Mega Wild Card Preview

The appetizer is over and let the main course begin. The NFL regular season is a thing of the past and the playoffs are here. This is what NFL fans wait for all year; a time where all games are sudden death, emotions are high, and every snap matters. The NFL playoffs are a time when superstars can become immortals and great coaches can become legendary. However, the opposite can happen just as fast, fan favorites can become goats and smart coaches can become idiots. Wild Card Weekend looks like it’s going to be a great weekend of football. Well, let me take that back, three out of the four games look like they’ll be good, I’ll elaborate in a bit. Three out of the four games this weekend are rematches from Week 17. Will the results be the same? Let’s take a look.

Saturday January 9, 2010

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals 4:30 ET

Prediction

New York Jets (+2.5) 17

Cincinnati Bengals        10

Before I explain my prediction, this is the exception to my earlier statement of “Wild Card Weekend looks like it’s going to be a great weekend of football.” This game can be compared to an opening act at a concert; you don’t watch Wild Card Weekend with this game in mind, but since it’s on, you might as well watch it and hope it goes by quickly so you can get to the other games. There’s really not a lot of excitement surrounding either team; the Bengals have been bad for two months and the Jets snuck in the back door to a playoff spot. Points are going to be at a premium during this game; the weather’s probably going to be cold, both defenses are tough (I’m going to assume that the Bengals defense actually gets off the team bus this week) and both offenses rely on ball control. Both teams are pretty evenly matched (again taking last week out of the equation), but I give the edge to the Jets in regards to “Big Mo,” momentum. The fighting Rex Ryans have had to scratch and claw just to put themselves in a position to make the playoffs. Their playoffs started about 4 weeks ago. The Bengals on the other hand, have played more like the 2008 Bengals for the last 8 weeks. In their last 8 games, the Bengals have gone 3-5, with their 3 wins being against Kansas City, Cleveland, and Detroit. Even in those games they won, they only averaged 18.7 points per game. Teams like San Diego and Indianapolis would average 18.7 points per half against that type of competition. Bengals QB Carson Palmer over that 8 game stretch has only thrown for 7 touchdowns and has been averaging in the low 200’s in regards to passing yards per game. So you have a struggling offense in Cincinnati playing a Jets defense, which has been playing as well as anybody for the last 5 weeks. In addition, the Jets exposed the Bengals rush defense last week, gaining 257 yards on the ground. I don’t think 6 days is enough time for the Bengals to fix the problems they have with their rush defense. I understand that all signs point towards a Cincinnati victory; they have home field advantage, they’re playing with emotion due to the defensive coordinator’s wife and Chris Henry passing away, and they’re playing a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the road. However, I don’t think that Cincinnati has the talent to flip the switch and quickly stop their slumping ways. The Jets play smash mouth football, limit Sanchez’s throws, and pick off Palmer late to clinch the win and move on to Indianapolis next week. If that happens, let’s just hope that Indy doesn’t yank their players during the third quarter. Oops! I’m sorry. Was that salt in wound Indy fans?      

Saturday January 9^th , 2010

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 8:00 ET

Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles    31

Dallas Cowboys (-4) 35

Expect a closer game than the one these teams had last week. Week 17 was another installment of “Inexplicable Colossal Stink Bombs” produced by Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid. For as good as those two have been, once in a while they’ll put up a stinker that’ll just leave you scratching your head. (i.e. last week and Oakland week 6) Last week, Philly technically dropped 4 seeds. If they beat the Cowboys, Philly would have been a #2 seed, but they got smoked and dropped all the way to a #6. So could we then call their hard fall “Ron Artest-ish?” (Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week! Try the veal!) Anyway, expect a lot of points in this one. It’s hard to think that Philly’s offense is going to be shut out again. They had three or four big play opportunities last week that slipped through their fingers. Don’t expect the Eagles to miss those opportunities again. Moving teams, I almost didn’t recognize the Dallas offense last week; they ran the ball, consistently. Marion Barber and Felix Jones dashed up and down the field on the Philly D for 179 yards, leaving the Philly defense with tire tracks on the front of their jerseys. I would expect more of the same from Tony Romo and Co., with heavy emphasis on getting the ball in Jones’ hands. It seems like every time that guy touches the ball, there’s about a chance he’s taking it to the house. The Eagles D also showed last week that they can’t cover Cowboys tight end Jason Witten. They let Witten get free release after free release, and the with the size and speed Witten possesses, if you let him get off the ball untouched, he’s going to do some damage. He certainly did so, catching 6 balls for 76 yards and 1 touchdown, with most of those numbers coming in the first half. I’m not quite ready to disregard the “It’s the last three months of the season, so Dallas now has to suck” theory with the Cowboys’ recent play, because with Wade Phillips at the helm, the option’s always open. However, with Dallas’ big play capabilities with Barber, Jones, Witten, and wide receiver Miles Austin, Dallas has too many weapons for the Philly D to cover. McNabb and DeSean Jackson both have big games for the Eagles, but Dallas will score last to win a shoot-out at the O.K. Corral.

Sunday January 10, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots 1:00 ET

Prediction

Baltimore (+3.5) 24

New England      27

This decision went back and forth in my head so many times that it gave me flashbacks to when John Kerry ran for the Presidency in 2004. There are about 5 arguments for each team as to why they would win this game. Here’s what I decided on. I hope this statement isn’t the black hole that it’s proved to be on a number of occasions this year, but, with that being said, “These are the Patriots. They win these types of games.” At home, in January, the Patriots win, period. Now, here are the reasons why they’ll win. The first reason is that they’re facing a Joe Flacco that has gone backwards in his progression this year. In big game situations, it seems as though he gets flustered a lot quicker than he did during his rookie season. Making dumb throws, not making the right decisions at the line, and rushing with his delivery are just some of the things he’s done this year under pressure. You better believe that The Hoodie is coming after him and hoping to disrupt Flacco’s rhythm early.  The second thing the Patriots have going for them is that Wes Welker got hurt last week. Yes you heard me correctly, and no, I don’t do drugs. This might be the thing that rallies the Patriots around each other. During the Patriots run of dominance, there always seems to be something that gets them to have an “us against the world” mentality; Spygate, Lawyer Milloy leaving during the preseason, severe underdog, etc. The Wes Welker injury has everybody talking that the Pats won’t be as effective and that they might even lose Sunday afternoon against the Ravens. Don’t think for one second that Belichick isn’t reiterating this to his team and telling them that they don’t have a chance to make it far in the playoffs. Also, don’t think for one second that the Patriots aren’t eating this up and rallying around each other. X’s and O’s wise, the Patriots passing attack will expose a weak Baltimore secondary, even with Randy Moss getting double covered for most of the game. I’m not sure that any Baltimore linebacker or nickel back will be able to effectively cover receiver Julian Edelman or tight end Benjamin Watson. Expect big days from both guys. With the Patriots rushing attack being as good as it has for the last month, expect them to try and keep it balanced with their attack. Baltimore stays in it because of their own rushing tandem of Willis McGahee and Ray Rice. Both of them had good games last week against the Raiders, but then again, who doesn’t have a big game against the Raiders? Expect them to run a ball control type offense to limit the touches of the Pats. In the end, Baltimore won’t be able to stop the Pats on D, and Flacco makes a couple of mistakes that ends up costing the Ravens in the end. The Patriots move on to San Diego to revisit a heated rivalry that seems to warm up every January.

Sunday January 10, 2010

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals 4:30 ET

The Prediction

Green Bay Packers      37

Arizona Cardinals (-1)  38

Get your abacus ready because a lot of points and yards are going to be put up. This game will not be for the defensive at heart, two potent offenses going against defenses that are susceptible to the big play. Last week’s game should be thrown out the window entirely because Arizona started Matt Lienart, that should be proof enough to show they didn’t care about the outcome. This is the first playoff game during the A.F. (after Favre) Era and the first one for Aaron Rodgers. He has definitely developed into an elite quarterback, and might be one of the most entertaining quarterbacks to watch. He definitely hasn’t done it alone; Rodgers has a slew of weapons at his disposal. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are dangerous deep threats, James Jones is a reliable underneath receiver, Ryan Grant is a back that eats up yards, and tight end Jermichael Finley is a physical freak. The Packers offense, with its versatility, can match up well against most defenses in the NFL. The term versatility cannot be used for the Cardinals however; they’re 12^th in the league in passing statistics, but 28^th in total rushing. Expect Kurt Warner to throw it early and often to Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and Larry Fitzgerald. The key to this game is going to be Kurt Warner against the Packers defense. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers likes to put together exotic blitz packages to try and confuse quarterbacks and put pressure on them. Kurt Warner has historically picked apart defenses that try and blitz him. Warner will win this match up and have a couple of big pass plays with Boldin and Fitzgerald. Green Bay will blitz Warner all day and he’ll keep picking them apart, for chunks of yards at a time. This game will be similar to the Dallas/Philly game because whoever gets the ball last will win, it’ll be Arizona. With the magical postseason Arizona had a year ago, I can’t go against them until someone beats them. It won’t be Green Bay this Sunday.