Orioles' Nolan Reimold a Solid Option, but Not a 2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

The Orioles Nolan Reimold is a player who burst onto the Major League scene in 2009, causing quite a few people to have lofty expectations.  That’s what 15 home runs in just 358 at bats can do for you.  Can he maintain that type of production?  Could he be a must use option in all formats?  Let’s look at the numbers and take a look:

358 At Bats
.279 Batting Average (100 Hits)
15 Home Runs
45 RBI
49 Runs
8 Stolen Bases
.365 On Base Percentage
.466 Slugging Percentage
.320 Batting Average on Balls in Play

He’ll be 26-years old entering 2010 and last year’s power came courtesy of a flyball rate of 37.3 percent and a HR/FB of 14.2 percent.  Over his minor league career he posted a flyball rate of 49.0 percent, so there certainly is the potential for the power to continue to evolve, though don’t bank on it.

He’s had some huge swings in flyball rates over the past three seasons:

• 2007 (Rookie and Double-A) - 42.6 percent
  
• 2008 (Double-A) - 50.6 percent
  
• 2009 (Triple-A) - 36.5 percent
  

That type of variation makes it impossible to think that he will absolutely put the ball in the air on a more consistent basis (especially since the lower numbers came in the Majors and at Triple-A), though he has shown the type of power he did last season.

He hit 79 home runs in 1,512 at bats over his minor league career, about a home run every 19 at bats.  Last season he was at about a home run every 24 at bats.  The diminished flyballs certainly help to justify the drop.

I wouldn’t expect his power to diminish from 2009, but I wouldn’t expect him to increase significantly either.

While he strikes out his fair share, it isn’t an outrageous number either.  He struck out 21.5 percent of the time, compared to a walk rate of 11.6 percent.  That good eye helped him post a realistic BABIP of .320, meaning his average was very realistic.

The Orioles lineup is improving, with the additions of Reimold and Matt Wieters, joining Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Brian Roberts.  Last season he hit primarily in the fifth spot of the order, which should give him a good chance to drive in plenty of runs.

The 45 last season could easily be 90+ in 2010 if he maintains that spot in the order, which he should.

The runs scored, however, could falloff a little bit.  While the Orioles are strong in the top five spots, the rest of the order is likely to be mediocre in the early part of the season.  Could Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, and Garrett Atkins produce? 

Yes, it’s possible, but it’s certainly no guarantee.  He gave the impression of being a solid source of runs scored last season, but you certainly shouldn’t count on that.

So, let’s take a look at what I have him projected at for 2010:

.270 (135-500), 22 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R, 10 SB, .311 BABIP, .353 OBP, .480 SLG

As you can see, I’m expecting Reimold to produce at a similar pace as he did last season.  That’s solid, though not spectacular.  For those in shallower formats he’s a bench option with upside, but nothing more than that.  If he can get the flyball rate up, the power is going to be more impressive, so keep that in mind, but his huge swings make it difficult to anticipate.

As for those in five outfielder formats, he’s a solid option in the late rounds to fill out your roster.  His current ADP is around 230, making him the 54th outfielder off the board.  That fits right in with my projection.

What are your thoughts?  Do you expect more from him?  How many home runs are you expecting?

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