The Washington Nationals Need to Do Better Than Doug Davis

A few days ago, free agent pitcher Doug Davis said he’d be happy to pitch for the Washington Nationals next season. The Nationals responded by saying they had no real interest in the former Diamondback.

This morning, mlbtraderumors.com is reporting that the Nationals are one of four teams with an active interest in the 33-year-old lefthander.

I understand Davis’ desire to find a job.

As each day drops off the calendar, he is losing tens of thousands of dollars in contract value. Pretty soon, he’s going to have to take what’s offered so he can be sure of a starting job somewhere.

But I’m not sure why the Nationals would have any real interest in Davis.

Jason Marquis, John Lannan and Scott Olsen (if healthy) are locks for the first three spots in the Nationals’ rotation. Three other pitchers, Ross Detwiler, Craig Stammen and J.D. Martin, were all good enough last season to at least be given the opportunity to earn a starting spot in 2010.

In five September starts, Detwiler was 1-1 with a 1.90 ERA with a .220/.319/.268 (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percent against) stat line. Martin was 3-1 in September with a 4.01 ERA and a .265/.337/.449 line. And before his elbow began to hurt him in July, Stammen was 3-4, 3.11, .251/.337/.449.

Since 2004, Davis has been a consistently average pitcher, averaging more than 200 innings per year. His average record over that span is 11-12 with a 4.21 ERA. He has allowed 9.5 hits per nine-innings and 4.3 walks.

When compared with Detwiler, Stammen and Martin, Davis’ .271 batting average-against and his .349 on base percent-against are worst among the group while his .418 slugging percent-against was just third best.

Last season, Davis led the National League in starts with 34. He won just nine of those starts playing for a team whose offense scored just 20 more runs than the Nationals over the course of a 162 game season. The Diamondbacks’ batting average was five points lower and their on-base percent was 13 points lower. Only their slugging percent was higher.

So if Davis was a nine game-winner for Arizona last season, he would have likely been a nine-game winner for Washington. How would nine games help the Nationals in 2010?

Had Martin started the same number of games, he would have had a record of 11-8.

Davis made almost $9 million with Arizona last year and I doubt he’ll be signing for any less than $3-4 million this season. If the Nationals sign Davis they won’t have enough left in the bank to bring in a significant upgrade at second base, someone like Orlando Hudson.  

Look, I’m not suggesting that Detwiler, Martin and Stammen will have success in the Nationals’ rotation in 2010. But one of them surely will, and two of them certainly could.

Will the team be better with Doug Davis in the rotation and Cristian Guzman at second, or would having Orlando Hudson or Adam Kennedy at second with J.D. Martin and Craig Stammen filling out the back of the rotation be the way to go?

I don’t know. But I do know that bringing in a cadre of .500 pitchers will do nothing besides building a barrier between the team and another 100 loss season.

I think Nationals’ fans deserve more.

Young back-of-the-rotation starters like Detwiler, Martin and Stammen won’t lose the team any more games that Davis and just might put them in a position to succeed.

And I’m not talking “75 wins” succeed. I’m talking a semi-magical season where the Nationals could be on the periphery of contention.

I am not saying they will contend with Detwiler and company in the rotation, but I can say with certainty that a rotation full of Doug Davis’ will make an 80 win season a dream come true.

I say it’s time to dream bigger than that.