2007-08 NBA Preview: Pacific Division

1) Phoenix Suns

With Shawn Marion grumbling, Steve Nash aging, Amare Stoudemire’s knees suffering, and not much young talent on the roster, the Suns' window of opportunity may be closing.

This season, they’ll still be the Suns everybody knows and loves: Nash consistently making brilliant decisions, Stoudemire filling lanes perfectly, Marion excelling in nearly every aspect of the game, and the rest of the gunners running in transition.

But the same problems still exist in the Valley of the Sun.

Mike D’Antoni still hasn’t committed to any sort of team-wide defensive scheme, and the offense is way too Nash-centric—which is a problem when Nash is exposed to bigger, more physical defenders.

Marion and Raja Bell dedicate themselves on defense, and while Nash can’t defend his shadow, he's a crafty defensive player.

That said, the Suns don’t preach defense as a necessity, their rotations are nonexistent, and their basket protectors—Stoudemire and Boris Diaw—are completely inept.

At least Kurt Thomas could be counted on to defend the West’s premier post scorers...but Phoenix basically gave him away.

It shouldn’t be a problem in the regular season, as the Suns have enough firepower to outgun most teams in the league.

But do the Suns have enough offensive versatility if Nash is neutralized in the playoffs? Can Stoudemire finally learn to rotate on time? Can Grant Hill keep up with his jet-setting teammates? Will the Suns play the kind of defense that will allow them to beat a team that adequately prepares for their offense?

If the Suns don’t answer those questions this season, they may never get over the hump.

 

2) Los Angeles Lakers

Despite his sometimes-justified, sometimes-petulant rants, it’s nearly impossible to envision Kobe Bryant playing on another roster this season.

And because of that, the Lakers should have more than enough to make a return to the playoffs.

The major question mark is Kobe himself.

In the last few years, there have been points at which Bryant tried too hard to be a playmaker and get teammates involved. Because of LA’s mismatched roster, he would often end up creating plays for nobody.

On the other end of the spectrum, there were games in which Kobe would try to score all of his team’s points. While he put up some scintillating performances, there was no rhythm and flow to the Laker offense—and Los Angeles would sometimes operate one-on-five.

Will Kobe find the happy medium between being too unselfish and being too shot-happy? And can Kobe get back to being the dominant defensive stopper he was during the Lakers' recent glory run?

If not, even just making the playoffs will be a struggle.

With Derek Fisher’s arrival, Smush Parker's departure, and Jordan Farmar's having a year of experience under his belt, the Laker offense should run more smoothly.

Fisher and Farmar will relieve Kobe of having to bring the ball up the court. Instead, expect to see more motion from the Laker offense, and a greater degree of variety as to where Kobe catches the ball and what he does with it.

Every other plus the Lakers have is accompanied by a minus.

Luke Walton remains a useful shooter, passer, and enabler who knows how to find seams in the triangle. Chris Mihm is another player who knows how to find room in the triangle to get off hooks and short jumpers.

Unfortunately, both players are unathletic defensive liabilities, and Mihm is a soft rebounder.

Lamar Odom is a talented baseline scorer, but Odom has always been soft, and he’s always worked best in one-on-one situations.

He often looks purposeless in the triangle.

Andrew Bynum is young and incredibly talented—not to mention immature and inexperienced. Whatever talents Kwame Brown has are negated by his poor work ethic, clumsy hands, and nonexistent defensive skills.

Vladimir Radmanovic and Brian Cook are both tall three-point shooters. Those are the only real skills either possesses.

If the Lakers can somehow mesh behind Kobe, they could win a playoff series or two.

But if Kobe can’t lead the team and if the supporting cast can’t get in line, the Lakers may find themselves watching the playoffs on television.

 

3) Golden State Warriors

Don’t be fooled by Golden State’s stunning first-round upset over Dallas in last season’s playoffs—the Warriors are still an all-offense, no-defense, run-amok ball club.

And while those teams are very entertaining and can win their fair share of games, they also tend to be very inconsistent.

Baron Davis is the team’s most important player. Davis is more physical than any point guard in the league, and can dominate smaller guards using his strength. He’s also athletic enough that he doesn’t need a screen to beat defenders off the dribble.

That said, Davis has always been a streaky player, only looks to pass when it will register an assist, and is a selfish, score-first point guard.

Stephen Jackson is another streaky scorer who looks to shoot first, last, and always. Like Davis, Jackson is both strong and athletic. He's always been a good individual defender because of his strength and his pride, but his concept of team defense (or team anything) is lacking.

Monta Ellis and Matt Barnes are undisciplined yet dynamic scorers with tremendous athleticism. Barnes is an ideal change of pace as a sixth man—but with Jason Richardson gone, he may end up as the starting shooting guard.

Whether Barnes succeeds in a starting role—or whether the Warriors offense lacks punch with him in the first five—is a topic to pay attention to.

Al Harrington is an athletic 4 who's adept at creating his own shots around the basket. Harrington has been prone to disappearing in games—and like most of the Warriors, is a chump on defense.

Andris Biedrins took a huge step forward last year as a rebounder, shot-blocker, and offensive anchor. With so much firepower on the roster, Biedrins doesn’t have to concentrate on improving his limited offensive game—but he does need to bulk up considerably to be the force the Warriors need in the paint.

Austin Croshere is a reliable shooter and adequate defender who may not be able to keep up with his high-flying teammates.

Marco Belinelli’s sweet-shooting, no-defense game meshes perfectly with the roster.

If the Warriors can make up Jason Richardson’s scoring, a trip to the playoffs is probable—and another upset win is possible if the Warriors draw an inferior defensive team like Denver or Phoenix, or if they get a chance to bully the Mavs again.

But all-offense, no-defense teams rarely make any noise in the postseason. And last season’s epic first-round upset may be the high point for Golden State.



4) Sacramento Kings

Is there another roster out there as mismatched as the Kings'?

The core players are either too finesse (Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim) or too rugged (Kenny Thomas, John Salmons, Ron Artest); too old (Bibby, Miller, Artest, Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore) or too young (Kevin Martin, Quincy Douby, Francisco Garcia).

And the roster is completely devoid of athletes besides Artest and Martin.

At least Bibby is clever at using screens and setting up opponents for his lethal midrange jump shot. But now he’s on the shelf for two months.

The only way this team makes the playoffs is if Martin elevates his game three levels, Artest is unselfish for the first time in his career, and the young players all develop exponentially.

Unless that happens, which it won't, the Kings will be one of the more depressing teams in the league this year.

 

5) Los Angeles Clippers

With Elton Brand, the Clips might've had enough to sneak into the playoffs with the No. 8 seed.

Without him, this season looks to be a disastrous one in Tinseltown.

Sam Cassell returns for his 15th NBA season and is unquestionably the leader of the team now that Brand's out. In the past, though, Cassell has been a cranky, selfish player on bad teams.

If the Clips don’t get out to a fast start, will Cassell sour with the losing?

Brevin Knight is a slick backup who can adequately spell Cassell for 20 minutes a night. If Knight is asked to start, his lack of size and lack of a jump shot will be exploited by opponents.

Cuttino Mobley can shoot and drive and do nothing else, while Quentin Ross can do a little of everything but shoot and drive.

Chris Kaman’s stiff game and lack of focus were hidden with Brand playing alongside him. With Kaman asked to do more to offset the loss of Brand, expect his flaws to be exposed as the year goes on.

Tim Thomas talks tough but never plays tough. Ruben Patterson plays tough, but is prone to poor decision-making, off-court troubles, and ugly jump shots.

Corey Maggette is a powerful scorer who's seemingly always at odds with the Clipper coaches and front office.

All hope this team had of making the postseason ruptured with Brand’s Achilles. The question is now this:

Do the Clippers play out the string this year and look to rebound next season with Brand, or do they play the kids at every opportunity?

The way that question is answered will determine the team the Clippers field in '08-'09.