Alamo Bowl Prediction: Simply Stated

VS.

MICHIGAN STATE                 TEXAS TECH
                       Saturday, Jan. 2 - 9 p.m. ET
                    San Antonio, Texas - Alamodome
                                        TV: ESPN


Analysis.. Analysis.. Analysis..
All I read is MSU this, Texas Tech that.   Bla..Bla.. Bla.. 
Some Bloggers are making it really difficult to read about it.. and laying on too much detail
Let me simplify this for you…

You have two good teams going up against one another.  Both teams have had had their share of turmoil. Spartans:  players suspended and kick off the team from what looks like an altercation after being egged on by a Frat.  Texas Tech: fired their coach for, what seems to be unsportsman like and unprofessional treatment of a injured player.

Texas Tech likes to throw: see the stats I posted the day of the bowl bids..   Spartans have had a hard time defending the pass.   But, since we are dealing with skilled athletes and programs on both sides, any miscue on either side of the ball could spell disaster. And anything can change… 

BUT:  Based simply on the past stats plus add in a little Spartan Homerism..  I predict a close game, yet a Spartan loss.  Yes, I love my Spartans, and do think Dantonio is one of the best things to happen to MSU in the last ten years… but…. 

Prediction:
Texas Tech:         35
Michigan State:     30

Initial thoughts that still hold true..
1) I Believe Coach Mark Dantonio is doing the RIGHT thing with the suspension of the players.
2) The Red Raiders pass like crazy…  And the Spartans haven’t had a real good pass “D” this year…. And the suspensions won’t help any…
3) TT has less than 1000 yrds rushing this year, and 100 less attempts than MSU…
4) They have 35 passing TDs to the Spartans 26..   But, to get 9 more TDs, they had over 220 more attempts.
5) Spartans have only allowed 13 sacks.. very stingy and good protection…
6) Once again, Red Raiders air out the ball..  this might be /could be a problem…..
7) Spartans will be ready to play, and are headed to Texas to win... Make no mistake about it..
8) MSU is headed to a Bowl.. unlike other local teams....
9) Spartan QB Cousins has a much higher QB Effec. rating...

TEAM STATISTICS              TT               MSU
SCORING               440      355
   Points Per Game     36.7     29.6
FIRST DOWNS           304      245
   Rushing             65       79
   Passing            218      147
   Penalty             21       19
RUSHING YARDAGE       973     1631
   Yards gained rushing 1319  1838
   Yards lost rushing 346      207
   Rushing Attempts   288      387
   Average Per Rush     3.4      4.2
   Average Per Game    81.1    135.9
   TDs Rushing         22       14
PASSING YARDAGE      4568     3254
   Comp-Att-Int     410-615-16  235-393-10
   Average Per Pass     7.4      8.3
   Average Per Catch   11.1     13.8
   Average Per Game   380.7    271.2
   TDs Passing         35       26
TOTAL OFFENSE        5541     4885
   Total Plays        903      780
   Average Per Play   6.1        6.3
   Average Per Game  461.8     407.1
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards  42-1028 47-1253
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards  24-235  23-192
INT RETURNS: #-Yards   8-34     5-65
KICK RETURN AVERAGE   24.5     26.7
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE    9.8      6.8 
INT RETURN AVERAGE     4.2     13
FUMBLES-LOST          25-12    14-8
PENALTIES-Yards     111-959    76-665
   Average Per Game  79.9      55.4
PUNTS-Yards         44-1781    59-2440
   Average Per Punt  40.5      41.5
   Net punt average  35.0      36.4
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game 28:41  28:53:00
3RD-DOWN Conversions  64/156  56/153
   3rd-Down Pct          41%   37%
4TH-DOWN Conversions  20/29    6/11
   4th-Down Pct          69%   55%
SACKS BY-Yards         40-255  34-213
MISC YARDS               0     13
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED       59     43
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS   9-11    19-21
ON-SIDE KICKS          0-2      1-2
RED-ZONE SCORES      45-53 85%  34-42 835
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS  38-53 72%  23-42 555
PAT-ATTEMPTS         55-56 98%  40-41 98%



                                                                NCAA  - National Ranking
Category                 Spartans   Red Raiders
Rushing Offense             79       115
Passing Offense             26         2
Total Offense               41         7
Scoring Offense             44         9
Rushing Defense             24        37
Pass Efficiency Defense     96        34
Total Defense               62        47
Scoring Defense             61       T-36
Net Punting                 47        73
Punt Returns                67       T-49
Kickoff Returns              6        17
Turnover Margin             94       T-94
Pass Defense               103        72
Passing Efficiency          17        25
Sacks                       12         2
Tackles For Loss            69        30
Sacks Allowed               16        92


Sparty On .. talk to you after the game...