Free NBA Pick: Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz Odds: January 11th 2010

Free NBA Pick: Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz o192.0 (-110 odds)
Mon January 11th 2010 9:05p
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The Miami Heat and the Utah Jazz combined for only 150 points in an 80-70 Heat win in Miami in December, but we are looking for this rematch to be played at a totally different pace.

The Jazz play at a much faster pace when they play at home, feeding off of what is usually a frenzied crowd. Utah is averaging a whopping 104.0 points per game at home while shooting a sensational 50.7 percent from the floor. At the same time, because of that frenetic pace, they are also allowing an average of 97.2 points here, and that combined average of 201.7 is nearly 10 points higher than this posted total.

The Utah offense is certainly in good current form, as they are coming off of a 111-93 road upset of the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. The Jazz also put up 114 points the last time they played here at home last Wednesday.

The Heat are also playing relatively high scoring games on the road this season, but it is for the wrong reason, as their defense has been quite generous away from home, surrendering 100.6 points per game. Combine that with the 97.9 points they are averaging offensively away from home, and Miami road games are producing 198.5 points, more than six points higher than this posted total.

So why is this posted total as low as it is? Well, the Heat do have a tendency to have nights where they cannot shoot the ball in the ocean, and one such occasion came yesterday in a 94-84 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Still, they do usually rebound off of poor shooting games like that, as only twice this season has Miami been held to under 90 points in back-to-back games.

Finally, it appears that playing on consecutive nights usually has an adverse effect on the Heat defense, as they are allowing 102.5 points per game when playing with no rest this season. Thus, we would not be shocked if Utah puts up around 110 tonight, virtually assuring that this game goes Over.

NBA Free Pick: Heat, Jazz Over 192 (-110)