Bits And Pieces

Scott Boras has done it again.  In a market in which Jason Bay could only get $66 million over four years guaranteed from the New York Market Mets, Matt Holliday just received somewhere between $119-120 million for seven years from the Cardinals.  In other words, compared to the Bay signing, the Cardinals overpaid by about two years and $30 million.

This deal looks to have all the hallmarks of the Giants’ decision to sign Randy Winn to three-year $23.25 million dollar deal before the 2006 season.  The Giants acquired Winn from Seattle at the 2005 trade deadline, and he had two amazing months as a Giant, batting .359 with a 1.071 OPS.

It was a total fluke, but the Giants paid out as if maybe Randy had finally learned to hit at age 31. ( He hadn’t.)

Meanwhile, after all those big years in Colorado at the ages at which players generally peak, in four months in Oakland in ‘09, Holliday had only an .832 OPS; but in the last two months with the Cardinals he hit .353 with a 1.023 OPS.  The problem for the Cardinals is that Holliday’s .832 OPS in Oakland accurately reflects the hitter he truly is.

Matt has a career road OPS of .808, according to SI.com.  Oakland is a tough place to hit, and an .832 OPS from your left fielder there is not as bad as it would be anywhere else.  (Joe Rudi was a fine left fielder for Oakland, but in his seven seasons as a regular there, he posted an .832 or better OPS only twice (.832 and .834), albeit in an era with a lot less offense.)

My point is that if you take into account what a uniquely wonderful place to hit Denver is, Holliday’s last two months of 2009 were probably a fluke that the Cardinals will now learn to appreciate at their leisure.

Randy Johnson retired.  Economic times like the present tend to weed out the overpaid veterans who may or may not have something left.

Johnson missed most of the second half of ‘09 with a shoulder injury, but he was well enough to close out the season with five relief appearances in late September and early October.  His final 2009 line was 96 IP, 97 hits, 19 HRs and 31 walks allowed, 86 Ks and a 4.88 ERA.  The HRs allowed is ugly, but the other numbers are not bad at all for a fifth starter.  I have to think he had another year left in him at the right price.

In the quotes I saw on ESPN.com about Johnson’s announcement today, he talked about wanting to be the one to decide when it was time to call it quits.  I suspect the current market had a lot to do with it.

Last year, the Giants signed Randy for $8 million for 2009.  There’s no way in the world he would get anywhere close to that this off-season.  He’s got enough money, he can decide that it isn’t worth pitching for only $2 million guaranteed in 2010.

He was sometimes irascible, but I’ll miss Randy Johnson.  He was one of a kind and a great, great pitcher.  Also, I hate to see a pitcher go when his ratios indicate he still has good stuff.

Speaking of the Giants, I learned today that the Giants resigned Juan Uribe for 2010 at $3.25 million.  Seems like a lot of money to me in this market.  Juan had a fine 2009 and he gives the Giants a lot of flexibility.  However, the Giants just paid Mark DeRosa $12 million for right-handed hitting flexibility, and I expect that Uribe’s batting numbers in 2010 won’t match those of ‘09.

In ‘09 at age 30, Juan had an .824 OPS.  That followed four seasons with the White Sox in which he posted OPS numbers (going backwards) of .682, .678, .698 and .713.   O.K., the American League is currently the better league and all that, but National League teams, pitchers and scouts are just as capable of learning that you don’t have to throw strikes to a player who won’t take a walk.

In ‘09 Uribe walked 25 times in 398 at-bats.  It was a pretty typical year for him.  Uribe has now proved that he can hit hard the get-it-over strikes thrown by NL pitchers, just as he proved it against AL pitchers some years ago.

It doesn’t take a genius to see that NL pitchers in 2010 are likely to throw Uribe far fewer pitches to hit than they did in 2010.  Since Uribe has never shown any willingness to take a walk, the odds are not good for another .800+ OPS in 2010.

I also saw a report today that 1Bman Adam LaRoche rejected a two-year $17 million offer from the Giants.  For a 1Bman who had a combined .843 OPS playing in Atlanta, Boston and Pittsburgh in 2009, after two previous seasons in Pittsburgh under .850, turning down that offer was probably a mistake.

I’ve seen prior reports that LaRoche has his heart set on three-years at $30 million.  The players who hold on fiercely to unreasonable expectations in a bad market tend to get burned in the end.  The Giants have allegedly pulled their offer, but still have interest for the future moment when LaRoche wakes up and smells the coffee.

mlbtraderumors.com suggests that the Orioles might be the only other team interested at this point, what with the Braves signing Troy Glaus to play 1B for them in 2010 and the Mariners nearing a deal to get Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox.

I checked out LaRoche’s career numbers in Current Corporate Name Park (AT&T, at present).  They are terrific (1.227 OPS), but in only 50 career plate appearances, they don’t mean much.  I was surprised at how little LaRoche played in San Francisco in his six year career, almost all of it in the National League, but then I remembered the new weighted schedules.  Teams in the NL East and Central don’t play the West teams all that much any more.

LaRoche may or may not be a success in San Francisco.  I would expect his yearly HR totals to drop in AT&T Park, because it’s a tough homerun park for left-handed hitters who aren’t Barry Bonds on steroids.  However, LaRoche appears to have tremendous alley power (43 doubles and 28 HRs per every 600 ABs over the course of his career).  With AT&T’s “death valley” in right-center, he should hit a lot of long doubles there.

Unfortunately, they will likely only be long doubles.  With seven career triples and 4 career stolen bases (in twelve attempts), LaRoche isn’t likely to leg out many triples no matter how far the ball roles.

The problem for the Giants in signing LaRoche is where they will then play Pablo Sandoval and Mark DeRosa.  DeRosa can play left field, but doesn’t hit enough for a left fielder.  Sandoval is a great ball player and a great athlete for a wide-load (at age 22 last year, he was listed at 5′11″ and 246 lbs, but probably weighed closer to 260 at his heaviest), but the outfield is not a great choice for a man who has to move as much girth around as he does.

If the Giants do sign LaRoche, the best defensive alignment probably would be DeRosa at 3B and Sandoval in LF.  Sandoval is one of those guys I suspect could do a servicable job just about anywhere on the diamond and wouldn’t complain about it so long as he gets paid and gets his four or five ABs a game.

Somewhat to my surprise, the Giants are allowing Pablo to play winter ball in Latin America this year.  Usually, once a player becomes an MLB star, the team that owns his rights won’t let him play winter ball for fear of injury.  In Pablo’s case, the Giants probably figure he’d be out playing sandlot ball on the sly somewhere if they didn’t let him play in a professional league.  They probably also figure that letting Pablo play baseball every day year ’round is the only way to have Pablo come into 2010 Spring Training weighing less than 250 lbs.