
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c s about 1 year ago
BOISE STATE PEOPLE!
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elias about 1 year ago
umm, no. you dont have a doctors program, doofus.
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DRC about 1 year ago
"It’s only a matter of how many Doctoral programs a given school offers. Pac-10 schools have more than 20. BYU has less than 20, but it is still considered by Carnegie to be a Research University.”
According to BYU's website, they have 26 doctoral programs. They don't graduate as many students with doctoral degrees as many of the PAC-10 schools do, though.
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Dustin Draper about 1 year ago
Dave
"The growing number of these fan-written stories coming out of Utah is getting to be silly."
Hey man this isn't a fan written story out of Utah it was written by Fox Sports! http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/8291620/Pac-10-and-its-expansion-options#tb
BYU and Utah make the most sense, but I think what should happen is the MWC should add Boise St, Fresno St, and either SMU or Houston. That 12 team conference would match up top to bottom with both the ACC and Big East, and would be deserving of an automatic BCS bid (another BCS bowl game works well with the Cowboys soon to be complete stadium).
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Dustin Draper about 1 year ago
Dave "The growing number of these fan-written stories coming out of Utah is getting to be silly." Hey man this isn't a fan written story out of Utah it was written by Fox Sports! http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/8291620/Pac-10-and-its-expansion-options#tb BYU and Utah make the most sense, but I think what should happen is the MWC should add Boise St, Fresno St, and either SMU or Houston. That 12 team conference would match up top to bottom with both the ACC and Big East, and would be deserving of an automatic BCS bid (another BCS bowl game works well with the Cowboys soon to be complete stadium).
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Jeremy about 1 year ago
Everyone assume BYU and Utah which is a good pick, however the Pac-10 at least in its former regime never would consider BYU, because they are not a research school, unlike Utah. With the new commissioner coming in it would be best for them to choose the schools that will bring in the money which is in football. Both schools are very good in football with both schools having multiple top 10 final rankings and regularly in bowl games and in the top 25 year end polls almost every year.
Rivalry is important, and BYU and Utah is a huge rival and the biggest in the schools mentioned. I know they want Texas but there is no way Texas or Texas A&M would leave, partly would be for travel for the smaller sports which would be huge. The only Texas school that might be considered would be Texas Tech because they are in west Texas.
I could see Fresno and SDSU since they are in California, but the Pac-10 all ready has those markets in hand, well SDSU is more south than LA, but the thing people are missing here is that BYU has a large national following similar to Notre Dame, because of their church affiliation. Similarly can be said to Utah but on a much smaller scale.
The state has a ton of fans and the fact that these are great football and basketball schools.
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Jeremy about 1 year ago
For those Utah schools, if the MWC were to grab Boise State, Houston, and then either Fresno State, Nevada, Hawaii, Tulsa would make good sense for the league to have a championship game and give them a realistic shot at a BCS berth if the Big East or ACC falter
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paul burton about 1 year ago
Research is not the only measure of academia. Utah is not the elite undergraduate school that BYU is. BYU has a much larger student-body and significantly higher average GPA and ACT among its successful applicants than Utah does. It graduates a significantly higher percent of enrollees also. Among universities in the U.S., Utah ranks around 120th, while BYU ranks around 70th (this is among all universities, not just those with major football and basketball programs). The U of U very nearly has an open enrollment opportunity for anyone. I am not advocating against Utah, but pointing out that BYU is not Utah's poor little brother when it comes to academics.
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Jeremy about 1 year ago
True, research is not the end all be all, but when the current Pac-10 is predominately research schools Utah would make more sense in that way. The research thing is what the current leadership has stated why there has been no interest in BYU, but that could and should change if the Pac-10 is considering expansion.
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Mike DiMauro about 1 year ago
Great article!
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Michael Collins about 1 year ago
Great analysis and terrific article, Greg. Thanks for all the research. How would Notre Dame rate?
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Amy Lamare about 1 year ago
Excellent article!
When I think about Pac-10 expansion it is hard for me to think of schools that go any further East than NV, UT and AZ.
UNLV and UNR football are jokes. They can't recruit at the levels the Pac 10 schools do and they don't have the alumni support to endow the programs like schools such as USC do.
BYU and Utah are a reasonable argument from a football program strength standpoint.
SDSU football, other than Marshall Faulk, what have they done? Nothing.
Hawaii could be done, but would they want to join a conference in which they'd be consistently challenge and finish at best in the middle of the pack?
Anyway, just some off the cuff thoughts.
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steven ballard about 1 year ago
Sunday play will prevent BYU from joining or Pac-10 from offering. The research is a cover for other things that make BYU not "fit" within the Pac-10
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Tosten Burks about 1 year ago
"Some colleges are in major metro areas (SDSU) but have less than stellar attendance and probably less than stellar ratings that go with them."
No, not probably, yes. SDSU definitely has less than stellar attendance and definitely less than stellar ratings. Nobody comes or watches the games because we suck. The football games weren't even televised last year other than when they were picked up by national stations.
Oh, and thanks for letting me know that with the third highest athletic budget of all non-BCS teams, the Aztecs still can't do anything. That brightened my day.
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L Nethercott about 1 year ago
The future is in the duo of UNLV and UNR. The football and basketball programs at UNR are becoming increasingly better and basketball at UNLV is back on track. I agree with "C" that UNLV needs to get the football program up to par. Just think of how much faster the UNLV football program could improve by getting added to the PAC-10, by becoming more attractive to players and a coach who want to be a part of that conference.
I think UNLV should build an indoor football stadium. Make the heat a non-factor. Practicing and playing in the heat for the first two few months of the season can't be good for recruiting. I'm sure the idea of the heat is a negative and fans would more likely want to watch a game in the comfort of their beloved air conditioning.
Adding UNLV and UNR would keep the Pacific west states together(California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Nevada.) Think of all the Pac-10 fans who would LOVE to make the trip out to Vegas for a weekend to watch their team win an away game, at least until UNLV improves the program. Hotel rooms will be filled with happy fans from the all over the West coast.
Expanding with UNLV and UNR is a win-win for the Pac-10.
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Matt 12 months ago
Really great analysis.
It seems lately like everyone is talking about expansion from the Big 10 (+1) to the Pac 10. Personally I like the Pac 10 the way it is. I enjoy the Round Robin schedule and I don't really think the Pac 10 has a reason to expand.
That said, to me Utah and BYU make the most sense. The only draw back is that in doing so you only add one new TV market. Plus BYU has that funny Sunday rule.
Looking at population projections, Fresno State might not be a bad choice in another ten or twenty years. Fresno is already nearing the size of the Salt Lake metro area population.
I'm first and foremost a fan of the Big 12. The Pac 10, or any other conference for that matter, could not take Texas or Texas A&M without also taking Texas Tech and Baylor. Simply put, they are a packaged deal. I believe this would present a major obstacle and I doubt the Pac 10 would want to expand to 14 teams.
Besides I doubt the Texas schools would be willing to give up their traditional rivalries with the Oklahoma schools. They have never been happy with loosing Arkansas, and if there were a way to get rid of Baylor and pick up the Razorbacks it would have already been done. The distance thing is another issue, Texas fans like to travel and I doubt many of them even know where Washington State or Oregon State are located.
As for Colorado, the Buffs have been playing a traditional schedule now for what, 100 years? They have traditional rivalries and can at least drive to Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas without much effort. As for Colorado State, they aren't even in the same league as Colorado and the other Pac 10 schools.
Most of the other teams you mentioned don't seem to be on par with the league.
Personally I hope the Pac 10 stays the way it is and continues a traditional schedule. If the Pac 10 is to expand, they need to find schools that add quality to their schedule. There are already enough weak teams in the league without the addition of a New Mexico, UNLV or Colorado State.
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LanceR 9 months ago
glad I read this, good research..I like the Pac 10 the way it is, if they did expand to me the candidates should be BYU and Utah..they seem to be the most deserving from my east coast point of view..though I don't see it happening, and there's a better chance of me fathering Jennifer Love Hewitts baby than either Texas or Texas A&M leaving the big 12 lol
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chad furukawa 9 months ago
Good article! As a Hawaii fan, It would be a wet dream for me if the Pac 10 would add Hawaii to the conference. I heard that while the University of Hawaii meets the academic standards, our sports programs may be a little under par but is fixable. The real killer is the travel costs to Hawaii for the other Pac 10 teams. No surprise here, travel and shipping are the killers for our little rock in the Pacific.
As for our football team, I finally understand why the majority of the nation think were jokes, but I'll save that explanation when someone writes an article about Hawaii football 10 years from now.
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