After watching the SEC Championship Game and the Big 12 Championship Game, I was pretty convinced that Alabama would be the 2010 BCS National Champions.
The Crimson Tide rolled through Florida, while Texas squeaked by Nebraska in the final seconds.
So why do I now believe that the Longhorns will win the BCS National Championship?
It is well-known that both of these teams have their strengths. Texas, led by Heisman finalist quarterback Colt McCoy and star wide receiver Jordan Shipley, has an exceptional passing attack. The Longhorns are ranked 11th in the FBS in passing yards.
In contrast, Alabama likes to pound it out on the ground. The Crimson Tide, led by Heisman-winning running back Mark Ingram, have the eighth ranked rushing offense in the FBS.
However, each team's defense can counter the other team's offense. Texas has the top ranked rushing defense in the country. Alabama's pass defense is ranked 13th in the FBS.
On paper, this appears to be a rather even matchup.
However, when you take a look at Alabama's schedule, things begin to change.
This year, the Tide have faced only one pass offense in the top 40 of the FBS (Arkansas). The average ranking of the pass offenses Alabama has faced is 67.25. And that doesn't include the Crimson Tide's game against FCS opponent Chattanooga.
Even though Alabama's defense has a reputation for being stout, they have yet to be tested by a prolific pass offense like the Longhorns'.
Many argue that Alabama will ride the momentum from their SEC Championship victory over Florida to a BCS Championship. After all, Texas didn't beat Nebraska very convincingly. Alabama should feel pretty confident after defeating the "undefeatable" Florida Gators.
Maybe a bit too confident.
We all know Nick Saban is a great coach and will stress to his team to stay humble. However, after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship last year and redeeming themselves this year, you know the Tide are feeling proud of themselves. But will that pride get in the way?
Also, let's think about Alabama's season. Their best performance of the entire season came against Florida. Can the Crimson Tide duplicate that performance? Can Greg McElroy keep his composure in a game of this magnitude?
In my opinion, there are a lot of questions surrounding Alabama. Texas, to me, has more certainties. We know that the Longhorns will throw the ball. We know that they have something to prove after a questionable victory over Nebraska.
Maybe I'm just not the gambling type.
But I like to be sure about my decisions. Picking Texas is a safe decision to me, even when the majority of people are picking Alabama. I know what to expect from the Longhorns.
If Alabama performs like they did against Florida, the Tide will walk away the 2010 BCS National Champions. However, I just can't see the Crimson Tide putting up another performance like that. Therefore, I am going to pick the Texas Longhorns to be the 2010 BCS National Champions. Final score: Texas 27, Alabama 21.
The game will air on Thursday, January 7, at 8:00 PM Eastern on ABC.