Alabama Vs. Texas: The Final Analysis and The "McCoy Factor"

BCS Championship Game @ Pasadena, CA
ALABAMA vs. TEXAS
(From Charles Jay, Total Action Extra )

(THE LINE: Alabama -4, Total 45.5) --  It's hard to separate these two teams when it comes to the numbers they have compiled on defense. Alabama is second nationally in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, scoring defense and total defense, and only two teams had more than 20 points against the Tide. Texas, which ranked third in overall defense, has allowed less rushing yards than anyone in the country, and slightly less than two yards a carry, not to mention picking off 24 passes and achieving 39 quarterback sacks. There are pro prospects all around, including linebacker/defensive end Sergio Kindle. Both teams permitted only five rushing touchdowns.

The Longhorns, who scored 66 TD's, would appear on the surface to have an edge on offense. However......

I don't want to ascribe too much importance to some of the gratuitous scores Texas piled up on some of its opponents, like the 64-7 rout of UTEP that came at a time when the Longhorns were looking to do something to separate themselves from the pack of unbeaten challengers to Florida's place at the top. What kind of stands out is that this was not a great year for the Big 12, which in the past was one of the deepest conferences in college football.

Teams like Texas Tech and Missouri were in something of a transition, and while they made it to bowl games, they were not anything special. Kansas went in the tank. Texas A&M started to rise, but they are young and inexperienced and without defense. Nebraska, which developed a fearsome stop unit, was without offense for almost the whole season. Oklahoma State never got a real head of steam going, having lost wide receiver Dez Bryant (a possible top-five draft choice) to ineligibility. Oklahoma was a shell of what it was last year, and the loss of Sam Bradford didn't help. Frankly, there was not a lot for Texas to shine against, and with life-and-death battles against the Sooners, Huskers and even the Aggies, I'm not quite sure how good this team is.

By no means am I granting a quarterback advantage to Greg McElroy, who doesn't appear to possess Colt McCoy's all-around skills or experience as a four-year starter and two-time Heisman finalist. But a close examination of McCoy reveals that not only did he average almost a yard and a half less per attempt than he did last year, he was also a bit more erratic (12 interceptions, four more than last). On top of that, when called upon against the best defenses he'd face this season, he did not excel, to put it mildly. Texas Tech, which is not known for defense but had an improved unit, held him to 205 yards in 34 attempts and made two interceptions. Against Oklahoma, he was 21-for-39 for just 127 yards. Oklahoma State, another team which had a respectable defense but nothing earth-shattering, limited McCoy to 171 yards, and in the Big 12 title game, Nebraska held him to 184 yards passing (five yards an attempt) and picked him off three times.

In those four games, against arguably the four best opponents on the Texas schedule, McCoy was 62.3%, still very good but down from his season average, and passed for only 5.1 yards an attempt, which is JaMarcus Russell territory - way down from McCoy's 7.5-yard figure on the season and way, WAY down from his 8.9 yards of a year ago. In those games he threw just three TD passes but six INT's, and in all other games, against opposition that was found wanting for the most part, McCoy had a 24-6 ratio. Much was made of his mobility after rushing for 175 yards against Texas A&M, and he certainly has that in his arsenal, but he's become more of a drop-back type; that figure constituted more than half his rushing total, and he didn't have more than 44 yards in any other game. Even Mike Sherman would admit that his Aggie stop unit isn't in the same area code as Alabama's when it comes to being able to contain the quarterback.

None of this would be a big concern for McCoy if Texas had the kind of running game that could be reliable against a defense of Alabama's quality, But the 'Horns had a pedestrian attack, with freshman Tre Newton the leader at 513 yards, and a total of 200 yards or more only against UTEP, Baylor and A&M. So expect Nick Saban to send pressure.

What we're saying here is that those who might want to afford an edge to Texas in this game primarily on the basis of the "McCoy factor" may want to double back and gather some perspective.

Incidentally, as far as McElroy goes, he threw 17 touchdown passes with only four interceptions, ranked 26th on the nation's efficiency list (McCoy was 17th) and between high school and college has started 29 games - all of which his team has won.

As we have mentioned Texas' close calls, we would be remiss if we didn't mention some very anxious moments Alabama had against Tennessee (12-10) and Auburn (26-21), not to mention a tough LSU team (24-15). As you're looking at this game, however, you may want to consider the disparity in quality between the SEC and Big 12, which in this reporter's opinion was considerable this season. Nick Saban's team dominated the biggest game of its season, against the team that was considered to be a clear #1 (Florida), gaining 490 yards against a defense that had allowed only 233 per game. Plus, Alabama scored a win over the kind of solid out-of-conference opponent (Virginia Tech) that Texas did not schedule. Adjust your stats relative to THAT.

Both of these teams have return game studs. Javier Arenas brings back punts and kickoffs for the Tide, while the 'Horns counter with the explosive DJ Monroe (a kickoff returner who is off suspension for this game) and Jordan Shipley, the All-America receiver who handles punts. In a game where we concede defense could play a dominant part, that can mean a lot. But Alabama has an edge with kicker Leigh Tiffin, the Lou Groza Award winner, who can turn more drives into points, and the presence of Heisman winner Mark Ingram (1542 yards) and freshman backup Trent Richardson give Alabama more balance, and thus more ways to advance the ball.

Both of these clubs are likely to bring a lot of pressure on the defensive side, but 'Bama is the side that will counter-act the pressure better, and "cheat" on defense more effectively. We have to roll with the Tide.

THE PLAY:  ALABAMA -4 ***
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)

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