MLB Fantasy Baseball Debate: Who Should Be the Third Overall Pick in 2010?

Eric StashinJan 1, 2010

I’m going to go under the assumption that the first two names off the board on draft day are Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez.

Yes, it’s possible that someone jumps over one of the two (most likely Ramirez), but in my mind those are the top two hitters in the game and deserve to be taken 1-2 in every single draft.

The question, then, is who comes next? There doesn’t appear to be a consensus third player off the board, rather three players with the potential to go in that slot: Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Braun. Let’s take a look at each of them in more detail to help determine whom we should be targeting:

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Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Entering his fourth season, there is little question surrounding his ability at the plate. Since debuting in 2007, Braun has three straight seasons of over 30 home runs. He’s increased his runs each year, reaching the 113 plateau in 2009. He’s also increased his RBI year-by-year, reaching 114 last season. He has speed (20 SB) and can hit for average (he’s hit .320 or better twice).

So, what’s not to like?

He spent the majority of his time hitting third last season, meaning he has Prince Fielder and his immense power hitting behind him. That means the runs scored should continue. The RBI opportunities should be there as well, especially if Alcides Escober takes over at the top of the lineup, giving the Brewers the dynamic leadoff hitter they’ve been looking for (or should I say waiting for Rickie Weeks to develop into).

The average is certainly not set in stone, as his .320 success came courtesy of a BABIP of .355. While he doesn’t strike out a significant amount (last season it was 19.1 percent), his average is likely to come down a bit. Still, .300 is quite possible.

He is an outfielder, which needs to be weighed in here. While it is a position that is not quite as deep as it once was, it still is easier to find a potential replacement in the second, third or fourth rounds. It’s the one glaring negative on an otherwise impressive resume.

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees

Long considered one of the top hitters in baseball, A-Rod did little to convince fans otherwise in 2009. With injury costing him the first month of the season (he debuted on May 8), he still managed to hit 30 homers and drive in 100 RBI, the 12th straight season he’s done so.

He was great wherever he played, but 18 of his home runs did come in the new Yankee Stadium in just 227 at-bats (64 games). Imagine what kind of numbers he’ll be able to post there if healthy and able to man third base for all 81 games?

He’s in a deep Yankees lineup, joined by names like Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira, just to name a few. Does it appear unlikely to anyone that he does not reach 100 RBI and 100 runs?

In fact, last season was the first time he hadn’t scored 100 runs since he became a regular in 1996, and that’s easily attributed to his time missed. He still scored 78, and if healthy, he likely would have reached the plateau again, or at least come incredibly close.

He’s a career .305 hitter and also should pick up at least 15-20 stole bases. He has the potential to be a 40-plus-homer hitter. He also is a third baseman, a position that was once incredibly deep but isn't really any longer. There’s potential for other players at the position, but no one (and few in the game, period) offers the same type of upside potential to match his type of production.

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies

There was fear that he was going to miss the beginning of the 2009 season, forcing him to drop down draft boards. Instead, he was ready for Opening Day and posted a monster campaign.

At second base, he does things for fantasy owners that no one else in the league does. He’s a near lock to hit over 30 homers, score 100 runs (thanks to Ryan Howard and Co. hitting behind him) and drive in 100 RBI. Of course, he fell short there in 2009, but if Jimmy Rollins can rediscover his stroke and with Placido Polanco now hitting second, a rebound should be a given.

He also adds speed, much like the other two options for the third overall pick. They should all be about equal here, picking up 15-20 or so stolen bases.

His potential downfall is his average, hitting .282 last season and failing to reach .300 each of the past two years. Before we point to his .332 average in 2007, it came courtesy of a BABIP of .368, so it’s tough to imagine him repeating it.

While there was a time that we would say that position scarcity made him more worth selecting, second base is not the shallow spot that it once was. The emergence of players like Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist have certainly helped to deepen the position, allowing you to get a good option a few rounds later if you opt to bypass Utley.

Conclusion

The first player I’d eliminate from the discussion is Utley, though it’s not because of his talent. He easily could post similar statistics to Braun and Rodriguez, but the question in the average is enough of a knock against him. Throw in the fact that the position may be deeper now than it ever has been, and it’s easy to look past him in Round One to another option.

Between the other two options, as much as I want to take Braun, Rodriguez would get my pick. The two are extremely close, but Rodriguez does play the shallower position and also is in a home park that is conducive to some lofty offensive numbers. Can you imagine the type of production he could post over a full season in that ballpark? I, for one, don’t want to risk losing that on my team.

What are your thoughts? Which of these players would you select third overall? Is there someone I left out of the discussion that deserves to be here?

Make sure to check out our full early rankings: