Kouzmanoff for Hairston, Cunningham a Great Trade for the Padres

This article originally appeared on Friar Forecast.

For more than a year, I have pleaded—some may call it whining—for the Padres to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff. As Ben posted earlier, the Padres have finally done so. In return for Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard, the Padres will receive outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. This is a great trade for the Padres.

First, let's look at what the Padres are giving up.

The A's are acquiring Kouzmanoff’s three arbitration seasons. Kouz has been remarkably consistent as a Padre, posting WARs of 2.7, 2.8, and 2.7.  Both with the glove and the bat, Kouz is average for his position. At 28 years old, the A’s can probably expect Kouzmanoff to continue to post WARs between 2.5 and 3.0 for the next three seasons.

Using a dollar-per-win value of $4 million—and the standard 40 percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent expected arbitration award—Kouzmanoff is expected to get paid between $21 million and $25 million while producing between $31 million and $37 million worth of value. That’s $10 million to $12 million of surplus value during the three years—not including any free agent compensation the A’s may eventually receive.

Eric Sogard is a soon-to-be 24-year-old second baseman who walks a lot, but like most second basemen, he does not have much power.  John Sickels rates Sogard as the Padres' 20th-best prospect and gives him a C+ grade, writing: “Gets on base, not punchless, defense is so-so, but I like the bat enough to keep give him this grade.”

According to Victor Wang’s research on prospect value, a C hitter older than 23 is expected to provide $500,000 of surplus value. In total, the Padres are surrendering between $10 million and $13 million of value.

So what are the Padres getting in return?

The Padres will control Hairston for his final two years of arbitration. The projection systems peg Hairston as an average outfielder with the bat. Overall for his career, Hairston has been an average, albeit versatile, fielder. His biggest problem has been staying in the lineup. He has never played more than 116 games in any season.

The past three years, Hairston has been a 1.8, 1.8, and 1.4 WAR player.  He might be slightly better than that, but for the sake of being conservative, let's say he will be between a 1.5 and 2.0 WAR player during the next two seasons. In a vacuum, that equates to $2.5 milllion to $3.5 million in surplus value.

Sickels rated Aaron Cunningham the A’s third-best prospect entering the 2009 season. (Because of a brief appearance in the majors this season, he was ineligible for this year’s list.) Sickels gave Cunningham a B grade, writing: “A solid all-around player. Doesn’t have the ceiling of some of these other guys, but a surer bet to reach his.”  Baseball America rated Cunningham baseball’s 55th-best prospect entering last season.

According to Wang’s research, a hitter ranked between 51 and 75 on Baseball America’s rankings is worth $14.2 million. In total, the Padres are receiving about $17 million of value in return for $10 million to $13 million of value.

However, things get even better. The Padres traded from an area of surplus for talent in an area of need.

With Chase Headley on the roster, the Padres had two third basemen, but were forcing one (Headley) to masquerade as a left fielder.  Not surprisingly, Headley’s fielding was a major liability and zapped much of his value. In the minors, Headley was considered an average fielding third baseman, and in the majors, Headley has shown to be no worse than an average hitter. In replacing Kouz with Headley at third, the Padres essentially break even.

Replacing Headley with Hairston in the outfield, however, is an upgrade. Hairston provides similar value with the bat, but is a much better (think 15 to 20 runs better) fielder than Headley, and given his ability to play CF, more versatile.

Kouz for Hairston alone, while not necessarily a great deal from a traditional surplus value calculation perspective, would probably have been a break-even proposition for the Padres because of their surplus of third basemen. Also adding a solid prospect like Cunningham ensures that the team received more than fair compensation for Kouzmanoff, and  that makes this deal a serious win for the Padres.