College Basketball: Bradley vs. Northern Iowa Odds & Pick: January 12th 2010

Bradley vs. Northern Iowa
Free Pick: Bradley +13.5 -110 odds
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I thought the value was lost on Northern Iowa long ago yet the Panthers just keep on winning and covering. They are going for their 13th consecutive win tonight and seven of their last nine games have been won by double-digits. It doesn’t look as though Bradley will provide much of a challenge at first glance but there are some factors that put us on the Braves and a lot of those are going the contrarian way. Northern Iowa has allowed fewer than 50 points in three of its last four games as the defense has been the cornerstone during this recent run. For the season the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 41.2 percent from the floor but overall, they are just +3.5 percent in shooting variance which is definitely a positive but it is far from overwhelming. On the other side, Bradley has been struggling on the defensive end, allowing as least 81 points in four straight games but it is more of a tempo issue than anything else. The Braves are allowing 43.8 percent shooting from the floor on the season which is far from horrible. Bradley comes into this game with a record of 7-8 and a lot of that is due to the schedule it has played as it has faced the 40th toughest slate in the nation. The Braves biggest win of the season came against Illinois who is 11-5 overall and 3-0 in the Big Ten. For the Braves to hand a solid team from that conference a loss is impressive and it shows they are capable of winning big games so getting a line this big is a big benefit. Even with the tougher schedule played, Bradley has a 1.08 assist/turnover ratio compared to 1.04 for the Panthers and that does say a lot. The Braves also fall into a very solid contrarian situation as well. Play against double-digit favorites that have won eight or more consecutive games and possess a winning percentage greater than .800, playing a team with a losing record but with a winning percentage greater than .400. This situation is 47-10 ATS (82.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Including a perfect 4-0 ATS record this season. Northern Iowa has covered nine straight games and that alone is worth the value of the line tonight especially knowing that the Panthers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 13 or more points. 3* Bradley Braves