TCU-Boise State Picks More Immediate Concern Than NFL Playoff Odds 2010

The NFL playoffs 2010 wild card round starts this weekend. SportsBook has odds on them all. The Jets vs. Bengals has Cincinnati laying 2.5. The Eagles vs. Cowboys sees Dallas laying four points. The Ravens vs. Patriots has New England a 3.5 point favorite. The Packers vs. Cardinals rematch has Arizona laying 2.5.

But it’s the college version of Monday Night football, the Fiesta Bowl spread between Boise State vs. TCU. Texas Christian is laying 7.5 with a total of 53.5 at BetUs Sportsbook . Here is the official betting preview.

Boise State is 13-0 straight up with an 8-5 against the spread record. TCU is 12-0 straight up and 8-4 against the spread. The Broncos enter going over 4-of-5 and TCU over four straight.

Boise State is above average in the six main key indicators used by professional bettors. They get 5.3 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.9, 8.3 passing yards per attempt to 7.6 and 6.7 yards per play to 6.1.

On defense they permit 3.9 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.4, 5.7 passing yards per attempt to 7.0, 4.8 yards per play to 5.6.

Not surprisingly, the Horned Frogs numbers show they are undefeated for a reason. They get 5.3 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.3, 9.0 passing yards per attempt to 7.1, and 6.5 to 5.5 yards per play.

TCU allows 2.6 yards per rush to teams normally getting 3.8, 5.1 passing yards per attempt to 6.7 and 3.8 yards per pass to 5.2.

Against the spread records: Boise State is 31-12 against teams with a winning record and 10-1 opponent allows a completion percentage of 48 percent or less. The Broncos are also 39-15 off consecutive straight up wins.

TCU is 10-1 after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. They are 9-0 after allowing 75 or less rushing yards per game.

OffshoreInsiders.com sportswriter Shea Matthews offers his view.

The TCU Horned Frogs are the favorite in this matchup for good reasons. They didn’t just stumble into the country’s No. 1 defense; they earned it by overcoming some tough matchups throughout the season. Among their standouts are defensive end Jerry Hughes, who rushes the passer as well as anyone in the nation, and linebackers Tank Carder and Daryl Washington.

Because TCU’s “D” is so outstanding, the offense only has to be adequate. Junior quarterback Andrew Dalton went above and beyond what was asked of him this season, throwing 22 touchdown passes versus five picks and earning MWC Player of the Year honors. He makes few mistakes and moves his feet well; he joined three other TCU teammates as a 500-yard rusher this season.

Offensively, there’s no comparing TCU to Boise State, however. The Broncos are thrilling to watch, having scored 40 or more points in seven straight games. Kellen Moore had a video-game like 39-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and three different Boise State players scored at least 14 times this season.

In the end, I make my sports betting pick based on who wants or needs the win more. Boise State’s season is already a resounding success and it has more national title dreams ahead. This was supposed to be TCU’s year, however. The Horned Frogs arguably earned the spot currently occupied by Texas in the national title game and they’re angry about it. Their defense should arrive at the Fiesta Bowl fired up and their offense will do enough to give them a lead. Boise State will still put points on the board but a 40-spot is out of the question. Matthews concludes: I like TCU to cover in a major statement game.