London 2010: The Lost 49er "Home" Game

My initial reaction upon reading that the NFL picked the San Francisco 49ers to play the Denver Broncos in London was one of excitement. As a lifelong 49er fan not quite old enough to remember the glory days, I was thrilled to see that San Francisco has earned some moderate level of respect across the League.

However, my initial enthusiasm was soon cooled when I realized that the Niners will be the “home” team in London. And that means one fewer real home game at Candlestick.

Alright, alright. So you’re thinking that it’s just one game. It’s not as if the Broncos have the advantage as a home team either. No big deal right?

Wrong.

The 49ers were really good at home this past season. They earned their eight wins largely on the strength of a 6-2 home record. While only one of those wins came against a playoff bound team, it is undeniable that Candlestick is a tough place for a visiting team to win.

Conversely, San Francisco was terrible on the road. The Niners’ only road wins came at Arizona and at St. Louis. The team’s inability to find any lasting success away from the comforts of home wound up being the difference between first and second place in the NFC West.

It stands to reason then that 49ers’ best shot at finally making their way back into the playoffs will likely come by the continual domination of opponents at home and eking out a couple more wins on the road.

San Francisco will have a legitimate shot at winning the West in 2010. Its young players who have notched a 15-17 record over the last two years will have another year of experience. Plus two first round draft picks will allow the Niners to add a couple more key pieces to the puzzle. This team should be ready to take the next step in 2010.

That being said, the 49ers are probably still a couple of years away from being the team to beat in their division. If Kurt Warner ends up returning, the Cardinals will once again have the inside track to the crown in the West. And an improved San Francisco may still not have the firepower to reach the postseason in a strong NFC.

But with a little luck, the 49ers could pass Arizona on the outside and make the playoffs (where anything can happen, as the Cardinals themselves proved last year).
Unfortunately, the first stroke of fortune did not favor the Niners. Instead of getting Denver at home, where the Niners would most likely have an advantage, they will now have to play on a neutral field. And in a contest between two teams that are evenly matched, anything can happen.

If the rest of San Francisco’s schedule looked easy, particularly on the road, this might not matter so much. Unfortunately, outside of the division, the Niners face a highly challenging slate of opponents on the road. With the exception of Kansas City, every non-divisional road opponent that the Niners face next season went 8-8 or better in 2009.

That does not bode well for a team that struggles mightily when facing hostile crowds.

As it seems unlikely that the Niners will blow away the competition next year, this team will most likely be in or out of the playoffs by one game (barring a disastrous regression that I do not even want to consider). And if they miss the postseason by one game that ends up being a “home” loss in London, it won’t be worth all of the publicity that the international stage affords.

Hopefully, San Francisco wins, rendering all of my worries moot. We’ll just have to wait until Halloween to find out.