FIESTA BOWL PREVIEW: TCU VS. BOISE STATE

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU, January 4, 2010, Glendale, Arizona

Psychology: Extremely complex psychological situation here- two undefeated teams from outside the BCS establishment seek revenge against the big boys by facing off against…each other? Hmmmm. How’s that supposed to work? Kind of a no-win situation for the mid-majors- the loser drops down a notch and the winner doesn’t really prove anything vis-à-vis the BCS system that excluded them. In looking for the psychological edge, let’s remember that, while TCU was at least considered a reasonable candidate for the BCS Championship game, equally undefeated Boise State wasn’t even in the conversation. This gives the Broncos a reason to hate TCU. TCU, on the other hand, is busy hating Texas. And therein lies the dilemma- they’re not playing Texas. Advantage Boise.  

What to Expect from TCU: Perfection. At least that’s what’s they’ve delivered so far. This is a team seemingly without a weakness. They finished fifth in the nation in total offense. They finished first in the nation in defense (third against the run, fourth against the pass). Once again, that’s not in the conference, that’s not among non-BCS schools, that’s in the nation. They had the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in QB Andy Dalton and they had not only the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, but the winner of the Ted Hendricks Award given to the nation’s best defensive end in Jerry Hughes. The offense has great balance, with a stable of effective backs and receivers who all share a piece of the action due to the efficient execution and decision-making ability of Dalton (22 TD’s, 5 picks). The defense has incredible speed, which they used to hold every team on their schedule below their season averages with four teams relegated to their season-worst yardage output. 

What to Expect from Boise State: Boise does almost everything well. Emphasis here on almost. Hard to argue with their offense, which led the nation with 44.2 points per game. While TCU’s Dalton is impressive for his efficiency on offense, Boise’s Kellen Moore is even better, with the nation’s best QB rating and a TD-INT ratio of 39-3. Defensively, on the other hand, Boise has shown some alarming vulnerabilities later in the season. After an outstanding early performance in the season-opening win over Oregon, the Broncos regressed. The only thing that saved them was their ability to force turnovers (21 in the last seven games). But can they expect to live off the turnover against TCU? It’s also worth noting that Boise is the less healthy team here, expected to be without a starter at fullback, another at middle linebacker, a top-four running back and a top-three receiver. 

Prediction: Both teams are efficient and productive on offense, but TCU holds a significant advantage defensively. They key will be turnovers. While Dalton takes care of the ball, the Horned Frogs have shown a propensity for the fumble (six lost in the last three games). Considering Boise’s proven ability to create turnovers, this is a concern. Assuming TCU solves this problem, they pull away in the second half. TCU 34-24.