Can The Cards Upset The New Orleans Saints? Here's The Breakdown!

Arizona @ New Orleans -7.0 Ov Un 57.5

Kurt Warner is on his last leg and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finally retires. Drew Brees was spoken of as the best QB in the NFL for most of the season. We know both these guys can throw the ball down the field and have the ability to make those little dumpers in the flats and for the screen plays slants and quick outs.

Injuries:

New Orleans, having had the extra weeks rest, is fully healthy.  Most players that were injured are listed as probable and practiced, aside from CB Malcolm Jenkins and WR Lance Moore. One key player who is returning for NO is RB Pierre Thomas, who has breakaway speed from the backfield.

Arizona played a crazy shootout with Green Bay and won in OT while missing star receiver Anquan Boldin (Ankle) who did practice but was limited. Also limited in practice: DE Calais Campbell (Thumb) LB Will Davis (Knee) LB Gerald Hayes (Ankle) P Ben Graham (Groin) CB Bryant McFadden (Chest). All others had full participation.

Offense:

Though NO only scored an average of 11 points over the last three games, this offense is one of the best in the NFL and finished 1^st overall in points averaging 31.9 and in yards combined per game at 403.8 they finished 4^th in pass yards 272.2 and 6^th in rushing yards with 131.6.

Arizona finished 11^th in points averaging more than a TD less than NO with 23.4, 14^th in total yards 344.4, 12^th passing 251 and 28^th overall rushing the ball 93.4 yards per game.

Defence:

New Orleans 20^th Pts Allowed 21.3/ 25^th Total Yards 357.8 26^th/ Pass Yards 235.6 /21^st Rushing 122.2.

Arizona 15th Pts Allowed 20.3/20th Total Yards 346.4/ 23^rd Pass Yards 233.7/ 17^th Rushing 112.8.

New Orleans

As with any offence in the NFL it’s all due to the play of the O-line.  This team only allowed 20 sacks on the year.  Although AZ’s D got to the QB 43 times and got to the sack susceptible Aaron Rogers five times, they should have a little more difficulty getting to Brees who doesn’t hold on to the ball very long.  The running game of New Orleans should be more effective than that of the Packers, which should keep AZ’s defence off balance.

Drew Brees had a 70.6 completion percentage and a 109.6 quarterback rating while throwing 34 TD’s and only 11 interceptions. He obviously throws the ball with great accuracy and velocity and averaged 8.5 yards/per attempt, while carving defences for 4,388 total yards.

New Orleans TE Jeremy Shockey should be one of the big factors for the Saints in this game, especially if they can establish the run with the trio of dangerous running backs Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush.  Meanwhile, the LB’s of AZ who play a 3-4 defence will have to stuff the gaps which will leave holes in the short field for Shockey who can slip off the line.

WR Marques Colston, 6’4”, should be matched up against 6’0” CB Bryant McFadden (zero interceptions, zero forced fumbles) with help from 6’0” FS Antrel Rolle (four interceptions, one forced fumble). The height mismatch here and the speed of Colston, who led the Saints with 70 catches, favours New Orleans and as both these guys were somewhat exploited by Green Bay passing game, I don’t see why the same won’t happen in this game.

The shorter Devery Henderson should be matched up against Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (six interceptions and three forced fumbles) with help from Adrian Wilson (five interceptions and one forced fumble) and will have to use his speed and elusiveness to get open if he expects to add to his 51 catches on the season.

The running game of New Orleans ranked 6^th overall and averaged 131.6 yards per game on the ground. Mike Bell ran the ball very well early but with the return of Pierre Thomas, who is a crafty runner with breakaway speed compared to Mike Bell’s power style of running, it could be another difference maker. Mix in Reggie Bush and this running game could be very good against AZ who gave up 112.8 yards per game on the ground.

Arizona

The offensive line of the Cards only allowed 26 sacks during the regular season and only one in their playoff game against the Packers, while the Saints got to the opposing QB 35 times. Jeremy Bridges will have to deal with Will Smith on the right side who had 13 sacks to lead New Orleans.    

Kurt Warner had a 66.1 completion percentage and a 93.2 QB rating in the regular season while throwing for 3,753 yards with 26 TD’s and 14 interceptions.  The older he gets, the less mobile he becomes; however hey may have proved last week that he could have one last hurrah.

Arizona has many three wide sets with Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston who are all dangerous.

The return of Anquan Boldin may be the extra piece to the puzzle that Arizona will need to get by the Saints as he demands respect and has all the tools to be the most dangerous player on the field for the Cards. Boldin will have to deal with Jabari Greer (two interceptions, zero forced fumbles), Roman Harper (zero interceptions and two forced fumbles).

Larry Fitzgerald had 97 receptions in the regular season for 1,092 yards and 13 touchdowns and he caught six balls last week for 82 yards and two TD’s. He will be faced with the task of beating Tracy Porter (four interceptions and two forced fumbles) and the veteran FS Darren Sharper, who led the Saints with nine interceptions and who will be ball hawking against this pass-happy offence of the Arizona Cardinals.

Steve Breaston could be another factor for the Cards as they have their two big receivers going in this game and may find himself open or in a mismatch for New Orleans. Breaston has speed and the ability to break big plays.

The running game of the Cards has improved with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, but won’t be/shouldn’t be a huge factor. Though Well possesses breakaway speed.

With the over-under in this game set at 57.5 total points, the expectation of a shoot out seems imminent, but the defensive coordinator of the Cards certainly doesn’t want a shootout again.  New Orleans, though the numbers don’t back it up, played pretty good defence for a good part of the season and was one of the improvements on this team.

I would buy a half point with New Orleans down to 6.5 and take them to cover.

A worthwhile six point teaser may be worth a look at as well taking New Orleans down to one and the over-under up to 63.5 and bet the under.

New Orleans to cover -6.5

Teaser New Orleans -1 and under 63.5

New Orleans wins 31-24