NBA 2007-08 Preview: Southwest Division

1) Dallas Mavericks

Despite last season’s first-round failure, the Mavs remain an exceptional regular season team.

In fact, from a talent standpoint, they field one of the deepest offenses in the league, and have steadily improved their defense under Avery Johnson’s tutelage.

The only thing keeping the Mavs down is their collective penchant for wilting under adversity.

Dirk Nowitzki’s midrange jump shot is the purest in the league. Josh Howard is an athletic two-way player who’s only improving. Jason Terry is an unstoppable scorer in screen/roll situations. Devin Harris is lithe, quick, and able to jet past any guard to the hoop.

Too bad they all melt in the clutch.

And Howard, Trent Hassell, Devean George, and DeSagana Diop are the only above-average defenders on the squad.

If, and when, their hearts are in it, maybe the Mavs will match the physicality and intensity of the 2006 Heat and 2007 Warriors. Maybe they’ll be able to use their talents to win that elusive championship ring.

Or maybe they’ll collapse yet again.

Another top seed in the Western Conference is a given. But the regular season won't determine whether or not Dallas’ psyche has been successfully rewired.

The next five months are little more than an extended preseason for the Mavericks. And if Dirk and company can’t win this year, they probably never will.

2) San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are the pinnacle of the NBA.

Their team features tremendous individual players; no glaring weaknesses; a brilliant motivator, teacher, and tactician; and the collective ability to rise to every occasion.

No other team forces opponents to adjust more, and no other team is as able to adapt.

Tim Duncan’s surgical precision from the left box picks defenses apart. His patience and intelligence consistently destroy opposing double-teams—and only the luckiest of teams single Duncan and live to tell about it.

Duncan may be losing a step, but since his game is more cerebral than physical, he should age with grace.

What's more, his defense, whether man-to-man or help, remains the standard all NBA big men are measured by.

Tony Parker has become a competent jump shooter, especially at home. Parker can blow by anyone to the hoop, and his ability to hit floaters and layups at impossible angles neutralizes NBA shot blockers.

Manu Ginobli is a jack-of-all-trades, master of many. Ginobli’s only real flaws are his right-handed dribble and his penchant to aggravate fans by flopping into charges.

Michael Finley may be in steady decline, but he’s still able to come right-to-left off an off-ball screen to bury midrange jumpers. His rotations are smar, and his shooting, while inconsistent, is dangerous.

Fabricio Oberto is endlessly energetic around the offensive glass. He's also a smart cutter who knows how to move without the ball to create his points.

Brent Barry is a terrific passer, poor decision-maker, accurate three-point shooter, and terrible defender. Since the Spurs know how to minimize risks, Barry’s usually noted for his talents instead of his shortcomings.

Robert Horry is a perfect intangibles guy who always has a big shot up his sleeve.

Matt Bonner is another deadly three-point shooter and intangibles guy. After sitting a year in the San Antonio system, he should be better able to defend at the level the Spurs expect while showing off his marksmanship at the offensive end.

While Bruce Bowen can be outplayed physically in the post, he’s the one doing the bullying away from the basket.

Ime Udoka has no offensive game, but his defensive talents may prove to be a nightmare for Spurs' opponents.

Jacque Vaughn’s pesky defense, crisp passes, and well-timed midrange jumpers are all the Spurs need from him.

The only bad news is that Barry, Finley, Horry, Bowen, Elson, Oberto, and Duncan are all on the plus-side of 30. And any injury to Duncan is a crippling blow to the Spurs’ chances of repeating.

With so many veterans, will the Spurs break down at any point? And will Vaughn continue to be a useful role player, or will he teeter back to offensive liability?

Like last season, expect some inconsistent play early and a less than pristine regular season record. But also expect the older guys to be kept fresh throughout the season, with the entire team peaking come April.

Unless age and injury cripple the roster, the Spurs remain the team to beat in the NBA.

3) New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets should be able to step up into the playoffs this season.

Chris Paul is one of the slickest point guards in the league, and he’s only getting better with age. If he can improve his jumper, he’ll take his game up a level.
                    
David West gives New Orleans a banger down low, and is a reliable midrange shooter. Morris Peterson is a well-rounded scorer who’s better the more he plays. Peja Stojakovic is one of the best first, second, and third quarter shooters in recent memory.

Tyson Chandler, for his part, is finally emerging into a competent low-post scorer, and is a quality defensive big man.
              
That said, the Hornets are hindered by a severe lack of depth at guard, a lack of creative wing scorers, Paul’s inconsistent jump shot, Chandler’s limited offensive game, West’s nagging injury problems, and Stojakovic’s habit of firing blanks in the clutch.
                  
New Orleans will likely get swept should they make the playoffs, but Paul and West should be able to get the team that far.

4) Houston Rockets
              
Everyone assumes that because Houston has Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming—and has added Rick Adelman and his up-tempo offense—the Rockets are guaranteed to blast into championship orbit.

Funny that nobody looks at how mismatched the Rocket roster is with the new system.

McGrady has the physical tools, but with more fast breaks leading to more possessions, more cuts, more changes-of-direction, and less seconds to rest on offense, can his back hold up?
                         
Why would McGrady want to risk injury by running when he’s become so perfectly comfortable getting the ball at the wing and being asked to make something happen?
                  
And McGrady’s never been one to get himself open off the ball—which means Adelman will have to tweak his offensive sets to suit his star.
                
The Rockets' many point guards are all up-tempo players —but that’s because they're all shoot-first scorers who can’t operate a half-court offense. With the lack of a true shooting guard, expect two point guards on the court at most times.
                           
Shane Battier should thrive as Houston’s Doug Christie. Chuck Hayes is a menacing rebounder with no offensive game. Dikembe Mutombo will bring quality defense, fouls, and rebounding for about eight minutes a night. 

Hayes and Mutombo are niche players at best. Maybe they can rebound enough to fuel a break, but they’ll just take up space on offense.
                   
And then there’s Yao.

Yao isn’t the gifted passer Vlade Divac, Brad Miller, and Chris Webber were in Sacramento. Because of that, the game plan must be tweaked again.

Yao is a bruising giant on the boards who uses his sheer size, rather than any technique or athleticism, to gather in rebounds. On offense, Yao plays with more finesse, but the hitch in his hook shot makes it easier for opponents to swat away.
           
Yao can’t play in the high post, so he’s susceptible to poundings in the low box. As stamina has been an issue with Yao, and as his backup is ancient, can the Rockets really last a season with the Ming Man getting major minutes?
            
The X-factor is Bonzi Wells. He’s always been able to score, but his moodiness and selfishness have alienated him from many organizations.
              
Last year, the Rockets were able to hide their flaws by slowing down the game, limiting possessions, and having McGrady and Yao do just enough to win.

With the offense opening up, expect the wounds to open up too. Don’t look for full seasons out of McGrady and Yao.

Some team has to slip in order for New Orleans to slide up. The Rockets will be the disappointed party.

5) Memphis Grizzlies  

The Grizzlies should be an improved squad compared to last year, but it will take until the end of the season for them to find their groove.

That’s because Marc Iavaroni, in his quest to morph the Grizzlies into the Phoenix Suns, has only Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay as legit runners.

Damon Stoudamire has the wherewithal to run, but his knees are shot. Mike Conley has the athleticism and ball skills, but he’s still too raw an apprentice to lead the Grizzlies' guild.

Mike Miller can run a little, but he needs playmakers to set him up. Pau Gasol can score in the post but has leaden feat. Tarrence Kinsey has to prove he’s more than a half-year wonder, while Stromile Swift has never lived up to his wonderful athletic talents.

If Conley’s learning curve is accelerated, the Grizzlies could be a dangerous home team late in the season. If not, expect the Grizzlies to have a shot at another top pick...should the ping pong balls cooperate this year.