Georges St-Pierre Vs. Dan Hardy: Will UFC 111 Be UFC 69?

Many MMA fans and writers alike have been subscribing to the idea that, on March 27th at UFC 111, current welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre will emerge victorious holding his belt with relative ease against British challenger and Team Rough House fighter, Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy. 

As common as this conjecture may be, it is not shared by St-Pierre’s head trainer, renowned mixed martial arts coach Greg Jackson, who is more than aware of Hardy’s abilities when matched with determination.

“I do believe it because he has a lot of skills,” Jackson told the Sherdog Radio Network’s “Savage Dog Show” on Wednesday. “He's got really good power. The problem with guys like Dan Hardy is that he's young, he's hungry, he's got very good skills and if he catches you the wrong way, you zig when you should have zagged and that might be it.”

To avoid squandering an opportunity to be the first Brit to win a UFC title, the Team Rough House competitor will have to utilize his powerful counter striking and 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu, knowing GSP’s proficiency in wrestling will force Hardy to fight off his back.

Of course this advice was generated from the safety of my keyboard.  Executing such a plan is easier typed than done when the tenacious St-Pierre, one of the most athletically gifted fighters in MMA, is jack-hammering down elbows and deconstructing the guard with ease.

Hardy will need to maintain his composure and minimize GSP’s ground and pound while squirming, searching for an escape route off his back.  His main objective is to keep the fight standing to increase the chances of planting some counter hooks and leg kicks, break Georges’ confidence with his power, and infiltrate the Canadian’s mental focus.

Imposing game plans and controlling tempos against the current champ is a difficult task but not impossible.  This might be the only time when a fighter might look to mimic Matt Serra instead of BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, or Thiago Alves—that is, Matt Serra circa 2007 at UFC 69.

On that infamous night in Houston, St-Pierre went into his first title defense mentally unprepared giving Serra the opportunity to postpone the Canadian's title reign with a heavy-handed shot that led to a referee stoppage.

GSP was soundly defeated, Dana White wrapped the belt around Serra's waist, and the MMA community was asked to suspend its disbelief while what appeared to be a scene from the Twilight-Zone unfolded.

Will Hardy be able to direct and star in the UFC 69 sequel?  He possesses the power, he has the hunger but GSP has defended his belt three times against opponents ranked significantly higher than the British Bomber.

Anyone familiar with the sport of mixed martial arts has utter these five words—anything can happen in MMA—more than once.

“The Outlaw” is currently riding a seven-fight win streak; four of those victories have been recorded inside the octagon.  During his last performance, the Nottingham native rocked Mike “Quick” Swick multiple times to earn a unanimous decision at UFC 105 in Manchester, England to improve his record to 24-6.

Despite Hardy’s accomplishments and experience, the general consensus dictates a wide gap in probability for an upset victory over GSP.  In Greg Jackson’s eyes, this underdog scenario is exactly what makes the Brit dangerous, just as it did with Matt Serra. 

Jackson reminded Sherdog that he is not too far removed from the days when people thought St-Pierre was “supposed’ to annihilate Serra.

“Remember that Matt Serra was never considered a real threat to Georges,” said Jackson. “Everyone was laughing it off, and then all of a sudden Georges was in a lot of trouble. So if you go into any fight thinking this guy is going to be easy, this guy is going to be a walkover, this isn't a legitimate threat, it puts you in a place mentally where you aren't going to train as hard, you're not going to be as hungry and Hardy is a legitimate serious threat and needs to be treated as such.”

In this day and age, when the MMA world is diluted with anxious fans thirsting for cross-weight divisional super fights between the UFC’s most dominant champs, it is easy for fans to discredit and look past a challenger like Hardy.

The mixed martial arts community will discover on March 27th at UFC 111 if Georges St-Pierre will make the same mistake as well.