2007-2008 NBA Preview: Spurs Look to Repeat

Roguish referees. Sexual harassment lawsuits. Disgruntled superstars with no-trade clauses demanding trades.

Is David Stern sure he wants to globalize this product?

The past several months haven't been kind to the NBA, but the '07-'08 season promises brighter days.

There are some talented veterans with new addresses on the Eastern seaboard, but the majority of the league’s best squads are still found in the Western Conference. That said, the Finals shouldn't be nearly as anticlimactic as the San Antonio vs. LeBron matchup we saw this past June.

We can only hope.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

ATLANTIC DIVISION

1. Boston Celtics

Three perennial All-Stars 30 and over, a 21-year-old PG to get them the ball, a lightly-regarded coach, and a populace accustomed to winning.

Think there’s a little pressure on Doc Rivers?

No championship guarantees here, but they’ll be in the hunt barring extended injuries to Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Count on Ray Allen to miss some time.

Though they could certainly do worse than Rajon Rondo at the point (see Telfair, Sebastian), they’ll also have to find a way to keep Kendrick Perkins on the court and Tony Allen under control. Brian Scalabrine provides comic relief as well as an occasional triple.

Still need another reliable vet off the bench.

Prediction: 51-31

2. New Jersey Nets

Health and Vince Carter’s shot selection will determine things.

Nice to have the efficient Richard Jefferson and Nenad Krstic back healthy, but if the newly-signed VC insists on hoisting 30-footers, it won’t matter much.

Jason Kidd is still around to run the show, and new big Jamal Magloire provides some much-needed muscle down low, as well as the obligatory airball from the free throw line. The bench is solid with the underrated Bostjan Nachbar, Marcus Williams and first-round pick Sean Williams. Jason Collins will once again finish the season with more fouls than points, but is a valuable help defender.

Provided the Nets aren’t in violation of child labor laws by employing coach Lawrence Frank, they’ll be a tough out in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Prediction: 48-34

3. Toronto Raptors

Won’t sneak up on anyone this time, but might be even better.

With a true star in Chris Bosh in their camp, surrounded by another big man on the rise in Andrea Bargnani and a potent PG combo in T.J. Ford and the heady Jose Calderon, the Raptors can shoot you out of the gym.

Jason Kapono is on board to help spread the floor, and the fearless Carlos Delfino strengthens the bench. Might lack the interior toughness required for postseason success, but have mastered the up-tempo style enough to overcome it most nights during the regular season.

Prediction: 46-36

4. New York Knicks

The latest roster addition, PF Zach Randolph, coming off a “23 and 10” campaign, is a nice player.

But there is a reason why the Blazers were anxious to rid themselves of him and his $60 million obligation.

There’s also a reason why Phoenix wanted to get rid of Stephon Marbury (attitude and huge contract) and Quentin Richardson (tricky back/contract), Chicago wanted to get rid of Eddy Curry (can score but poorly-conditioned, lazy on defense and doesn’t rebound) and Jamal Crawford (poor shot selection and contract), San Antonio wanted to get rid of Malik Rose (contract), and Washington and Seattle didn’t bother to re-sign Jared Jeffries (can’t play) and Jerome James (Oliver Miller II/Mel Turpin III), respectively.

And, without mentioning the now-deposed Maurice Taylor, Jalen Rose, and Steve Francis, take a wild guess where they all wound up.

Isiah Thomas must somehow mold this cast, many of whom need the ball all the time and cannot play without it, into a cohesive unit while distributing minutes and shots. They have more than enough offensive firepower to amass some wins, but not enough basketball smarts to do it consistently.

No need to discuss defense, assists, or turnovers. Some nice young players on the roster, like David Lee and Renaldo Balkman, will have trouble getting significant minutes.

Too bad.

Prediction: 37-45

5. Philadelphia 76ers

Nice second-half run last season, primarily due to the euphoria that most basketball players experience when they actually touch the ball—a rare occurrence during the Allen Iverson/Chris Webber era.

But this is a new day, and the lack of talent will be difficult to overcome over the course of a full season. Andres Miller and Iguodala are steady and spectacular, respectively, and sharpshooter Kyle Korver gives punch off the bench, but shot-blocker Sam Dalembert can’t shake the injury bug, and there’s a huge hole at SG.

Talented rookies Jason Smith and Thaddeus Young will have to grow up quickly; slithery 6’1” SG Louis Williams simply needs to grow.

Prediction: 25-57

 

CENTRAL DIVISION

1. Detroit Pistons

With the veteran core intact, the Pistons are assembling a nice collection of young legs as well.

Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson all have a chance to crack the rotation. Still, after watching slow centers drive effortlessly around Chris Webber, it’s clear the team has been adversely affected by the absence of Ben Wallace.

Now it’s Rasheed’s turn to man the middle, and there’s enough veteran experience around for a few more playoff runs. Perhaps Flip Saunders might even get invited to a practice or two.

Prediction: 52-30

2. Chicago Bulls

Must be nice to be rewarded for making the playoffs the last two years with lottery picks.

Young, hard-nosed team with that added young size—Joakim Noah and Aaron Gray—to their already potent perimeter. Assuming they don’t bust up the roster to acquire Kobe Bryant, the young vets Gordon, Deng, and Hinrich, plus vets Ben Wallace—a 2006 free agent signing made possible by dumping the contracts of Eddy Curry and Jamal Crawford on Isiah Thomas while getting two lottery picks for good measure—and Andres Nocioni are back for more aggression.

Sophs Tyrus Thomas, off a nice playoff run, and Thabo Sefalosha will rate minutes, too. Still lacking a low-post scorer, but a dangerous team.

Prediction: 50-32

3. Cleveland Cavs

As time goes by, we’ll develop a greater appreciation of what LeBron James accomplished last year by getting this crew to the NBA Finals, weak conference notwithstanding.

Andy Varejao—who has apparently lost his mind—thinks he’s the one responsible for the run and allegedly wants $9-10 mil per year for his efforts. His absence weakens the bench, and the lack of roster moves amid conference-wide improvement doesn’t bode well.

A return to form by Larry Hughes and rapid improvement from Daniel Gibson and the athletic but wild Shannon Brown would help.

Prediction: 44-38

4. Milwaukee Bucks

Another team destroyed by injuries, but defense is still a foreign concept.

Offensively potent with Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Charlie Villanueva, and Andrew Bogut, along with a scrapper in Desmond Mason. They also have some reluctant parties in rookie Yi Jianlian and the re-upped Charlie Bell.

A soft group that needs to scour the waiver wires in search of a designated banger.

Prediction: 35-47

5. Indiana Pacers

First-year coach Jim O’Brien will go up-tempo, feature 3-point shooting, and stress defense, but this team’s fortunes will be dictated by the mental and physical state of the star player, Jermaine O’Neal.

The Pacers could surprise if youngsters like Danny Granger, Shawne Williams, and Ike Diogu emerge, Troy Murphy returns to his pre-Don Nelson days, Jamal Tinsley stays healthy and thrives in the open court, and any contribution from Mike Dunleavy, Jr. is gladly accepted as a windfall.

That’s a lot to ask. Names like Kareem Rush and Travis Diener are being mentioned as important cogs. Scary.

Prediction: 30-52

 

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

1. Washington Wizards

Injuries and dueling centers were a bit much to overcome last year, but with the three stars healthy and some reinforcements on the way, there’s no reason to think the Wizards won’t be playing in early May.

Pencil in Arenas—now in his contract year—for scoring and lousy shot selection, with Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler ringing up impressive numbers as well. DeShawn Stevenson is the “glue guy”, while youngsters like Nick Young and skilled big man Andray Blatche might be ready to contribute.

However, defensive apathy and lack of productivity in the low post will once again prevent a deep playoff run.

Prediction: 49-33

2. Orlando Magic

Now that Stan Van Gundy has been untied, he’ll have a chance to make an impact with Dwight Howard, who will team up with Rashard Lewis—a free agent signing made possible by dumping Steve Francis’ contract on Isiah Thomas—to form a potent inside-outside combo.

The loss of Grant Hill, even if he seldom suited up, will be felt. The loss of Brian Hill, however, will not.

Improved play from Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick is a must, and the Magic could use more inside help for Howard, perhaps from Adonal Foyle.

We’ll soon find out why two teams have given up on Darko Milicic already. Trevor Ariza, also acquired in the Francis trade, provides energy off the bench.

Prediction: 42-40

3. Miami Heat

Master motivator Pat (“The Winner Within”) Riley, who has never won a title without Magic AND Kareem or Shaq AND Wade in his corner, and conveniently stuffed Stan Van Gundy into a vault with a sock in his mouth while taking credit for the Heat title two years ago, will somehow try to perform miracles with the likes of Jason Williams, Ricky Davis and Smush Parker.

That said, the healthy return of Dwyane Wade and more than a half-season from Shaq would still put this team in the postseason and up the value of workers like Udonis Haslem.

Team FG percentage already up as a result of dealing Antoine Walker.

Prediction: 41-41

4. Atlanta Hawks

The trendy pick to have a breakout season still might be a year away.

Thankfully, the availability of a second lottery pick enabled them to select a floor general, Acie Law IV, who will assume the role once Speedy Claxton injures his knee.

Joe Johnson is a star, Josh Smith is an attitude away from becoming one, and rookie Al Horford looks to be ready for big minutes. Still must find minutes for Marvin Williams and Josh Childress, less for Tyronn Lue.

This is the year Mike Woodson must deliver.

Prediction: 36-46

5. Charlotte Bobcats

Cats have already lost two “rotation” guys for the season in Adam Morrison and Sean May.

Added erratic Jason Richardson, who will deliver scoring punch, and wisely re-signed Gerald Wallace. PG Ray Felton no longer shares time with Brevin Knight and now must get the FG percentage up.

Walter Herrmann and Matt Carroll step in for Morrison on the perimeter. Okafor will miss May’s presence inside, and Jeff McInnis is currently the backup PG, presumably to provide “veteran leadership.”

Not good.

Prediction: 33-49

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

1. San Antonio Spurs

While the masses were caught up in the run-and-stun antics of Dallas, Phoenix, and Golden State, the Spurs were methodically clamping down on opponents and, with a little help from the suits in the league office, were able to raise the trophy once again.

Duncan, Ginobli and Parker are in their prime, though support like Horry and Finley are about done. Coach Pop will continue to drive them hard.

Prediction: 58-24

2. Dallas Mavericks

Dallas’ petition to have the Golden State Warriors moved to the Eastern Conference was rejected, but the playoff series exposed several flaws in this 67-win unit.

The lack of a veteran floor general—coach Avery Johnson would have fit the role perfectly—was evident and was not addressed during the offseason. Devin Harris is not the answer.

They’d be better off winning 55 games and leaving the expectations to others.

Dirk Nowitzki now labeled a “choker”, which is a bit harsh. With Josh Howard and Jason Terry still around, they’ll bounce back.

Prediction: 54-28

3. Houston Rockets

With the shackles of JVG removed, Houston fans now get the other extreme, going from offensive ineptitude to defensive indifference under new coach Rick Adelman.

Shane Battier is still around to guard all five opponents, and the PG minutes will be split between Rafer Alston, Mike James, and Steve Francis. Mercy. Fortunately, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady—now trying to shake the “loser” tag—are still around.

Bonzi Wells hangs around for minutes too, and might be a sleeper. Luis Scola looks to man the PF slot. If nothing else, the Rockets will be more exciting to watch

Prediction: 47-35

4. New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul now has a couple of shooters to spot on the perimeter after breaking down defenses and ankles in Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson, while Tyson Chandler and David West do the dirty work inside.

Bobby Jackson, Hilton Armstrong and rookie Julian Wright head a mediocre bench corps. Nice squad who will battle for one of the last two playoff spots.

Prediction: 42-40

5. Memphis Grizzles

Marc Iavaroni puts in the “Phoenix Offense,” which is not for everyone.

Damon Stoudamire will run the show until Mike Conley, Jr. is ready, which, in the coach’s eyes, will be sometime around Thanksgiving. Pau Gasol and Mike Miller are back strong and should thrive in the new system, while Rudy Gay, Stromile Swift, and Hakim Warrick look for consistency.

The Grizz will be better, but will have trouble cracking 40 wins.

Prediction: 34-48

 

NORTHWEST DIVISION

1. Utah Jazz

Ultra solid at PG, C, and PF. Could be equally set at SF if Kirilenko finds peace with the unrelenting Jerry Sloan, one of the best in the business.

SG has been a problem spot for years, but second-year gunner Ronnie Brewer will get a crack at it, with rookie Morris Almond looking for minutes.

While Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur are set, the loss of Derek Fisher’s leadership will hurt some. Matt Harpring and Paul Millsap bring toughness off the bench. Here’s yet another tough playoff opponent in the Western Conference.

Prediction: 50-32

2. Denver Nuggets

Full season with Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, with Kenyon Martin back along with Nene, Camby, and for now, J.R. Smith.

Lots of talent, but almost as combustible as the Knicks.

Still not set at PG with Chucky Atkins injured; other option is Anthony Carter or AI himself. Past Eduardo Najera the bench is not very deep.

George Karl already begging the team to defend, as he did unsuccessfully in Milwaukee. Only Camby is listening, but should lock up a playoff spot.

Prediction: 45-37

3. Portland Trailblazers

Bad news: Greg Oden out for the season. Good news: Blazers are likely to get another lottery pick, which they can use to fill the hole at SF.

Will be fun to watch this team grow with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster, etc. We’ll also find out why Channing Frye’s first word upon learning of his trade from the Knicks was, “Hallelujah!”

Still not a playoff team, even with Oden, but in two years, when these young guys are ready to deal, will use the cap room freed-up by trading Zach Randolph to the Knicks to sign a solid veteran or two.

Prediction: 35-47

4. Minnesota Timberwolves

New era with Garnett gone, but they weren’t winning anyway, and probably won’t until someone rescues Kevin McHale from his managerial responsibilities.

Al Jefferson is a nice start, as is Corey Brewer. Ryan Gomes will help and Randy Foye will get some needed experience this year also. Wolves fans will shed no tears over trading Ricky Davis or the buyout of Juwan Howard.

Gerald Green, Rashard McCants, and Craig Smith will be counted on for minutes, while the newly acquired Antoine Walker provides veteran “leadership.”

Check back in a couple of years.

Prediction: 29-53

5. Seattle Supersonics

Kevin Durant arrives to give hope to a basketball city that, quite frankly, deserves better than the Bob Weiss/Bob Hill-led squads they’ve been subjected to in recent years.

Jeff Green is a good addition though probably not looking at superstardom. PG would be fine if Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour could be combined into one. No star quality at the power positions with Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison, and Chris Wilcox, but each could help a contender.

Center Robert Swift will help when fully recovered from the torn ACL. Rough times ahead for new coach P.J. Carlesimo.

Prediction: 26-56

 

PACIFIC DIVISION

1. Phoenix Suns

Still reeling from the playoff defeat at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs, the Suns add Grant Hill, Brian Skinner, and D.J. Strawberry to the already lethal mix.

Shawn Marion is back, as is Amare Stoudemire, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Leandro Barbosa. Defense still needs improvement, but the catalyst remains Steve Nash, a 2004 free agent signing made possible by dumping the contracts of Stephon Marbury and Penny Hardaway on Isiah Thomas.

Should do no worse than the Western Conference Finals.

Prediction: 59-23

2. Golden State Warriors

Not a championship contender—Don Nelson-coached teams never are—but a team no one wants to face in the postseason.

Baron Davis is a top-flight player when healthy and in shape. Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes form the perimeter, while Andris Biedrins does the dirty work inside.

Add the speedy Troy Hudson and rookie sharpshooter Marco Belinelli to the track team and opponents should get ready to huff and puff.

It’s difficult, however, to imagine the Warriors not feeling the loss of Jason Richardson.

Prediction: 46-36

3. L.A. Lakers

Anyone else wonder what Kobe Bryant looks like when he’s happy?

Had the entire package—championships and recognition as one of the game’s best—but it still wasn’t enough. Wanted all the glory, too.

Exit Shaquille O’Neal, enter Andrew “Bleeping” Bynum.

Now wants to be traded to a contender, apparently not realizing the pieces that make those teams contenders will be the cost of obtaining him.

His best bet is to stay where he is, let guys like Bynum, Luke Walton, and Javaris Crittendon grow, hope guys like Kwame Brown and Brian Cook figure things out, learn to get the best out of the multi-skilled Lamar Odom, and handg out with one of the game’s best coaches in Phil Jackson.

Championships are not a birthright.

Prediction: 44-38

4. L.A Clippers

The Clippers are back. Those impostors who were making playoff appearances and having Hollywood stars show up at Staples Center when the Lakers WEREN’T playing have left the building.

The franchise is now as jinxed as ever.

With cornerstones Shaun Livingston and Elton Brand both out with devastating injuries, injury-prone guards Sam Cassell and Brevin Knight will run the show, and the underachieving Tim Thomas (also injured) will get the bulk of Brand’s minutes.

Center Chris Kaman tries to rebound from a subpar season, Cuttino Mobley is on the decline and Corey Maggette wants to—and should—start. Rookie Al Thornton has turned some heads in the preseason.

Is the LA Sports Arena still renting out?

Prediction: 33-49

5. Sacramento Kings

Former UNLV Runnin’ Rebel and NBA star Reggie Theus brings an iron hand to Northern California, preaching discipline and defensive responsibility.

Let’s just hope Spencer Hawes’ uncle Steve or Mike Bibby’s father Henry, both former NBA-ers, don’t remember Reggie getting buried on the bench for almost an entire season by Bulls coach Kevin Loughery for defensive apathy.

While Reggie isn’t the first matador to preach defense upon joining the coaching ranks, he’ll have his hands full with this deficient group of stoppers. Ron Artest will get in the stance when he’s on the court—another uncertainty.

Bibby is now injured. Beyond that, it's Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kevin Martin, Mikki Moore, and the youngsters. Another long year in Sacramento.

Prediction: 30-52

Finals: San Antonio over Chicago in 6