Cowboys-Vikings Divisional Round: Can Dallas Continue Late Season Run?
On Sunday, the playoffs continue for the Dallas Cowboys as they head to Minnesota to face the Vikings.
The Vikings stumbled into the end of the season before a tune-up game against the New York Giants to finish their season and, after a week of rest, they're ready to return to the field.
The Vikings have a solid running game of which the Cowboys need to be wary. Adrian Peterson (314 attempts, 1383 yards, and 18 TD) hasn't had the type of season he had in 2007, but he is still a very dangerous threat to take it to the house on any carry.
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The Vikings will have to mix up where and how they run, however, as the Cowboys pride themselves on stopping the run and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. They need to run draws and pitches as well as get backup Chester Taylor involved.
Brett Favre is having a great season. His interceptions are down and his passing yards and TDs are on par with the rest of his career. Even at the end of the season when the Vikings were struggling, Favre stayed consistent.
However, this weekend will be a test for Favre. The Cowboys love to dial up blitzes and get pressure and Favre knows it; he'll have a lot of hot routes called for Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice to keep the pressure off him.
Harvin is not going to get much in the return game, so expect the Vikings to try an end around or maybe even something in the wildcat to get Harvin the ball. Bernard Berrian is also a threat; he doesn't have great speed, but is an accomplished route runner and Favre will be looking at him on third downs.
The Vikings' defense will be forced to stop Tony Romo and Felix Jones.
Their front seven is good at stopping the run, but the Cowboys run a lot of draws, freezing the linebackers. Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson will have to recognize these plays quickly so they can get to the holes. If they let Jones beat them to the hole, he could be gone quick.
They also have to get pressure on Romo. This is where Jared Allen and his 14.5 sacks come in. Ray Edwards will also be lurking around in the pocket trying to take down Romo, but they have to get there, because the rest of the front seven aren't sack threats (only one other person on the team has more than five sacks).
First and foremost, the secondary has to control Miles Austin. If he gets to roam the field, the Vikings have no chance of forcing the Cowboys to punt. Last week the Eagles shifted their secondary towards Austin, leaving Roy Williams one-on-one, but he came up big in the first half, so the Vikings have to find a new plan.
The Cowboys might also go after Antoine Winfield, as his foot injury has limited him recently and he's been picked on by other teams.
The Vikings' secondary needs to take advantage if Romo makes mistakes; they don't get a lot of picks in their secondary, as evidenced by the fact that the starters have just six on the season combined (Mike Jenkins has six by himself, including the playoffs).
The Cowboys head to Minnesota to keep their strong run going, and will have to hit the ground running in this game.
Tony Romo and the offense need to get off to a fast start and take the crowd out of the game. If the crowd gets into the game, it'll make it harder for the line to get off the ball quickly and you'll see Flozell Adams called for at least two false starts.
Look for Romo to test Vikings corner Antoine Winfield early to see if he's healthy. If Miles Austin is lined up against him, they'll take a shot at him deep.
Roy Williams will be a huge factor early, just like last week. Romo will throw him a few balls early, especially if he's on the run and needs to get rid of the ball. Williams needs to take advantage to loosen the coverage on the other receivers.
Expect Austin and Jason Witten to be targeted as usual, and the Cowboys will keep running their bubble screens to Austin and Kevin Ogletree to get them open in space.
The Cowboys' running game will have to be patient with Kevin and Pat Williams on the inside for the Vikings. Marion Barber will start if he's healthy, but that's yet to be determined.
Coach Wade Phillips seems encouraged, but won't make any promises. Phillips said, "We'll see what he does (Friday), but it's looking better and better for him to play."
If Barber can't start, then Felix Jones will, and Tashard Choice will get the bulk of the backup carries. The Cowboys will still run a lot of draws to Barber and Choice and will run misdirections and pitches with Jones.
The Cowboys' defense has a tall order ahead of them. First and foremost, they have to stop the run. Jay Ratliff will be the biggest key; Ratliff has to get to Peterson before he gains momentum, and the linebackers need to gang tackle. If they can stop Peterson and Taylor and force the Vikings into 3rd-and-long situations, then they can tee off on Favre.
Anthony Spencer will want to continue his hot streak and DeMarcus Ware will want to get a hit on Favre, but they can't be too jumpy as Favre is good at hard counts and will try to get the Cowboys to jump. The Cowboys will run a lot of stunts to the middle so Favre can't step up, and expect Keith Brooking to hit the middle hard as always when blitzing.
The secondary will have to keep Harvin in front of them like they did DeSean Jackson. Terence Newman has been playing great under the radar, while Mike Jenkins gets all the attention for his shutdown abilities.
The biggest matchup in the passing game is Bobby Carpenter against Visanthe Shiancoe. Favre has given Shiancoe the season of his career and, if Carpenter can't stay with him and make the tackle after the catch, Shiancoe could have another big day.
This game will be a defensive battle, even though both teams have good offenses. Both the Vikings and Cowboys will try to get their run established throughout the first half to keep the defenses honest, but eventually the game will be put in the hands of Romo and Favre.
If the game unfolds this way, I expect the Cowboys to win. Romo will continue to take what Minnesota gives him while Favre will try to be the hero once again, and I expect him to make a mistake along the line somewhere late in the game.
Cowboys 20-17.

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