Times Have Changed, Or How to Build a Last Place Club

I noticed that right-handed set-up man Danys Baez just signed a two-year contract with the Phillies (at least that’s what ESPN reported on December 31 — it hasn’t been confirmed yet).  The amount of the contract has not been reported.  However, I suspect it’s for a good deal less than $9 million.

The reason I picked that number is because on November 28, 2006, Baez signed a three-year $19 million deal with the Orioles.  In retrospect (and hindsight being 20/20), it was a stunningly bad move.

In 2007, Baez posted an ugly, ugly 6.44 ERA in 53 relief appearances.  He then missed the entire 2008 season after having elbow surgery.  He finally had a solid, but unspectacular, year in 2009, posting a 4.02 ERA in 59 games.

Having written about Justin Miller in the immediately preceding post, I note that Baez has apparently received two years guaranteed from the Phillies while Miller got a minor league deal from the Dodgers.  I have a hard time telling the two apart, except that Miller has pitched better since the start of 2007, even acknowledging that they really weren’t much different in 2009, once you take their home parks and leagues into account.

The two right-handers were born 14 days apart in 1977.  The one big difference between the two is that Baez was fortunate enough to play for some pretty lousy teams that were so desperate they made him their closer.

From 2003-2005, Baez recorded an impressive 96 saves for the Indians and Rays.  However, over the three year period, Baez’s ERAs were 3.81, 3.57 and 2.81.  In 2006, Baez pitched for the Dodgers and the Braves (mostly the Dodgers) and finished the year with an unimpressive 4.53 ERA.  However, at the end of 2006, the Orioles thought he was worth $19 million.

Times have changed, indeed.  However, the tales of Justin Miller and Danys Baez do say a lot about the degree of luck that makes players stars or turns them into guys with minor league contracts going into the season.

Baez was on the right teams at the right times, and racked up some good save numbers, which made him a star.  Actually, Baez was not a terrible closer: in his three seasons in that role, he finished 9th, 6th and 5th in the AL in saves, and among the top ten AL relievers in saves in each of those three years, his ERAs ranked 6th, 7th and 8th.  However, his ratios indicate that he really wasn’t closer material, at least not on a play-off-caliber team.

Baez hasn’t pitched especially well since 2005, yet the remembrance of him as a “star” gets him two guaranteed seasons from the NL Champion Phillies.  Miller gets a minor league deal from the Dodgers, a wealthy team that seems temporarily paralyzed by the McCourt divorce saga.  Sometimes, life is not fair.