Reds Slip in and Sign Aroldis Chapman

Both ESPN.com and SI.com have reported that the Reds, of all teams, have reached an agreement with Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman on a long-term $30 million contract.  John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests that the deal is likely a five year deal with $25 million guaranteed with a player option for a sixth year at $5 million, which is more or less the same as $30 million guaranteed.

That’s an awful lot of money to throw at a player who has never pitched professionally in the U.S. or in Japan.  I’m sure every one has heard by now that Chapman is a left-handed pitcher who will be 22 years old in 2010 and has a fastball clocked as high as 102 mph (he hit 98 mph in his recent workouts for major league teams).

I had heard little about the Reds being one of the teams hot on Chapman’s heals, with the Red Sox’ and Marlins’ interest getting most of the press until the Blue Jays were reported to have offered him $23 million a few days ago.  If Chapman is really a “can’t miss” pitching prospect like Steven Strasburg, I wonder why, other than the Red Sox, none of MLB’s ten richest teams was reported to have made much of a run at him.

Here are Chapman’s career numbers in four seasons in the Cuban National Series, Cuba’s top league (the National Series is made up of 16 teams, one for each of Cuba’s provinces and two teams in Havana; they play a 90 game regular season each winter, with the top eight teams then going on to play-off series) are as follows: 24-21 record, 3.72 ERA, 210 walks and 379 Ks in 341.2 innings pitched.  These are certainly impressive numbers for a player his age, in a league that probably ranks with Korea’s KBO, as the world’s best league(s) after MLB and Japan’s NPB.  However, the walks number suggests he’s still got a long way to go before he has major league control.

Given his age, stuff and past experience playing in Cuba and internationally, I expect that the Reds will treat him like a first half of the first round pick out of college, starting his American professional career in a full-season A league or in an A+ league.  I would expect that with his stuff, he’ll move up to AA ball quickly (maybe as soon before the end of 2010), at which point we’ll find out how long it takes him to develop the control necessary to dominate at the AA and AAA levels.

I thought the $15.1 million contract the Nationals gave Strasburg was just about right, and, of course, as an undrafted player who could negotiate with all 30 teams, you had to figure that Chapman would get more than Strasburg.  In my mind, as much as $20 million might have been about right.  $30 million is an awful lot to commit to an amateur pitcher who could blow his arm out long before he reaches the major leagues.

All that being said, I hope that Chapman turns out to be a success.  It sure would be nice to see something go right for the Reds, who’ve been also-rans pretty much since their last World Series appearance (and win) in 1990, now nearly a generation ago.