Virginia Tech's Four-Part Plan to Make the NCAA Tournament

After a loss to North Carolina Sunday, the Hokie basketball team currently sits at 12-2 overall and 0-1 in the ACC.

Sixteen games remain on the schedule, 15 of which are against ACC teams.

If the Hokies want to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in three years, there's a fairly simple plan to follow.

1. Win at home

The Hokies have nine home games left in the 2009-2010 season. The opponents, in order, are Miami, NC Central, Boston College, North Carolina, Clemson, Virginia, Wake Forest, Maryland, and NC State.

If Tech wins all nine of those games, which I doubt, the Hokies could do no worse than 21-9 and 8-8 in the ACC. Tech can't afford too many losses, but going 8-1 or 7-2 against this bunch wouldn't be bad.

As coach Seth Greenberg says, you have to stay on the plus side of your record, meaning hold serve in your home games. Lose more than three games at home, and the Hokies will have to steal some tough road victories.

Expected Wins: NC Central, Boston College, Virginia, NC State

Either Way: Miami, North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Maryland

2. Beat the teams you are supposed to beat on the road

Conversely, the Hokies have seven road games remaining, all against ACC opponents. The schedule, in order, is Florida State, Virginia, Miami, NC State, Duke, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. If the Hokies are a successful ACC team, and I think they are, they should aim for a .500 record on the road.

Since they already lost one road game to North Carolina, the Hokies need four wins out of this group. The only problem is that one or two of those four wins probably would have to be an upset.

Expected Wins: Virginia, NC State

Either Way: Florida State, Miami, Boston College

Tough to Beat: Duke, Georgia Tech

3. Steal one or two road games

Right now, if the Hokies win the games they are expected to win, they would have five wins in the ACC. That's not good enough to even get into the NIT at this point. Therefore, the Hokies will more than likely need to steal one or two road games from a higher-ranked team.

The three road games that are most likely to go in Tech's favor are Florida State, Miami, and Boston College. Florida State sits at the end of this brutal opening week for Tech, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies come out flat and FSU runs away with the game.

That means the Hokies would need to beat Miami and/or Boston College, both of which are winnable games against similar competition.

4. Win one or two ACC tournament games

If the Hokies finish their final 16 games with a .500 record, they would be 20-10 overall and 7-9 in the ACC. That record would place them squarely on the bubble and right in the middle of the pack in the ACC.

To jump into the tournament, the Hokies would need to win their first round ACC game, most likely as the sixth or seventh seed. Once they get past the first round, Tech would be in a similar position of probably having to knock off the second or third seed to assure themselves of a spot in the Big Dance.

Otherwise, the Hokies could find themselves back in the NIT for the third consecutive year, wondering what could have been.

So, there you go. Pretty simple, right? Well, it's much easier said than done. The first step to March Madness starts tomorrow night in Cassell against a 15-1 Miami team that is coming off a close win against Wake Forest and is ranked 23rd in the AP poll.

The Hokies need this game to avoid an 0-2 start in conference, especially with 25th-ranked Florida State awaiting the Hokies in Tallahassee on Saturday.