Chicago Cubs' Offseason: New Ownership, Same Old Story

The Chicago Cubs made a splash in the MLB free agent pool on New Year’s Eve, signing former Rangers outfielder Marlon Byrd to a 3-year deal. Okay, it wasn’t a “splash” per se, perhaps more of a ripple because, well, it’s Marlon Byrd.

Byrd will be 32 in August and has a career .340 OBP to go along with a .422 SLG and 99 OPS+ (that’s OPS adjusted for league and park factors), so while he will most likely never be atrocious at the plate, he is equally unlikely to be a significant difference-maker in the World Series hopes of the Cubs.

Byrd is expected to be the everyday centerfielder for the Cubs in 2010 and beyond, with Kosuke Fukudome shifting over to right. Naturally, much of the talk here in Chicago has shifted to the supposed defensive prowess of Byrd in CF, and many Cubs fans are wondering what exactly they will be seeing with Byrd taking over the everyday duties at the position.

Statistically speaking (I do not recall ever seeing Marlon Byrd play CF anywhere ever, a sentiment I surmise mirrors that of most Cubs fans, so we will have to rely on those scary numbers with funny names), Byrd is slightly below average in CF.

He has been above replacement-level at the position for most of his career, posting a fielding runs above replacement (FRAR) of 34 throughout his career, however he has been decidedly below average at the MLB level when measured against his counterparts, posting a career -25 fielding runs above average (FRAA) in CF throughout his career. In fact, Byrd has climbed out of the below-average CF ranks (read: non-negative FRAA) only three times in his career: 2003 (0 FRAA), 2005 (0) and 2008 (2).

What does all this mean? Marlon Byrd is “a guy,” plain and simple. Offensively, Byrd is a solid addition to the Cubs roster, and while he certainly isn’t decidedly bad in all things baseball, he isn’t decidedly great , either. He more than likely isn’t the difference in a team winning the World Series or even making the postseason, nor is he a black-mark on a roster.

One positive note for Cubs fans should be that three of Byrd’s four 100 or better OPS+ seasons have come in the last three seasons at Texas, and coming to the Cubs will re-unite him with his hitting instructor during those three seasons: Rudy Jaramillo. (remember: OPS+ is adjusted for league and park factors)

Now, all this talk about the Cubs’ most recent signing has been to set the table for a larger point, the point, if you will: the terms of Marlon Byrd’s contract. Byrd signed a three-year deal with the Cubs worth $15 million, and his salary will increase from $3 million in 2010 to $5.5 million 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012. Now, the overall money Byrd will be receiving is fine. According to FanGraphs.com , Byrd’s wins above replacement (WAR) should have netted him over $36 million in the last three seasons.

However, thanks to GM Jim Hendry, the Cubs have yet another back-loaded contract to be paid to a player on the wrong side of 30, joining the ranks of Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Kosuke Fukudome in terms of back-loaded atrocities of contracts.

Also, it has come out over the last day or so that the Cubs once again got into a bidding war against themselves for Byrd, as reportedly no one was prepared to offer Byrd a three-year deal. This type of move is eerily similar to the signing of Milton Bradley by the Cubs just one year ago. Bradly got a three-year deal from Hendry then, but it became apparent later that the Cubs had vastly outbid all of Bradley’s other suitors both in terms of contract length and salary, passing up other viable options such as Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn along the way.

Now, Hendry was able to escape the Bradley Situation with minimal fuss, but the “no harm, no foul” rule does not apply in this case, especially because Hendry was forced to tie up similar money for a longer period of time in trading Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva (oh yes, I almost completely forgot: enjoy him until 2012, Cubs fans).

Let me set something straight. I don’t think Marlon Byrd is a bad signing for the Chicago Cubs. He is, in fact, a solid signing for the ball club, however the specifics of the contract seem to indicate that Jim Hendry has not been swayed by the Ricketts’ preaching of fiscal responsibility and promotion from within. Instead, he is up to his old tricks again (back-loading contracts and tying up payroll for longer than necessary), albeit on a slightly smaller scale.

With a new year upon us and new ownership already in place for some time, many Cubs fans are hoping for better things from the organization not only in 2010, but for years to come.

However if this kind of irresponsible and impetuous structuring of contracts and payroll can still be expected from Hendry, one of the biggest impediments to glory the Cubs have may still have a job and may still be signing personnel. The year and decade are as fresh as can be, but the Hendry-led Cubs organization is not out to a gleaming start.

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