A Pragmatic Longhorn's View of Texas-Alabama BCS Championship

I haven’t been writing much because I’ve been slammed with work, recharging my battery while visiting family and friends in Austin, gaining so much sodium bloating from festive seasonal eating that my now fattened sausage fingers can’t manipulate a keyboard without pressing three keys at a time, I’ve been intensely focused on the new season of the Bachelor and…well, OK, the real reason: I’m not very enthused about what I’m about to write for you.

Let me be blunt: we’re underdogs for good reason.

That doesn’t mean we can’t win. We absolutely can.

That doesn’t mean there’s no chance I won’t (I love double negatives) leave the Rose Bowl around 8:30 PST Thursday evening seized with pure joy and begin a maniacal reign of drunken terror on Alabama fans, any LA guy I see wearing skinny jeans, an array of LAPD mounted policeman with whatever easily lobbed foods that I can purchase at Panda Express, the Kardashians, and the drive-thru of an In N Out Burger around 3:00 am.

But I am telling you, it is moderately improbable. If you’re the quantitative type, I’m putting our odds at 36.5 percent. If you’re the qualitative type, I’ll say “sorta shitty.”

If you’re neither, I want to know something: just what are you?

I’ve looked at the matchup from every angle (including Funhouse mirrors, where, interestingly, Terrence Cody actually resembles a young Denzel Washington instead of the obese corn rowed girl I knew in eighth grade that beat up our starting QB with a can of hair spray wielded like Ray Liotta’s pistol whipping in Goodfellas ).

Unlike my wild optimism headed into the USC game in ‘06—still the greatest sporting event I’ve ever attended and the greatest college football game ever played—I leave for Los Angeles tomorrow for my third Rose Bowl with the hope that faith and defense are enough to win a national championship. Given my agnosticism, that leaves me with defense. But if Will Muschamp comes through, I’ll reconsider the agnosticism.

There have been many reasons advanced by Longhorn faithful as to why we win and I’d like to examine the main ones. Interestingly, when one leaves the rock solid logical realm of our defense or kick returns, they are almost all focused on intangibles. Most are completely embarrassing and often vaguely Aggie-like.

Intangibles are great. Intangibles are fun. Intangibles are also…NOT TANGIBLE. You can’t see them, touch them, or even adequately explain them. Like phlogiston, Bob Stoops’ chin, horoscopes, Asgard, chupacabras, chemistryness, German humor, my sense of decorum in Las Vegas, clutchitude, and Nessie.

Let me break it down for you in another way: grown men who work a paper route, are impotent, wear Jacksonville Jaguar starter jerseys, and resemble one of the fat moped twins from the Guinness Book of World Records often hope that women will come to appreciate their many intangibles . When Michael Spinks fought Mike Tyson, he had intangibles like a motherfucker, I can assure you.

So here are the best I’ve stumbled across on the internets:

Alabama Blew Their Load Against Florida: That Was Their Super Bowl

Great point. If I get with Penelope Cruz on Dec. 5, I couldn’t imagine summoning the mental and physical energy to make the two-humped beast with Petra Nemcova one month later. For the National Championship.

Really, I just can’t see Alabama’s motivation here at all. I mean, ours is clear—a National Championship. But their payoff in all of this is just so opaque. What’s in it for Bama? Spell it out for me! Why would they even show up? Some of you will be mystified when the NFC Championship game winner decides to play hard in the Super Bowl.

Colt Lost The Heisman to a Bama RB, Vince Lost The Heisman to a USC RB. Now he’s mad! Watch out Bama!

And Kennedy’s secretary was named Johnson!

This is a glimpse into a child’s world of cause and effect. This is only slightly less absurd than the OL version of this assertion (Our OL lost Colt the Heisman, now they’re mad!) or the OC version (Greg Davis lost Colt the Heisman, he vows to eat more Activia!)

Listen, Vince Young was going to lay waste to USC whether he’d won the Heisman in a landslide, was runner-up in Ms. Teen Black America, or won the Publisher’s Clearinghouse Sweepstakes. VY humiliates foes on big stages. He is VY. That is his programming.

And if Colt had Blalock, Sendlein, Scott, Allen, Studdard blocking for him this year with David Thomas to throw to as well, he would handle Bama’s D too. Let me suggest that petty motivations will lose their value around the same time we hit James Kirkendoll for minus-two on our opening play.

Muschamp and Applewhite Worked for Saban: They Know His Secrets!

And he knows theirs.

Saban taught Muschamp all he knows and he oppressed Applewhite like he was Poland and Saban was Stalin. Tuscaloosa was Applewhite’s Katyn Forest.

Listen, coaches watch film in preparing for this stuff. For like a month. Really. There’s no advantage here beyond the inherent capacity of what each staff brings to the contest. Muschamp?—I feel good. Saban?—He’ll do his job very well. Offenses? Hmmm. So let’s talk about that…

Alabama had 10 days to prepare for the SEC title game and brought an uncharacteristic play-action game on first down with McElroy firing the rock like he was back at Southlake, a half dozen creative new wrinkles in the passing game (mostly involving the TE and RB), and lots of polished badassedness.

Greg Davis had ten days to ready himself for the Big 12 title game and he spent that time focusing on his whist league; reasoning that any player whose name he couldn’t pronounce must not be worth a shit and didn’t need a double team.

On a side note, if we’d ever faced Nnamdi Asomugha at Cal, we would have had five pick sixes in the first half. Bottom line: fear West Africans. And East Africans, if we’re talking Idi Amin.

Nick Saban Will Have His Team Wound Tighter Than Our Road Whites. We’ll Be Loosey Goosey and Put Whoopee Cushions Under Cleve Bryant’s Hemorrhoid Doughnut!

OK, here’s an intangible I can possibly buy. Saban is a good big game coach, but he’s wound tight. He shits rabbit pellets and grinds his teeth. He speaks Spanish using usted and his family beagle is named EXECUTE!

Dude once called Donny Osmond a hippie.

He might just psyche his team out and have McElroy so worried about managing the game without turnovers that Greg’s first throw will sail end-over-end like a aborigine chucking a boomerang at a wallaby. McElroy then crumbles to the ground and sobs like Ann Heche and Sergio Kindle clubs him to death with an Alabama cheerleader.

By the way, how have we handled big game pressure this year? Nebraska. Clock management. Offensive abortion. Oh. How about another neutral site game—OU! Colt’s best play was a tackle on a pick six.

Apparently, our intangibles are so intangible that it magnifies their very intangibility. Advantage: Texas!

We Own the Rose Bowl!

No. We do not. It is owned by a consortium of Saudi princes and the Rothschilds. Every ninth Bastille Day, they force Madeline Albright to sacrifice a sickly Mormon child on the 50 yard line with a riding mower to cement their unholy bond and guarantee them reservations at Spago.

Look, I love the Rose Bowl. It’s the best place to watch football on the planet. Our two wins there are the finest games I’ve ever attended as a Longhorn fan. Those teams are gone. You-know-who is now mindfucking Jeff Fisher for a living now.

I’m guessing the two teams on the field will have more to say about outcome than our aura, vibe, history, or our unparalleled ability to perform athletics in 67 degree weather. Apparently, we are the only team in America that can handle pleasing levels of barometric pressure.

As for history, if you think time will wrinkle Hawking-style and spit out Vince Young running for an 80 yard touchdown, I hope he isn’t followed by a tyrannosaurus freed from the epochal confines of the La Brea tar pits.

Actually, I do. Because that would be fantastic.

Please let there be an ankylosaurus too!

Bama Is Overconfident! We’re the Underdog. Look at ________ (Fill In Blank With Improbable Victor In Contest From Bible, Rocky Film, Previous Bowl Game, Survivor Cast Member, Liza Minelli)

I never underestimate the psychological power of being an underdog or the appeal of Scientology to people with low IQs. Like strip mining, it can move mountains. Years ago, many said Barking Carnival could never become a mediocre sports blog full of snark, but look at us now. Please consider that the dodo bird was a bit of an underdog too.

Say What You Want, but Give Greg Davis a Month to Prepare and…

And what? What do you get? A tax-free conversion from your 401K to a Roth IRA? A safer Papau New Guinea? Braces? A deeper appreciation of the meaning of Kwanzaa? An end to the Maoist insurgency in Nepal? A sudden interest in joining a ham radio club? A Rin Tin Tin decoder ring?

We played two big boy defenses this year. Against them, we went 7-for-35 on third down, averaged 236 yards per game, put up 13 and 16 points, respectively (and the defense helped quite a bit with that), and turned it over six times combined. We’d worked on OU since the summer and had almost two weeks for Nebraska.

Will we see a nice little wrinkle or two? For sure. Will it outweigh our hardwired schematic weaknesses and lazy approach—”we’re gonna do what we do?” C’mon admit it. You know in some deep part of your soul that we will line up in the I backed up on our goalline and reach block Cody. If we lose the game 2-0, I will hurl defecant at our offensive coaches as they leave Pasadena. Not my own though.

Alabama’s D Is Different From Nebraska: They Can’t Do What Nebraska Did to Us. Blah blah blah…more words

Yes they are different. Hakeem Olujawon was different from Larry Bird. Both could destroy you. They can too. Oklahoma wasn’t Nebraska either. The personnel and individual strengths can change, the problem remains the same: when an opposing defense of a certain overall quality plays us, we get savaged.

It’s a simple numbers game. If they have enough talent and coaching to whip our running game with even or even less-than-even numbers, they can put seven in coverage on our four wides. Or, if our TE is in the game, six on three. Over time, they win that matchup on most snaps.

Suh Was a Cheetah-Rhino hybrid; Cody Is a Cholesterol-Ridden Mastodon

I don’t think Cody will have a huge game impact if we coach at any level above junior high. However, you’re buying into the false media hype that Cody is the key piece on their defense. He’s not. Worry about Marcel Darius if you want to focus on a DL. He’s legit as a pass rusher. And you might ponder the zone blitzes where Alabama creates an illusion of pressure with four—three overloaded on one side—and then has our quick routes jumped. We’re suckers for it.

So now that we’ve battered around the mystics a bit, how can we win?

Offense

I’ll skip the obvious platitudes like “Colt needs to play well.” That written, Colt needs to play well. Three picks won’t get it done, no matter how many 3rd-and-12s we put him in.

Manufacture a Running Game

Something. Anything. Or do things that mimic its value: shovels, boots, RB screens…

Ha. That was funny. I wrote RB screen and almost believed it. We time the RB screen game as well as a Klan convention at a NBA All-Star weekend. But I can dream.

Or maybe we’ll install the ultra-nifty Dallas Cowboy inside lead delay draw. And maybe we’ll also sneak Andre Gurode and Leonard Davis in to block it for us. We need Colt to be involved, obviously. Whether it’s zone read, running QB lead draws, encouraging run-pass option boots, or, imagine, just running real running plays without asking everyone to reach block. We have to do enough to force some sort of honesty.

Up Tempo

The soundtrack of our offense needs to be Prodigy, not Streisand.

Alabama has legitimate struggles with fast-paced O (is it their size? how they signal plays? don't know—cannot figure out) and they can’t keep Cody on the field if you go no-huddle fast tempo.

We’ll need to do more than just run an inside zone play over and over, our idiot’s version of a hurry-up. We need actual offense, with multiple different plays—running/passing—each building off of the other. Then run it without stopping. At halftime, put in some more.

This is our best chance on offense by far and our best hope to achieve a Where Did That Come From? performance. Fingers crossed.

Get Them In Man, Iso a Safety

If Bama can flood the field with DBs or play their LBs eight yards from the LOS with impunity, we’re sunk. Extra DBs will allow them to play man-under with their corners and keep their big safeties free of specific coverage responsibility, allowing them to ballhawk and thump. That will end very badly for us.

If, however, we can force some man coverage and run the ball just respectably enough to get Bama to keep honest personnel on the field, we’ve got a real shot if we can get Malcolm Williams or Shipley running with a 215-pounder deep.

Mind you, Bama’s safeties are good bigs, but they don’t have the hips to run with our best on a double move. Our best shot at a big play TD. See, aren’t I being positive now?

Defense

I feel good here overall, but the Tide do present some challenges that are unique given that our offense and scout teams cannot in any way mimic what it feels like to go against a downhill running team with physical OL with real athletic ability, three good to excellent backs, and a big TE. If you say Oklahoma State, I will rebuke you. Different league, hoss.

My concerns are:

Play Their Screen Game

We’ve got to get a handle on this. We’re not great against the RB screen (see OU game, among others) and much of that is because we don’t get to see them in practice run effectively. Ingram broke Florida’s back with his 69 yard reception and it’s a hugely underrated part of his game. I fear this as a backbreaker in a 14-10 tight game late.

Peek and Maze

I’m not particularly fearful of Julio Jones, unless it’s competing in a spelling bee. He runs poor routes. The main thing is just respecting his straight line speed and tackling well, as he is huge. By the way, if he weighs 210, then Saban is 6' 3" and 230-plus, easy.

Maze is nifty, he can get deep on you, and he can do things after the catch. There are times where we’re going to have him on an island to overload the run and we’re going to need exemplary coverage. I expect Alabama to take their shots with Marquis.

Peek is a good TE and he’s huge. Like Maze, his numbers don’t accurately represent his potential.

Reminds me a lot of David Boss from the NY Giants. He might only have three catches but I’ll be willing to bet that if he does, they’ll all be third down conversions or red zone back breakers.

They have to like him matched on Gideon. The nice limiting factor on Peek is that Bama isn’t wild about their pass protection at RT. So if Acho can wreak a little havoc, the Tide may have to leash Peek.

Adjustment Time

We can’t simulate what Bama looks like on offense. People equate physical with big, but Bama’s OL is physical because of their athleticism and motor. They’re really well-coached and they love to trap, pull, move; some things that we just don’t see. Ingram is the perfect back for them and Richardson and Upchurch are big time change-ups. I worry about the potential for a slow start as we take time to adjust—see Beanie Wells, Fiesta Bowl.

Special Teams

Pretty simple: if we have a net plus here (good kick coverage, a big kick or punt return), our chances of winning go even money or better. If we have a net loss (bad coverage and/or allow Arenas to hurt us), I see our chances as slim and none with none leaving town soon.

I’ll reread this essay tomorrow morning with total contempt as I psyche myself up that we will, in fact, win by 30, but this is my current no-shit assessment. My sincere hope is that I can log on early Friday morning and eat a big bag of crow for my moderate pessimism. Until then, I think Bama is a legitimate favorite. For tangible reasons.

Hook ‘em.

This article was written by Scipio Tex of Barking Carnival

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